From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Arctic; Australia; Australia-China; Euro Atlantic-Indo Pacific; Europe; Fiji; Germany-Russia-Ukraine; Indonesia; Japan; Pacific; Romania; US-Indo Pacific
Arctic
(Sergey Vakulenko – Carnegie Russia Eurasia) The melting of Arctic ice as a result of climate change, coupled with the advent of new technology, is making the Arctic and its energy resources more accessible and more attractive to a number of states and companies. Thanks to a combination of large reserves of recoverable oil and gas, the emergence of new supply routes through previously unnavigable waters, and growing interest in new sources of critical minerals and renewable energy (mainly wind), the Arctic is widely seen as one of the world’s “last frontiers”: that is, a region whose mineral wealth has not yet been fully developed. At the same time, it remains to be seen whether future development of that vast endowment of natural resources will live up to the hype. This paper focuses on the dynamics shaping energy competition in the Arctic, aiming to shed light on the key drivers of those efforts and to create an analytical baseline for understanding the priorities, strategies, and practical efforts of leading players. The development of the Arctic’s resources is shaped by a number of closely intertwined political, economic, technological, and climate trends. Energy is just one area in which great powers such as the United States, Russia, and China are now competing across the economic, military, and legal domains. – Global Energy Competition in the Arctic: A Reassessment | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Australia
(Chris Taylor – The Strategist) Australia’s intelligence agencies are increasingly centre-stage as cyber threats, foreign interference, grey-zone competition and the prospect of Indo-Pacific conflict reshape our national security. This means that the need for robust, adaptive oversight of those agencies has never been more pressing. A new report from ASPI’s Statecraft & Intelligence Policy Centre, released today, underscores the need to reform and reinforce the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security (PJCIS) to ensure it remains an effective pillar of democratic accountability. Key to that reform will be refocusing the future work of the committee back towards intelligence oversight. Australia’s trilateral intelligence oversight model—comprising ministerial control, the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security (IGIS) and parliamentary scrutiny via the PJCIS—has long been praised for effectiveness. The 2024 Independent Intelligence Review (IIR) reaffirmed its fitness for purpose, citing its independence, clarity of mandate and comprehensive coverage. Yet, this new report, A critical juncture: now’s the time to sustain and strengthen the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence & Security, highlights that the PJCIS is under significant strain, facing mounting workloads, limited resources and an expanded remit that risks diluting its core oversight function. – Australia is at critical juncture to reform parliamentary intelligence oversight | The Strategist
Australia – China
(Carolin Kautz – The Interpreter) Across the board, the Chinese state media reported on Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s visit to the country last week in a positive light. Even the Global Times, an English language Chinese newspaper known for its often-hawkish coverage of foreign policy issues, praised Albanese’s trip and relations with Australia. The fact that Albanese was in China for six days was positively noted, with the paper stating that the trip was “extraordinarily long compared with Australian state visits over the past decade and marks a normalisation of bilateral relations”. A commentary in the People’s Daily offered similar praise, saying the complementarities of the Australian and the Chinese economy made for advantages in mutual trade. – The Chinese readout of Albanese’s visit | Lowy Institute
Euro Atlantic – Indo Pacific
(James Corera and Bart Hogeveen – The Strategist) The European Union’s high representative for foreign affairs and security, Kaja Kallas, and Singapore’s coordinating minister for national security, K Shanmugam, on Friday called out Russian and Chinese hybrid warfare, respectively. Their complementary statements highlight the importance of coordinated action between the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific. Kallas’s warning extends beyond Europe’s security crisis to the Indo-Pacific, where Moscow and Beijing’s hybrid playbook offers a warning and the coordinated global response offers a model. – Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific united in response to hybrid threats | The Strategist
Europe
(Erik Jones – Carnegie Europe) Americans hearing about the spate of European reports on the single market, competitiveness, or security and resilience may roll their eyes. Talk to them about open strategic autonomy, anticoercion instruments, or de-risking, and the skepticism only becomes more visible. This disregard for Europe’s processes is the flip side of European concern about efforts by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump to “flood the zone” with executive orders or engage in trade negotiations through tariff threats published on social media. Many Americans see Europe as overly regulated and slow moving; many Europeans see the United States as unchecked and unbalanced. The old transatlantic order based on U.S. leadership within an effective, rules-based, multilateral framework is breaking down at the interface. The question is which side of the Atlantic is likely to come out stronger from this interaction. – Betting on Europe | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Fiji
(Blake Johnson and Astrid Young – The Strategist) Fiji is seeking to be at the forefront of a cohesive and collaborative Pacific-led security solution, and partners will be most valued when they support that vision. The trajectory of its security force shifted dramatically after Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka took office in late 2022, when he considered scrapping the existing policing agreement with Beijing. Since then, embedded Chinese police have been ordered out of the country and the agreement remains under review, with concerns over China’s growing presence in the region and its potential to undermine democratic systems. In a speech at Australia’s National Press Club in early July, Rabuka made clear that Fiji would not welcome a Chinese base in the Pacific and suggested a treaty with Australia was on the horizon. – Friends to all: Fiji prioritises shared values and regional leadership | The Strategist
Germany – Russia – Ukraine
(Friedrich Conradi – Carnegie Russia Eurasia) Germany’s relationship with Russia is rooted in a complex legacy of war, division, and economic dependence. The Cold War’s parceling of Germany into a NATO West and Soviet East laid the foundation for a long-standing consensus: stable and friendly relations with Russia were deemed vital. This legacy still influences German policy today, forming a backdrop of restraint against which Chancellor Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is now pushing for a strategic shift. His first trip to Washington—and his call for renewed U.S. commitment to the transatlantic alliance—has intensified expectations that Germany must take a leading role in Europe’s defense against Russian aggression. Yet deep domestic divisions, coalition constraints, and shifting geopolitical realities threaten to undermine his ambitions. – From Accommodation to Deterrence: Can Germany Lead on Russia and Ukraine? | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Indonesia
(Manggi Habir, Siwage Dharma Negara – East Asia Forum) Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s first 100 days have seen a shift towards initiatives driven by national security and ambitious populism, most notably the Free Nutritious Meals program, along with rice and fuel subsidies and tax breaks, all aimed at stimulating consumption and achieving self-sufficiency. Yet slowing growth, weak tax revenues and efforts to limit VAT increases are tightening the budget. Meanwhile, the creation of new ministries and the Danantara sovereign wealth fund have added overhead costs and off-budget spending. Together, these measures strain Indonesia’s fiscal space and raise concerns about the long-term sustainability of Prabowo’s security-focused agenda. – Prabowo’s economic agenda faces a fiscal stress test | East Asia Forum
Japan
(Maximilien Xavier Rehm – East Asia Forum) Ahead of the 2025 Upper House election, Japan’s ruling LDP has toughened its rhetoric on immigration amid growing public concern and pressure from right-wing parties. Despite record foreign arrivals and Japan’s reliance on migrant labour, the LDP has largely avoided public debate on immigration. But given a changing political environment, it is selectively adopting hardline policies to neutralise political threats while maintaining elite consensus on the economic need for foreign workers. – Ishiba walks a political tightrope on immigration | East Asia Forum
Pacific
(Jason Van der Schyff – The Strategist) The Pacific is no longer an afterthought in global strategic competition. Stretching across a vast ocean, the region’s scattered island nations are navigating a digital transition that will shape their economic development, national security and geopolitical alignment. The question is no longer whether they will connect to the digital world, but through whom. For the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the European Union, this is a moment of strategic clarity. Closing the Pacific’s digital divide is not just a development priority. It is a litmus test for whether the West can offer a coherent and compelling alternative to China’s digital sphere of influence. – West should coordinate to support Pacific cyber development | The Strategist
Romania
(Bogdan Cozma – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has prompted European countries to increase their defense budgets to levels unseen since the Cold War to fill the gap in capabilities from years of low spending and reliance on the United States. Romania could contribute to this effort by revitalizing its defense industry—which has been neglected for many years—from a centralized, export-focused model of licensed or reverse-engineered Soviet-era armored vehicles, small arms, and ammunition to a more fragmented industry adapting to NATO standards and modern technologies. – How Can Romania Revitalize Its Defense Industry? | German Marshall Fund of the United States
US – Indo Pacific
(Shameek Godara – The Interpreter) A fortnight ago, on American Independence Day, US President Donald Trump signed into law the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 (OBBBA). Touted by the White House as a generational achievement fulfilling key campaign promises and putting “America First”, the legislation was sold to the American public as a tax and spending package designed to restore prosperity at home. Yet despite its domestic focus, the OBBBA carries implications that stretch well beyond US borders, particularly into the Indo-Pacific. Its consequences – spanning defence burden-sharing, economic disruptions, and climate policy – are already being felt by close partners and neighbours across the region. The OBBBA delivers a set of sweeping domestic changes. These include extensive tax cuts, the creation of new personal savings instruments dubbed “Trump Accounts”, and an expanded child tax credit. But these fiscal sweeteners are accompanied by significant reductions in social spending. Medicaid faces steep cuts via new work requirements and more frequent re-enrolments. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has been restructured with tighter conditions and increased state co-contributions. According to the Congressional Budget Office, nearly 12 million Americans could lose health coverage over the next decade as a result. Independent budget analysts estimate the bill will add upwards of US$2.4 trillion to the primary deficit over the same period, with debt projections rising further if temporary tax breaks are extended. – Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill: A domestic deal with Indo-Pacific consequences | Lowy Institute
