From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Algeria-Mali; Armenia; Europe; IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings; Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine; Saudi Arabia; US-Houthi; US-India
Algeria – Mali
(Crisis Group) La destruction d’un drone malien par l’armée algérienne, dans la nuit du 31 mars au 1er avril, a précipité l’Algérie et le Mali dans une crise diplomatique, sur fond de fragmentation politique croissante des espaces ouest-africain et maghrébin. Dans ce Q&A, les experts de Crisis Group analysent les causes de cette querelle et évaluent les risques d’escalade. – Algérie-Mali : désamorcer une dangereuse escalade | Crisis Group
Armenia
(Onnik James Krikorian – The Jamestown Foundation) Recent local elections in the Armenian municipalities of Gyumri and Parakar revealed growing political challenges for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections. Civil Contract, the ruling party, failed to secure a majority in Gyumri and lost outright in Parakar. These results highlight Pashinyan’s declining popularity and a reinvigorated, if still divided, opposition. The outcomes complicate Pashinyan’s broader agenda, including moving closer to the European Union and normalizing relations with Azerbaijan and Türkiye. Pashinyan faces mounting pressure to restore political momentum and redefine his leadership amid a shifting domestic and international landscape, including moves to re-engage with Russia. – Armenian Local Elections a Barometer for Pashinyan’s Political Future – Jamestown
Europe
(Daniel Fried – Atlantic Council) Today, we are bombarded with evidence of rising authoritarianism and retreating liberal democracy, from Russian aggression in Europe to the democratic decline and degradation recently documented by Freedom House and the Economist Intelligence Unit. These twin trends are real and reshaping global affairs. But they do not tell the full story. Consider events that have been unfolding over the past weeks and months in countries in and around Europe, where large and in several cases sustained pro-democracy demonstrations have put some authoritarian regimes on the defensive. Before zooming in on these storylines, it’s useful to zoom out on the broader sweep of history: For two centuries, Europe has advanced toward liberal democracy in uneven cycles: in 1848, a wave of mostly unsuccessful liberal and patriotic revolts; in 1918, the establishment of mostly liberal-democratic successors to the fallen Russian and Austro-Hungarian empires in Central and Eastern Europe; in the 1920s and 1930s, a surge of authoritarian and fascist takeovers; after 1945, democratic restoration in Western Europe under Pax Americana and Soviet imposition of communism in Central and Eastern Europe; and in 1989-91, a series of mostly successful liberal and patriotic revolts in Central and Eastern Europe. The twenty-first century has featured the ascent of nationalist, populist, and illiberal politics in Western Europe along with authoritarian and illiberal challenges or regression in Central and Eastern Europe. – Four contests for democracy in Europe challenge the narrative of advancing authoritarianism – Atlantic Council
IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings
(Atlantic Council) International Monetary Fund Director Kristalina Georgieva sent a sobering message to financial leaders last week: Expect “notable markdowns” in forecasted economic growth and, for some countries, a hike in inflation. Those projections will be released this week at the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, where central bank governors, finance ministers, and other economic leaders are meeting. There, many will sound the alarm about the global economy’s trajectory and discuss their plans to cushion their countries from the blow of low growth and high inflation, which are expected to result from US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. – Inside the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings as leaders navigate the global trade war – Atlantic Council
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) The Kremlin continues to delay genuine peace talks with Ukraine—relying on distractions and temporary ceasefires to extract concessions while avoiding meaningful compromise—as the United States signals its readiness to move on from stalled peace efforts. European efforts to step up defense commitments and coordinate with the United States contradict Kremlin narratives of Western disunity and threaten Russia’s hopes of dividing the transatlantic alliance. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attempts to redirect diplomatic focus toward the Middle East and reset relations with the Trump administration only underscore the deadlock created by his war against Ukraine. – Putin Weighs Risks of U.S. Readiness to Move on From Stalled Peace Efforts in Ukraine – Jamestown
Saudi Arabia
(Soufan Center) The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is broadening relations with both Iran and the U.S. to shield itself from any escalation of the conflicts roiling the Middle East. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS)’ brother, Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, visited Tehran last week to avoid potential backlash from any U.S. or Israeli actions against Iran and the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. U.S. officials, planning President Trump’s upcoming visit to the Kingdom, continue to pursue a broad bilateral defense pact linked to the eventual normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. To provide incentive for Saudi leaders to remain closely aligned with U.S. objectives, Trump is considering a bilateral civilian nuclear accord that would permit the Kingdom to enrich uranium, despite concerns in Congress. – Saudi Arabia Tries to Stay Out of the Crossfire – The Soufan Center
US – Houthi
(James E. Shepard – Washington Institute for Near East Policy) On March 15, President Trump launched an ongoing military campaign against the Houthi militia in Yemen, targeting senior officials, command centers, weapons depots, and infrastructure across the country. The administration’s goal is to restore freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, where the Iran-backed Houthis conducted sporadic attacks for years before escalating their targeting of commercial and military vessels when the Gaza war began in 2023. This waterway’s crucial role in global trade is well known—it facilitates the transfer of $1 trillion in goods annually, along with 30 percent of the world’s container traffic. Yet it also serves as a key transit route for commercially shipped military logistics, enabling swift and efficient deployment of U.S. forces and resources across multiple theaters of operation. By disrupting both of these roles, Houthi attacks represent a direct challenge to what the United States has defined as “a core national interest.” – Is the Houthi Threat a Checkmate for U.S. Military Logistics? | The Washington Institute
US – India
(Rudra Chaudhuri – Carnegie India) On February 13, 2025, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and United States President Donald Trump met at the White House. Prime Minister Modi was on an official working visit to the United States. A seven-page-long joint statement followed. It covered a range of issue areas for cooperation: defense, trade and investment, energy security, technology and innovation, multilateral cooperation, and people-to-people cooperation. Importantly, the “leaders announced the launch of the U.S.-India TRUST (Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology) initiative.”. This essay explains what the TRUST initiative is, breaking down some of its key parts. It begins by providing a context for the TRUST initiative, which will need to be kept squarely in mind as officials and others in both countries work toward delivering on the initiative. This essay is based on the limited publications and news reports on and around the joint statement. Importantly, it is also based on conversations with officials, industry leaders, academics, and other experts from both countries between February and April 2025. Clearly, it’s early days for the TRUST initiative, and the initiative is likely to expand in different ways as discussions get deeper and wider in the following months. – What is the India–United States TRUST Initiative? | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
