From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Australia; Australia-AUKUS; Australia-China; China-South China Sea; Georgia; Hezbollah-Lebanon; Indonesia-Russia; New Caledonia; PKK-Türkiye-Kurdistan Region of Iraq; Romania; South Korea; Syria; UK-European Union
Australia
(James Corera and John Coyne – The Strategist) Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s decision to return policy responsibility for the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation and the Australian Federal Police to the Department of Home Affairs is more than a machinery-of-government change; it’s a long-term strategic recalibration in response to a rapidly intensifying threat landscape. The move, previously advocated by ASPI executive director Justin Bassi, lays the foundation for a more integrated and future-ready national security system that can address the complex interplay between societal resilience and statecraft. In doing so, it matches the threats that confront Australia and effectively puts an end to the perception that Home Affairs is owned by one side of politics. In national security, a bipartisan approach to governing architecture is vital for public confidence, even where policies may divide. – Reuniting ASIO and the AFP under Home Affairs is the right move to address intensifying threats | The Strategist
Australia – AUKUS
(Samuel White – The Strategist) AUKUS is under pressure, not from adversaries abroad but from state governments at home. While Canberra drives the security pact forward, Australian states are the ones that that hold the constitutional levers over the land it will need, through their powers of zoning, environmental approvals and handling Indigenous rights. States are already dealing with legal and political friction relating to this, and concerns over reliability of the United States as an ally may lead states to question the long-term value of their sacrifices. The real opposition to AUKUS may ultimately come from Adelaide or Perth. – Federalism could torpedo AUKUS | The Strategist
Australia – China
(Yves-Heng Lim, Adam Lockyer and Courtney Fung – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Through February and early March 2025, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) dispatched a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLA-N) flotilla comprising the Type 055 cruiser Zunyi, Type 054A frigate Hengyang, and Type 903 oiler Weishanhu, and circumnavigated the Australian mainland. The Hengyang transited through the Torres Strait towards the east coast of Australia, while the other two vessels first rendezvoused in the Coral Sea, before pairing with Hengyang and travelling towards the Tasman Sea. There, on 21 February, the flotilla, known as Task Force 107, began conducting live-fire drills around 350 nautical miles off the Australian coast, forcing a diversion of air traffic in the area over a period of four days. Task Force 107 then circumnavigated Australia, passing through the Australian EEZ near Hobart, entering the Great Australian Bight on 25 February and ultimately reaching the waters west of Perth ten days later. – 055 Shades of Grey: Operationalising the ICAD – Australian Institute of International Affairs
China – South China Sea
(Euan Graham – The Strategist) For all the talk about the South China Sea’s complexity as a security issue, its geopolitical significance to China is simple: China wants to condition Southeast Asian states to subordinate status. Southeast Asian countries would do well to consider this when assessing Beijing’s motivations and behaviour. – China’s geopolitical dominance game in the South China Sea | The Strategist
Georgia
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) The Georgian parliament is discussing a migration reform package, drafted by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, aimed at curbing illegal migration and perceived foreign political interference. It introduces strict penalties, including lifetime bans for foreigners deemed disruptive. The reforms follow increasing foreign participation in anti-government protests, prompting concerns that the government is targeting dissenters, including refusals of entry of journalists, activists, and public figures who have expressed anti-Russian sentiments. The new migration legislation can be considered as another component of Georgian Dream’s moves to build an authoritarian regime in Georgia isolated from the external world. – Georgian Government Tightens Immigration Laws to Suppress Foreign Influence – Jamestown
Hezbollah – Lebanon
(Emirates Policy Center) Following the recent war between Hezbollah and Israel, hopes were high that the party could be disarmed, given the significant destruction of its military capabilities. This issue will be a top a priority in Lebanon, with far-reaching implications for the country’s security and sovereignty. Hezbollah’s arsenal remains one of the key issues in the anticipated dialogue between the Lebanese presidency and the party. This dialogue reflects the willingness of both sides to reach a face-saving settlement that would allow Hezbollah to reposition itself within the country’s political system – without arms. The future of Hezbollah’s arms could unfold through two possible scenarios: First, a gradual dismantling of the group’s arsenal in exchange for political gains as part of a domestic settlement. Second, Hezbollah may procrastinate in handing over its weapons awaiting the outcome of Iran-US negotiations. In this case, Israel would intensify its military strikes, rather than allowing an organized disarmament by the Lebanese army. – Emirates Policy Center | Between Monopoly and Dismantling: Prospects for Disarming Lebanese Hezbollah
Indonesia – Russia
(Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan – The Strategist) Indonesia has plenty of reason to reject basing of Russian aircraft at its air force base on Biak, an island north of New Guinea at 1,400 km from Darwin. From Russia’s point of view, keeping aircraft at the Manuhua Air Force Base would add to its prestige and might also be helpful to its ‘no-limits’ partner, China. Whether it has asked for such access is disputed. Defence publisher Janes, citing Indonesian government sources and documents that it had reviewed, reported on 14 April that Russia had asked to base several aircraft on Manuhua; this would be a step up from aircraft merely transiting through the airfield. A day later the Indonesia Defence Ministry said the report was ‘incorrect’. But The Australian, a newspaper, said in an unsourced 28 April report that the Australian government had known in February of Russian requests to use Indonesian airfields for long-range military aircraft. – Indonesia has good reasons to reject Russian aircraft basing | The Strategist
New Caledonia
(Denise Fisher – The Interpreter) After months of violent riots around independence, talks chaired by French Minister for Overseas Territories Manuel Valls have failed to produce agreement about New Caledonia’s future. Correcting its 2024 provocation of imposing change unilaterally, France has now offered to hand over elements of sovereignty, a major shift already questioned by many in Paris. Valls warns the present lack of agreement in the French Pacific territory is “heavy with threats” of chaos. Yet in a territory where support for independence is ethnically based, a census under way will reveal the ethnic composition, quantifying a growing indigenous presence. New Caledonia’s status is presently the region’s most delicate political flashpoint. It’s crucial for Australia to develop a considered response to the trouble on the doorstep before a further episode of violence such as erupted last year – or worse – demands a more urgent form of attention. – A strategic reset for New Caledonia: France offers quasi-sovereignty, and a looming census may reveal Indigenous majority | Lowy Institute
PKK – Türkiye – Kurdistan Region of Iraq
(Wladimir van Wilgenburg – Washington Institute for Near East Policy) In a major development, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leadership announced on May 12 that the group would disband, potentially marking an end to its forty year conflict with Turkey after a peace process began between its imprisoned leader Abdullah Öcalan’s and the Turkish state last October. However, much of the conflict has unfolded not in Turkey but in Iraq—and specifically the Kurdistan Region of Iraq—where Turkey has fought the PKK since the 1980s in a conflict that has threatened civilian lives, prompted internal displacement, and damaged the local economy. Given the destabilizing role of this conflict there, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has proven keen on a successful peace process in Turkey, since it could remove what it sees as PKK’s territorial encroachment in Iraqi Kurdistan. Both the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the KDP have also played mediating roles in the previous peace processes between Turkey and the PKK. – Iraqi Kurds Could Facilitate and Mediate in PKK-Turkish Peace Process | The Washington Institute
Romania
(Atlantic Council) The math adds up. On Sunday, Nicusor Dan, the mayor of Bucharest and a former mathematics professor, was elected as the next Romanian president. With more than 53 percent of the vote, the pro–European Union (EU) Dan beat out right-wing candidate George Simion. Dan’s victory comes after the Romanian Constitutional Court’s controversial decision to annul the country’s November 2024 presidential election following allegations of Russian interference. – Experts react: What message did Romanians send by electing Nicusor Dan? – Atlantic Council
South Korea
(Chris Khatouki – East Asia Forum) Former South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment, which was upheld by the Supreme Court of Korea in April 2025, reflects the persisting far-right influence in South Korean politics. Driven by a shared sense of economic disillusionment, Yoon’s support base — including young male voters and elderly citizens — remains resilient. This increasing polarisation poses a threat to the future of South Korea’s social cohesion. – Yoon’s far-right legacy continues to polarise South Korea | East Asia Forum
Syria
(Aaron Y. Zelin – Washington Institute for Near East Policy) For the first time since the fall of the Assad regime, the Islamic State successfully struck the new Syrian government, targeting a security post in the eastern town of Mayadin with a May 18 car bomb attack that left five dead. Intentionally or not, the strike coincided with several other significant developments in the Syria file—it came one day after government forces clashed with an IS cell in Aleppo (the first such sting operation since March), less than a week after President Trump met with President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Riyadh, and subsequent to a U.S. military drawdown in Syria that began in mid-April. Although the local IS presence is nowhere near as strong as it once was, the trend lines point to a persistent threat that cannot be ignored. – The Islamic State Attacks the New Syrian Government | The Washington Institute
UK – European Union
(Ed Arnold – RUSI) Nine years after the Brexit vote and five years after the UK left the EU, both sides have finally agreed to structured cooperation on defence and security. While it lays a comprehensive framework and options for future cooperation, the current level of ambition falls far short of the geopolitical moment. – Restoring Factory Settings: The 2025 UK-EU Summit | Royal United Services Institute
