From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Australia – BRICS-De-Dollarisation, China, Climate Action, Europe, India-US, Iran, Ireland, Middle East, Organization of Turkic States-Middle Corridor, Poland, UK-CPTPP, Ukraine-US-Europe, US, US-Iran, US-Myanmar
Australia
(David Uren – ASPI The Strategist) Australia has been losing so many sovereign manufacturing capabilities over the past two decades that it is hard to know where to draw the line. The Whyalla steel mill may mark the spot. The Australian and South Australian governments certainly seem to think so. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Thursday said the two governments would spend an immediate $484 million, mainly to keep the works going during the period of administration that the South Australian government initiated on Wednesday. – The strategic importance of the Whyalla steelworks | The Strategist
BRICS – De-Dollarisation
(Jhanvi Tripathi – Observer Research Foundation) De-dollarisation has been on the agenda globally for almost a decade. President Barack Obama first warned of a potential blowback against the dollar should the United States (US) leave the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) back in 2015. In his speech at the American University in Washington, D.C., he warned that an overuse of sanctions would also mean eventually cutting off countries which are major buyers of US debt, like China. These words have proved prophetic over time as frustration with the US weaponising the dollar to suit its needs boil over. – BRICS, currencies, and the dollar question
China
(Jonathan Czin – Brookings) What was once improbable—even imponderable—in Chinese politics has now become yet another symptom of a new normal. On November 28, 2024, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Ministry of National Defense announced that Admiral Miao Hua, until then the director of the Political Work Department, had been suspended from his position and was under investigation. Thirteen years into Xi Jinping’s tenure at the top, it can be hard to recall that prior to Xi’s rule, toppling members of the Central Military Commission (CMC) was unheard of in the post-Mao era. Xi, however, has now made the removal of CMC members a regular feature of China’s politics—toppling no fewer than seven serving and former members of the CMC since becoming chairman of the CMC in 2012. These terminations have been dramatic affairs—with one former vice chairman dying of cancer after being purged following more than 40 years of military service, and one of Miao’s predecessors committing suicide. – Thoughts on the political demise of Miao Hua
Climate Action
(Richard Haass, Carolyn Kissane – ASPI The Strategist) There is no denying the reality of global warming. Each year is hotter than the preceding one. Last month alone was the hottest January on record. Recurring natural disasters—floods, fires, droughts and hurricanes—are becoming more extreme and frequent. The world has blown through the goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C above the pre-industrial level. At this rate, climate change could define the second half of this century. – Tackling climate change in the age of Trump | The Strategist
Europe
(Philippe Legrain – ASPI The Strategist) Europe urgently needs to rearm. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the broader threat that President Vladimir Putin’s regime poses to Europe, requires nothing less. US President Donald Trump’s administration has also now made clear that neither Ukraine nor the United States’ NATO allies can count on continued US support. Perhaps this particularly brutal wake-up call will finally jolt European governments out of their complacency. – How Europe can pay for rearmament | The Strategist
India – US
(Vivek Mishra – Observer Research Foundation) As states transition in economic heft, power, and influence, so do their relationships. Most starkly, this is visible in the changing nature of their ties with great powers. On the contrary, the recalibrations by great powers themselves have implicit success stories about growing powers, not just one of accommodation but increasingly, compulsion. While the United States (US) has remained a constant paradigm of growth, influence, and both soft and hard power for over three-quarters of the last century, China and India have presented two very contrasting pictures of the kind of relationship rising states have with the preeminent power of the world. China’s growth in the last three decades, in many ways, was facilitated by the US’s role as the global security guarantor. – The new India-US security compact
Iran
(Mohammad Reza Mousavi – Stimson Center) On top of its other myriad economic problems, Iran is facing a convoluted and increasingly dire shortage of basic pharmaceuticals. A combination of high prices, low production, and lack of foreign currency liquidity has plagued the supply of drugs to the extent that, according to a recent report by Iran’s state news agency IRNA, as many as 300 types of drugs are in short supply, and about a hundred are unavailable. – Iran’s Dire and Growing Drug Shortage • Stimson Center
Ireland
(Jonathan Stevenson – IISS) The Republic of Ireland’s membership in NATO would diminish its strategic vulnerability to Russia, defuse attempts to revive unionism and preserve the Good Friday Agreement’s pathway to a united Ireland. – Ireland’s Future: United, European and in NATO
Middle East
(David Schenker, Ghaith al-Omari – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) On February 20, senior officials from five Arab states will meet in Riyadh to discuss President Trump’s “Gaza Riviera” proposal, followed by an emergency Arab League summit in Egypt on March 4. In the lead-up to these meetings, Arab leaders have uniformly rejected Trump’s idea of relocating two million Gazans to Jordan and Egypt. At minimum, the summits will give them a forum to jointly restate this opposition and reaffirm their support for Palestinian statehood. Ideally, however, officials will use the meetings to coordinate an Arab postwar strategy that supplements the traditional “two-state” mantra with concrete plans for providing security, governance, and reconstruction in Gaza, sidelining Hamas in the process. – Two Arab Summits Hold the Key to a Viable Gaza Plan | The Washington Institute
(Neomi Neumann – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Trump’s vision to transform Gaza is based on economic and utilitarian considerations, but it fails to take into account the Palestinian connection to the land, which remains a central component of Palestinian national identity. – When the Riviera Meets the Sumud: Why Palestinian Realities Don’t Mesh with Trump’s Gaza Plan | The Washington Institute
(Hajrah Nasir – Lowy The Interpreter) Arid landscapes are not easy homes for rapidly growing urban centres. So cities across the Middle East are grappling with pressing environmental challenges, whether rising temperatures, water scarcity, or ecosystem degradation. All these factors add a further threat to the region’s long-term stability. Yet a powerful force for change is emerging: the youth. Representing almost 30 per cent of the region’s population, young people are pioneering climate initiatives and championing sustainability. From sustainable farming to urban greening, their efforts reflect both creativity and adaptability, as noted in a 2022 United Nations forum. – Empowering Middle East’s youth is key to climate resilience | Lowy Institute
Organization of Turkic States – Middle Corridor
(Vusal Guliyev – The Jamestown Foundation) The Organization of Turkic States (OTS), comprising Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Türkiye, Uzbekistan, and observers, is leading efforts to enhance the Middle Corridor. This initiative aims to bolster regional connectivity, mitigate trade disruptions from geopolitical instability, and develop sustainable, competitive transport networks through multilateral treaties and infrastructure investments. Recent OTS summits have reinforced commitments to optimizing and digitalizing the Middle Corridor. Agreements focus on modernizing logistics, integrating green energy solutions, and harmonizing customs and border procedures. Strengthened intergovernmental collaboration allows the OTS to enhance regional economic integration. Continued focus on infrastructure, digital transformation, and strategic partnerships will unlock the Middle Corridor’s full potential across the region. – Organization of Turkic States Advances Eurasian Trade Connectivity – Jamestown
Poland
(Janusz Bugajski – The Jamestown Foundation) Poland is navigating internationally to maintain the unity of the North Atlantic alliance while anticipating a European defense structure without the United States. U.S. officials have praised Poland as a model for NATO states to emulate in terms of defense spending and military capabilities. Warsaw is at the forefront of urging NATO members to significantly boost defense spending and build up their military industries, given the rising threat from Russia. – Poland Caught in the Middle of Diplomatic Maneuvers Affecting European Defense and Security – Jamestown
UK – CPTPP
(Shairee Malhotra, Jayaa Auplish – Observer Research Foundation) On 15 December 2024, the United Kingdom (UK) officially acceded to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), marking a significant step in its post-Brexit trade strategy. Spanning the Pacific Rim, the CPTPP comprises 11 of the world’s fastest-growing economies and grants greater market access to members while lowering trade tariffs. The UK’s inclusion as the second-largest economy (after Japan) within the CPTPP and first European member solidifies the latter’s position as a global Free Trade Agreement (FTA), with member countries accounting for a total GDP of €12 trillion and 15 percent of global output. – UK joins CPTPP: A symbolic move or a strategic shift?
Ukraine – US – Europe
(François Heisbourg – IISS) Some three years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the fate of that beleaguered country remains in the balance. It is difficult to overstate the pivotal consequences that the outcome of the largest armed conflict in Europe since the Second World War will have. The physical future, political freedom and economic well-being of Ukraine’s population is at stake, as is the existence, sovereignty and integrity of the Ukrainian state. At the European level, the outcome will either blunt or sharpen Russia’s pursuit of its broader aim to reverse the strategic effects of the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991 and to recreate a latter-day Russian empire by limiting the sovereignty of the states lying east of the Oder–Neisse line. This was the clear objective in the draft treaties that Russia proffered to the United States and NATO in December 2021, in the run-up to the February 2022 invasion. A Russian victory against Ukraine would entail massive increases in the burden borne by NATO’s current members to preclude the fulfilment of the objectives laid out in those treaties. Notwithstanding the costs of the war, Russia’s armed forces are larger than they were at its onset, and battle-tested in a way that NATO’s armies are not. – War or Peace in Ukraine: US Moves and European Choices
US
(Lester Munson – Lowy The Interpreter) The fate of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the premier aid organisation in the US government, hangs in the balance. But it is not Donald Trump alone that can decide its fate, and with it, the assistance provided across the world. Ultimately, the question of USAID’s future lies with both Congress and the Trump administration. It is important to understand that while American presidents are charged with carrying out foreign assistance activities, behind the scenes, it is Congress that gives the instructions, often with great specificity. – What’s next for USAID? | Lowy Institute
(Emiliano Aguilar – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Donald Trump campaigned on a promise to secure the southern border and crackdown on undocumented immigration into the United States as he made his comeback run for the presidency. These very comments propelled the one-time presidential hopeful when, in 2015, he proclaimed that “The US has become a dumping ground for everybody else’s problems.” His infamous Presidential Announcement Speech noted that Mexico did not send “their best.” Instead, they sent people “that have lots of problems,” like drugs, crime, and “They’re rapists.” – All in a Day’s Work: Latino Labour under Trump 2.0 – Australian Institute of International Affairs
US – Iran
(Holly Dagres – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) When President Trump signed his executive order reevaluating U.S. foreign aid in January, Iranian dailies celebrated by posting headlines like “Fatal blow to the opposition” and “Trump’s financial shock to regime changers.” Among other effects, his order “immediately suspended” U.S.-funded NGO work for ninety days until the administration reviews grants individually to ensure they are effective and aligned with the president’s foreign policy objectives. – Why Secretary Rubio Should Provide Grant Waivers for Urgent Human Rights Work on Iran | The Washington Institute
US – Myanmar
(Hunter Marston – Stimson Center) U.S. Burma policy since the February 2021 military coup has been overly cautious, reactive, and as a result ineffectual. Despite legislation such as the 2022 BURMA Act authorizing the provision of non-lethal assistance for resistance groups in Myanmar, the Biden administration has largely avoided following through on Congressional mandates. The Trump administration has a meaningful opportunity to review and implement a more proactive and thereby effective strategy to bring about a peaceful end to the conflict in Myanmar and hasten the return of democracy. – Rethinking US Myanmar Policy in a Second Trump Administration • Stimson Center
