From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Arctic-Russia, ASEAN, China, India-Africa, Middle East, UK, Ukraine, US, US-Middle East, US-World Health Organisation
Arctic – Russia
(Anurag Bisen – Vivekananda International Foundation)
Over the past 1,000 days, the world has crossed an invisible yet critical threshold in the domain of mutually assured security. While the previous system was far from perfect, it maintained a relative balance and stability. Today, however, we find ourselves in uncharted territory, where the concept of shared security between Russia, the United States, the European Union, and their respective allies has fractured. This breach has unleashed a cascade of unpredictability, fuelled by escalating rhetoric in both public discourse and media, deepening the ideological and political trenches on either side of this divide. The Arctic has not been spared from this division. – Arctic Bridges: Are They Still an Option for Russia? | Vivekananda International Foundation
ASEAN
(Sharon Seah – East Asia Forum)
As 2025 ASEAN Chair, Malaysia faces significant challenges, including Myanmar’s crisis, South China Sea tensions and geopolitical shocks from the US–China rivalry. To ensure ASEAN makes it through the year not only unscathed but even stronger, Malaysia should use its chairmanship to drive deeper regional economic integration, further develop economic instruments like the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement 3.0 and promote diplomatic solutions to ASEAN members states’ deep divisions. – ASEAN should hope for the best but prepare for the worst in 2025 | East Asia Forum
China
(Yan Liang – East Asia Forum)
China’s economy saw growth and tech advancements in 2024, along with a surge in green energy investment and an accelerated transition. Despite a downturn in the real estate sector, internal and external demand fostered economic growth, with high-tech industries and exports expanding. However, the ongoing contraction of the real estate sector and potential tariffs following Trump’s re-election pose challenges for 2025. – Green growth, high-tech gains and hard truths for China’s economy | East Asia Forum
(Kartik Bommakanti – Observer Research Foundation)
Both India and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are either developing or are already operating Medium Main Battle Tanks (MMBTs) and Light Battle Tanks (LBTs). However, India faces two critical technical challenges where China has made significant advances—Active Protection Systems (APS) and the modularity of these systems. APS systems are especially relevant due to the protection and defences they provide to LBTs. Secondly, while Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) have also rendered tanks highly vulnerable, they also perform reconnaissance missions for tanks, which, alongside Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (C-UAS), through an APS capability are now integrated into Chinese tanks. The war between Russia and Ukraine has brutally exposed the weaknesses of the tank against unmanned airborne threats and several countries, including India, are moving to acquire an APS capability for their MMBTs and LBTs. – PLA tanks march ahead with Active Protection Systems
India – Africa
(Samir Bhattacharya – Observer Research Foundation)
As 2025 begins, it is a good time to look back and evaluate India’s existing African policies, as well as suggest new policies based on past learnings. From Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s visit to Nigeria, and inaugurating the naval base in Mauritius, to deploying defence attaches in several key African countries, 2024 has been a pivotal year for the India-Africa relationship. As India plans its Africa policy for the coming year, one often-ignored area that could shape the course of India’s future engagements with the continent is its ability to assist Africa in implementing the AfCFTA African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). – India’s vision for Africa: Supporting AfCFTA in 2025
Middle East
(The Soufan Center)
The Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement, if fully implemented, has the potential to calm the warfare that has roiled the region since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack.
The Houthi movement (Ansarallah) vows to resume attacks on Israel, commercial shipping in the Red Sea, and U.S.-led coalition naval vessels, if Israel breaches the Gaza agreement.
The Gaza truce will facilitate efforts by the Iraqi government to disarm several militia groups linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – Quds Force (IRGC-QF).
The ceasefire, even if it holds, is unlikely to enable the Trump administration to broker a normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. – Regional Implications of the Gaza Deal – The Soufan Center
UK
(Tom Keatinge, Kathryn Westmore – RUSI)
The UK government has announced a new sanctions regime targeting organised immigration crime. How does it ensure these new sanctions have teeth? – A New Frontier: Organised Immigration Crime and UK Sanctions | Royal United Services Institute
Ukraine
(Hanna Shelest – RUSI)
Since gaining independence, Ukraine has been engaged in a constant search for security guarantees. After the signing of the so-called Budapest Memorandum in 1994, there was a misplaced hope that by rejecting its nuclear arsenal, the country would receive protection. While some naivety was present in 1994, when none of the big states – including Russia – was seen as a potential threat, mistakes with long-term consequences were made – namely, accepting the term ‘assurances’ and the non-legally-binding form of the memorandum. Moreover, there was an element of self-deception on the part of many in Ukraine, as the authentic translation in Russian and Ukrainian was titled ‘Memorandum on security guarantees‘, despite the English version explicitly saying ‘Memorandum on security assurances‘. – From Budapest Memorandum to Ukraine Compact: A Conundrum of Guarantees | Royal United Services Institute
US
(Max Yoeli – Chatham House)
President Trump’s second term begins with a series of fiscal hurdles that will shape the trajectory of the US economy. These include avoiding a government shutdown, preventing a default on US sovereign debt and extending his 2017 tax cuts – each connected to managing America’s ballooning national debt. Failure to adequately deal with any of these issues could have enduring political and economic consequences. – Amid soaring US debt, can Trump balance fiscal challenges with campaign promises? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US – Middle East
(RUSI)
As President Trump is sworn in, Dr Burcu Ozcelik, our Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security, reflects on what this means for the Middle East. – The Middle East and the Return of US President Donald Trump | Royal United Services Institute
US – World Health Organisation
(Lakshmy Ramakrishnan – Observer Research Foundation)
The United States (US), under President-elect Donald Trump, is expected to formally withdraw from the World Health Organisation (WHO) upon reoccupying the White House, paving the way for extraordinary consequences for global health. While it comes as no surprise that the US role in global health leadership comes under the scanner once again, the global health community must take notice of what this signifies, take cognisance of what global health needs, and develop steps to address the altered landscape. – Global health in flux: What a potential US exit from the WHO means for the world
