From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Arctic-China-Russia, Canada-US, Climate Action, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Global Governance, ISIL, Middle East, Russia, Russia-US, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine-Middle East-NATO, Sudan, Syria, US
Arctic – China – Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expanded its activities in the Arctic since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Moscow needs PRC engagement in the Arctic as sanctions limit Russian activities, but fears the PRC will try to become the dominant power in the region. Moscow’s typically unspoken concerns are now greater than when the PRC positioned itself as “near Arctic” in 2018. Relations between Russia and the PRC in the Arctic are not necessarily headed toward an immediate breakdown or at a point where the West could easily exploit these differences. They are, however, critical developments to understand lest policies intended to contain one of these actors open new possibilities for expansion by the other. – China Exploiting Russian Weakness in Arctic–and Moscow Has Reason to Worry – Jamestown
Canada – US
(Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Henry Ziemer, Alejandra Toro – Center for Strategic & International Studies) China’s near monopolistic control of many critical minerals, which are essential for both for consumer products and defense production, represents an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States at a time of heightened geopolitical tension. Canada, which already supplies the United States with large quantities of certain essential metals, is well positioned as an alternative source for many of the critical minerals controlled by China, thus contributing to North American national and economic security. Bolstering cooperation on critical minerals for the defense industry furthermore offers a way for both countries to find common ground amid frustrations surrounding trade and security. – Mining for Defense
(Wesley Wark – Centre for International Governance Innovation) The findings of the 16-month public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada’s elections and democratic processes, released on January 28, threaten to be swallowed up by the urgencies surrounding a suddenly fraught Canada-US relationship. One way to make sure this doesn’t happen is to be clear about the ways in which the inquiry weaves two major threads between past foreign interference activities and future threats, with implications for dealing with an antagonistic, America-First administration headed by Donald Trump. – The Foreign Interference Inquiry Report: Crosswalks with Canada-US Relations – Centre for International Governance Innovation
Climate Action
(UN News) The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) called on Tuesday for urgent action to combat climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution, warning that progress on all fronts remains slow and uneven. – UN environment agency calls for urgent action on ‘triple planetary crisis’ | UN News
Democratic Republic of the Congo
(UN News) The humanitarian emergency in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has deteriorated sharply with serious human rights violations and abuses, including reported summary executions of children and generalised sexual violence. – DR Congo: Children reportedly killed in summary executions by M23 fighters | UN News
Global Governance
(UN News) The ministerial-level meeting was convened by China, which holds the rotating Council presidency this month, as the UN prepares to mark its 80th anniversary later this year. UN Secretary-General António Guterres opened the debate emphasizing that “global solidarity and solutions are needed more than ever” as the climate crisis rages and inequalities and poverty increase. – Amid ‘clear’ threat of nuclear war, Guterres tells Security Council multilateral off-ramp is essential | UN News
ISIL
(UN Security Council) On Monday, 10 February 2025, Under-Secretary-General for Counter-Terrorism and Head of the Office of Counter-Terrorism, Vladimir Voronkov, and Assistant Secretary-General and Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED), Natalia Gherman, briefed the Security Council on the twentieth report of the Secretary-General on the threat posed by ISIL (Da’esh) to international peace and security and the range of United Nations efforts in support of Member States in countering the threat. – Joint briefing to the Security Council on the twentieth report of the Secretary-General on the threat posed by ISIL (Da’esh) | Security Council – Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC)
Middle East
(The Soufan Center) The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has benefitted strategically from the recent setbacks suffered by Iran and its mostly Shia Muslim “Axis of Resistance” partners. Saudi Arabia is pivotal to post-conflict reconstruction and decision-making in Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and Syria, all of which were formerly dominated by Iran’s allies. The March 2023 restoration of Saudi-Iran relations did not bury the Kingdom’s suspicions of Iranian intentions, deter Saudi leaders from seeking closer strategic relations with Washington, or permanently derail Saudi consideration of normalizing ties to Israel. Türkiye, also a beneficiary of Tehran’s setbacks, competes with Saudi Arabia for regional influence, but Ankara’s writ in the Arab world, other than Syria, is limited. – Middle East Balance of Power Continues to Shift – The Soufan Center
(The Soufan Center) Beyond the logistical challenges of implementing President Donald Trump’s proposal to relocate Palestinians from Gaza, the plan raises complex political and legal issues. Treating a post-conflict strategy to rebuild Gaza as another real estate deal will invite universal opprobrium from the Arab world, destabilize close American allies like Jordan and Egypt, push Iran and Saudi Arabia closer together, and be viewed as the opportunity of a lifetime for far-right extremists in Israel. Earlier in the week, Trump suggested that he could withhold U.S. assistance to Amman and Cairo unless both countries took in Palestinians that would be forcibly transferred from Gaza, putting King Abdallah of Jordan and Egypt’s Prime Minister Abdel Fatah El Sisi in an impossible position with their own populations. If the ceasefire and hostage deal between Hamas and Israel breaks down before transitioning to the next phase, fighting could resume, endangering hostages and torpedoing the agreement by plunging Hamas and Israel back into conflict. – Trump’s Gaza Comments Put U.S. Allies Jordan and Egypt in Impossible Position – The Soufan Center
(Eliav Lieblich – Just Security) In recent weeks, U.S. President Donald Trump has surprised allies, adversaries, and apparently his own staff by repeatedly calling for a plan to resettle the entire Palestinian population of Gaza to Egypt and Jordan. It is difficult to discern what this plan actually entails, as Trump announced it in his characteristically off-the-cuff, scattershot manner. This much is certain: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, seeking to appease his extreme right coalition members, seized on the idea. Beyond complicating the chances of a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, the idea undermines core principles of the international legal order and threatens U.S. interests. – Trump’s Gaza Plan is Absurd and an Affront to International Law
Russia
(Bethany Elliott – The Jamestown Foundation) The one-year anniversary of the death of Russian dissident and anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny was met with tributes throughout Russia and abroad, including Russians braving the risk of arrest to visit Navalny’s grave. In the year since Navalny’s death, Russian authorities have continued to crack down on his associates by accusing them of participating in an “extremist organization.”. Opposition blogger Maxim Katz offered a tribute to Navalny, testifying to the late dissident’s potential to unify the divided Russian opposition movement. Despite this, there are no signs of unity developing between anti-Putin dissidents, who continued to engage in online feuding related to funding and alleged Kremlin connections. – Reconciliation Over Anniversary of Alexei Navalny’s Death Will be Short-Lived – Jamestown
Russia – US
(Anna Borshchevskaya – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) With preparatory peace talks in full swing and the war set to enter its fourth year, Washington must take a pragmatic approach to enlisting Arab help and ensuring that the outcome does not empower Moscow and Iran. – A Russian Win in Ukraine Would Be a U.S. Loss in the Middle East | The Washington Institute
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow sees its recent diplomatic engagement with the United States as a sign of progress, with Russian President Vladimir Putin aiming to regain the initiative in peace talks. Russia is anticipating that last week’s Munich Security Conference indicates possible rifts in trans-Atlantic relations and the marginalization of Europe in shaping the post-war order. Putin’s strategy may be miscalculated, despite optimism in Moscow, as Russia’s economic weaknesses and battlefield successes may not translate into successful negotiations. – Moscow Seeks to Regain Initiative in the Game of Peace Talks – Jamestown
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine – Middle East – NATO
(The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) As the full-scale war in Ukraine enters its fourth year and hints of the Trump administration’s peacemaking plans surface, how do actors in the Middle East and NATO view the situation today? Watch a webcast featuring experts from across Europe and the Middle East to explore he broader geopolitical stakes as the third anniversary of Russia’s 2022 invasion approaches. – Year Four in Ukraine: NATO Views and Middle East Impact | The Washington Institute
Sudan
(UN News) The UN human rights office (OHCHR) on Tuesday sounded the alarm over escalating rights abuses in Sudan, warning that impunity is driving violations as fighting spreads and more armed groups become involved. – UN rights office warns of ‘dangerous tipping point’ as abuses surge in Sudan | UN News
Syria
(Mieczysław Boduszyński, Sabina Henneberg – Lawfare) How can Syrians grapple with the past even as they look forward to a more hopeful post-Assad future? Transitional justice—defined by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights as “the full range of processes and mechanisms associated with a society’s attempt to come to terms with a legacy of large-scale past conflict, repression, violations and abuses, in order to ensure accountability, serve justice, and achieve reconciliation”—could help advance Syria’s transition from dictatorship, establishing a legitimate new order characterized by the rule of law. – Models for Transitional Justice in Syria | Lawfare
US
(Victor Cha, Andy Lim – Center for Strategic & International Studies) President Donald Trump’s treatment of allies and partners is more predictable than they may surmise. Trumpian statements, including his newly announced “Fair and Reciprocal Plan” outlining reciprocal tariffs, proliferate about the need for counterparts to do more and to pay their fair share. – Trump’s Prism: No Ally Is Good Enough
(Jonathan Shaub – Lawfare) As most people are now aware, President Trump issued an executive order on Jan. 20 purporting to upend the settled constitutional understanding of birthright citizenship. For over a century, there has been a general consensus that the 14th Amendment, as its text provides, grants citizenship to “[a]ll persons born or naturalized in the United States,” including children born to noncitizens, to visitors, and to unauthorized entrants to the country. By contrast, the executive order rests on the position that the 14th Amendment grants citizenship only to the children of lawful residents and excludes children of lawful temporary visitors and unlawful entrants, that is, children born to “a mother who was unlawfully present” or to a “mother whose presence in the United States … was lawful but temporary,” assuming the father was not a citizen or lawful permanent resident. Four courts, in unsparing language, have now rejected the constitutionality of the order. One court, for example, stated that the order’s “novel interpretation of the Citizenship Clause contradicts the plain language of the Fourteenth Amendment and conflicts with 125-year-old binding Supreme Court precedent.” And scholars, including Evan Bernick, Ilya Somin, Michael Ramsey, and Marty Lederman have demonstrated the constitutional absurdity of the order and the arguments in support of it. – Birthright Citizenship and the Obscure Right of Expatriation | Lawfare
(The Soufan Center) The Trump administration has promised to crack down on the threat posed by Mexican drug cartels, which are responsible for smuggling and trafficking narcotics and synthetic drugs into the United States, contributing to the deadly fentanyl epidemic which has gripped the country for the past several years. In January, the Trump administration issued an executive order that designates Mexican drug cartels and other organizations (MS-13, Tren de Aragua) as foreign terrorist organizations and specially designated global terrorists, as well as made it clear that the U.S. plans to use the military to help with counternarcotics and border security. Trump used China’s role as a supplier of fentanyl and precursor chemicals to the U.S. and Mexico to justify tariffs, but the tariffs are not expected to affect the fentanyl trade, rather it will affect bi-lateral counternarcotics cooperation, further fraying the U.S. and China’s already fragile relationship. By deploying military assets for surveillance and border security, and imposing tariffs on allies and adversaries alike––such as Canada, which has become a new hub for the Sinaloa Cartel––Trump risks alienating key partners, potentially undermining broader efforts to combat illicit trade. – Trump Administration Focusing on Threat Posed by Mexican Drug Cartels – The Soufan Center
