From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: BRICS+-Russia; Europe-Spain-China; Kazakhstan; Iran; Japan; Russia; Syria; Taiwan-Australia; US; US-China
BRICS+ – Russia
(John C. K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin was unable to attend the July 6–7 BRICS+ summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, due to the International Criminal Court (ICC)’s arrest warrant, highlighting Russia’s continued international isolation amid its war against Ukraine. The BRICS+ summit advanced Russia-backed initiatives to reduce Western dominance, including criticizing U.S. tariffs, advocating de-dollarization, and reinforcing the group’s role as an alternative to Western alliances. Despite the restrictions the Russian leadership faces on the international stage, the ICC’s effectiveness is limited, as many countries have not ratified the Rome Statute and thus do not recognize the ICC’s jurisdiction or enforce its decisions. – ICC Arrest Warrant Prevents Putin’s BRICS+ Summit Attendance – Jamestown
Europe – Spain – China
(Natasha Buckley, Pia Huesch and Jamie MacColl – The Strategist) Five years after the height of debates on banning Huawei from European 5G infrastructure, Spain has quietly handed the Chinese tech giant a contract to store and manage police wiretaps, the legal interceptions of communications ordered by Spanish judges. For €12.3 million, Huawei’s OceanStor servers will now store some of the country’s most sensitive law enforcement and intelligence data. This decision, made under Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, flies in the face of much of Europe’s approach to telecoms security and Chinese technology vendors. EU member states (including Spain) and Britain have committed to removing Huawei from sensitive 5G telecoms infrastructure, citing the company’s close ties to the Chinese Communist Party. Despite this, Spain continues to integrate Huawei into a core component of its national security apparatus. This latest contract builds on a longstanding relationship between Huawei and Spain’s legal intercept systems which stretches back to 2004. – European critical infrastructure still struggles with Chinese ICT vendors | The Strategist
Kazakhstan
(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) Kazakhstan has awarded leadership of an international consortium to construct the country’s first nuclear power plant to Russian state-owned nuclear corporation Rosatom. At the same time, Astana is courting Chinese nuclear, uranium, and water infrastructure companies to counterbalance Russia’s role. Kazakhstan’s short-term attempts to navigate Russian and Chinese involvement in the country’s critical infrastructure and energy sectors may conversely contribute to its geopolitical isolation in the long run. – Rosatom to Build Kazakhstan’s First Nuclear Power Plant (Part Two) – Jamestown
Iran
(Soufan Center) In the aftermath of the 12-day war with Israel and the U.S. strike on key nuclear facilities, Iranian leaders are under U.S. and European pressure to abandon their nuclear program outright. An internal debate between Iran’s pragmatic and hardline leaders over Iran’s responses to the strikes has escalated, clouding Western efforts to predict the course of Iran’s responses and actions. Most assessments of the Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites indicate Iran could, if it chose to, resurrect its program to pre-war levels, but the doing so would carry major strategic and political risks. The “E3” countries – Germany, France, and the United Kingdom – have threatened to trigger a reimposition of all United Nations sanctions on Iran unless it agrees to significant concessions. – Iran Wrestles with Major Decisions Following Israeli and U.S. Strikes – The Soufan Center
Japan
(Nicholas Szechenyi, Yuko Nakano, and Kristi Govella – Center for Strategic & International Studies) On July 20, Japan’s long-time ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in an election for the upper house of parliament. This comes as a major blow to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, whose party had already lost its majority in the lower house after he called a snap election in October 2024. The ruling coalition’s defeat signifies public frustration with economic and political stagnation and demonstrates the increasing appeal of populist opposition parties. The election result will prolong a period of political instability in Japan and test the nation’s capacity for decisive leadership as it confronts a range of domestic and foreign policy challenges, including tense tariff negotiations with the United States. – Japan’s Upper House Election: Prolonged Instability
(Sheila A. Smith – Council on Foreign Relations) Japan’s voters dealt Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with yet another devastating blow on Sunday, the second electoral loss since coming into office last fall. With 125 of the Upper House seats up for grabs, the ruling coalition of the LDP and smaller Komeito garnered only forty-seven seats while together the opposition parties won seventy-eight. A minority in both houses makes governing well virtually impossible. Japanese face a difficult moment. Pressures born of long term demographic pressures as well as the global consequences of a U.S. bent on imposing tariffs create difficult economic choices for Tokyo. Demands for social support for younger and older Japanese alike are increasing as the size of the workforce decreases. And, of course, Japan must cope with a monumental shift in its regional military balance and a global international order, one that favored multilateralism, is under threat. – What’s Next? Japanese Voters Hand the LDP Yet Another Loss | Council on Foreign Relations
Russia
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia is experiencing a decline in morale as its war against Ukraine enters its fourth summer, with feelings of hope and pride appearing to be replaced by indifference and fear. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s concerns about public discontent with the war are apparent in the Kremlin’s increase in information control and the severity of repression, including a new law criminalizing any internet searches for materials deemed “extremist.”. The economic situation in Russia continues to deteriorate amid budget deficits and industrial stagnation, and now faces a new EU sanctions package that institutes a price ceiling on Russian oil. – Russian Summer of Doubt and Foreboding Drags On – Jamestown
Syria
(Soufan Center) In recent weeks, Syria’s southern province of Suwayda — home to the country’s Druze minority — has been engulfed in some of the deadliest violence since the 2011 Syrian civil war. Israel intervened militarily in the conflict, citing the need to protect the Druze community, intensifying its airstrikes in southern Syria and targeting Syrian military infrastructure. So far, the U.S.-brokered ceasefire offers a fragile but critical window for de-escalation and potential reconciliation. As Syria struggles to steer itself towards stability, the consequences ripple across borders, marking the country as both a crucible and a mirror for the emerging Middle East. – Syria’s Faultlines and Regional Implications – The Soufan Center
Taiwan – Australia
(Ray Ming-Tse Lu – The Strategist) Taiwan is not a problem to be managed but a capable partner to be engaged. By working with it, Australia can promote its objectives of stability, transparency and the rules-based order. Following Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s visit to China last week for high-level talks, questions around regional security, economic interdependence, and the rules that govern the Indo-Pacific, are once again front and centre. Amid shifting power dynamics, Taiwan’s role as a pragmatic and principled partner deserves renewed attention in Australia’s regional outlook. Much of the Taiwan-Australia relationship has grown not through headline grabbing incidents, but rather through quiet, sustained connection—built by business leaders, educators, students and community networks. These ties are not abstract. They are a lived reality, closely nurtured and deeply valued on both sides. – Why Taiwan matters to Australia’s Indo-Pacific future | The Strategist
US
(Atlantic Council) The prefix comes from the Greek word “kryptos,” meaning “secret” or “hidden.” And there’s plenty about cryptocurrency that feels like secret knowledge. This week, however, the US House of Representatives sought to bring some clarity to digital currencies—or at least US regulation of them—by passing three new bills. What do you need to know about the GENIUS Act, the CLARITY Act, and the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act? – Four questions (and expert answers) on the new US cryptocurrency legislation – Atlantic Council
US – China
