From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : France-Horn of Africa, Middle East, North Korea, North Korea-Russia, Russia-Syria, Syria-Turkey-Kurds, Thailand, Thailand-Cambodia, US-Europe, US-Europe-UK, US-Southeast Asia
France – Horn of Africa
(Emirates Policy Center) France is struggling to maintain its traditional influence in West and Central Africa. As a result, Paris is exploring opportunities to expand its presence in the East and South of the continent. This shift reflects the Élysée’s effort to adapt to evolving geopolitical shifts in the continent. So far, there is no clear indication of a major shift in France’s approach to the Horn of Africa. This approach still focuses on security more than economic engagement as a fundamental lever to enhance influence and improve partnerships. France faces significant challenges in enhancing its presence in the Horn of Africa, including its limited ability to regain appeal in Africa; financial constraints preventing large-scale investments; persistent regional instability; and growing international polarization and competition in the African landscape. – Emirates Policy Center | Macron in Djibouti and Ethiopia: Is there Anything New in France’s Approach to the Horn of Africa?
Middle East
(Reem Cohen – Institute for National Security Studies) President Trump’s initiative for the resettlement of Palestinians from Gaza may indicate a shift in the approach to addressing the region’s widespread destruction and the lack of housing for residents displaced by the war. Trump’s plan also seeks to involve Egypt and Jordan in actively resolving the challenges posed by this situation. If the initiative is indeed implemented, the process should be carried out with the consent of all those involved, offer meaningful incentives, and establish international oversight to protect the rights of those who emigrate. At the same time, the United States and other relevant international actors should engage in dialogue with the Palestinians, integrating their needs into the initiative and ensuring a fair and comprehensive solution. Israel, in turn, should take a secondary role and refrain from openly leading the effort or its implementation while allowing Gazans to leave. – Trump’s Initiative for the Resettlement of Palestinians from Gaza—A Feasibility Assessment | INSS
(Azar Gat – Institute for National Security Studies) The war that broke out on October 7, 2023, has brought the Palestinian issue back to the forefront of the global, Middle Eastern, and Israeli agenda. The debate over how to address—let alone resolve—it continues as it has for the past half-century, and in various forms—for more than a century. Why have all attempts at an agreement failed since the Oslo Accords, and what does this suggest about the prospects for resolving the conflict? In light of its frustrating persistence, the conflict continues to generate a range of opposing assessments and proposals from both sides of Israel’s political spectrum regarding the required course of action. I believe that both sides of the debate often fall victim to illusions and self-deception. In the international arena, dismay and frustration are growing over the intractability of a conflict that preoccupies much of the world’s attention for so long, even though the solution seems to be tantalizingly reachable. The purpose of this article is (…) to analyze the reasons why every attempt to reach a final settlement has failed and what the implications of this are for the future, at least the foreseeable one. The main argument here is that the primary obstacle to implementing the two-state solution—on the face of it, the most logical, reasonable, and just solution to the conflict—lies in the aspirations of the Palestinian side and its fundamental perception of historical justice, which the two-state solution does not satisfy. A particularly dangerous—some might call it “tragic”—aspect of the conflict is that this impasse not only severely harms the Palestinians but also advances processes in Israel that pose a critical threat to its future. – What Is the Problem With the Palestinian Problem? | INSS
North Korea
(Rachel Minyoung Lee – 38 North) North Korea’s (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or DPRK) public messaging in recent years has been unequivocally and consistently clear that it will not give up its nuclear weapons and instead, will continue to strengthen its capabilities. This was perhaps most vividly demonstrated by Kim Jong Un’s unprecedented visits to nuclear-material production facilities and the Nuclear Weapons Institute (NWI) in September 2024 and in January 2025. The nuclear signaling aligns with Pyongyang’s renunciation of its three-decade policy centered on normalizing bilateral diplomatic ties with the United States by working toward denuclearization. – North Korea Leaving Maneuvering Room with the US While Preparing for Long-Term Confrontation – 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
North Korea – Russia
(Tianran Xu – 38 North) Like all foreign military aid to a warring party, North Korea’s (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or DPRK) lethal aid to Russia largely falls into two broad categories. First, old and/or surplus equipment and ammunition sent to replenish Moscow’s depleted stocks. Second, new weapons and main battlefield equipment that can be field-tested in Ukraine. If the war drags on, North Korean weapon provision to Russia is most likely to escalate further. The combat performance of these hardware in Ukraine will give Pyongyang a valuable opportunity to evaluate and refine its domestic weapon systems. In return for Pyongyang’s lethal aid, Moscow will likely reciprocate with weapons and/or military technologies, further strengthening North Korea’s offensive and defensive capabilities on the Korean Peninsula and beyond. – North Korea’s Lethal Aid to Russia: Current State and Outlook – 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
Russia – Syria
(Antonio Giustozzi – RUSI) This Policy Paper explores the complexities of Russia’s intervention in Syria since 2015, highlighting successes, challenges, and the evolving dynamics between Moscow and the Assad regime. – Russia and the Collapse of the Assad Regime | Royal United Services Institute
Syria – Turkey – Kurds
(Institute for National Security Studies) Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Turkey has intensified its military operations in northern Syria – targeting Kurdish groups and even pursuing a new defense pact with Damascus. On this week’s episode of The National Security Podcast, Nicole Zedeck and Dr. Gallia Lindenstrauss from the Institute for National Security Studies examine Turkey’s latest actions in Syria and their implications for Kurdish forces. – i24NEWS & INSS National Security Podcast: The Kurdish Dilemma – Turkey’s Military Moves and Syria’s Future | INSS
Thailand
(Termsak Chalermpalanupap – FULCRUM) Thailand’s three most significant political parties have some tough lessons to learn from the recent provincial races in preparation for the next general election. Coalition politics is likely to endure, regardless. – Outcome of Recent Thai Provincial Elections Heralds Tighter Race in Next General Election | FULCRUM
Thailand – Cambodia
(Termsak Chalermpalanupap – FULCRUM) The Paetongtarn Administration is following Thaksin Shinawatra’s advice in preparing to resume negotiations with Phnom Penh on conflicting maritime claims in the Gulf of Thailand. Opponents of the Shinawatra family suspect a collusion between Thaksin and Hun Sen to speed up a deal on joint exploration. – Ominous Political Storm Gathers over Thai-Cambodian Dispute in Gulf of Thailand | FULCRUM
US – Europe
(RUSI) In Munich last weekend, J.D. Vance delivered a speech that surprised many in Europe, criticizing Europeans for possessing what he termed the ‘wrong values’ and lacking true ‘democracy.’ Concurrently, Trump and his associates are engaging in negotiations with Putin regarding Ukraine in Saudi Arabia, seemingly without the involvement of Zelenskyy, which may indicate the possibility of an agreement that excludes Ukrainian perspectives entirely. Jane Kinninmont explores these intricate issues in dialogue with Jason Pack, sharing her first-hand observations from the Munich Security Conference. During her attendance, she conducted three interviews with key figures: Serhiy Leschenko, advisor to Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak; Todor Tagarev, former Bulgarian Defence Minister; and Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, Head of Special Projects at the Institute of Security Studies. They discuss the evolving nature of US-European relations, the potential impact of a Trump resurgence on the Ukraine situation, and the pressing necessity for Europe to re-evaluate its defence strategies in light of possible US unpredictability. Additionally, the episode seeks to address how to promote unity among European nations amidst this disorder. – Ep.101 Munich Security Conference 2025: Implications for Europe | Royal United Services Institute
(Giuseppe Spatafora – European Union Institute for Security Studies) According to a recent survey of European experts, withdrawal from Europe by the United States would be as destabilising for the EU as a nuclear attack by Russia(1). With the return of President Donald Trump, their concerns could soon become a reality. The new administration’s initial policies – negotiating with Russia without involving Ukraine or EU allies, expecting European countries to enforce a future agreement without US backing, and attacking the EU on trade, technology and freedom of speech – raise concerns about the reliability of the US as an ally. – The Trump card: What could US abandonment of Europe look like? | European Union Institute for Security Studies
US – Europe – UK
(Olivia O’Sullivan – Chatham House) Last week’s Munich Security Conference marked the moment when the US told Europe emphatically that it could not rely on transatlantic support. Vice-President JD Vance’s diatribe at the event, in which he railed against the alleged cultural decline of Europe and the UK, powerfully illustrated this sudden dislocation between Washington and European capitals. It is right for the UK to now step in and take a leading role defending Ukraine and the continent: it is one of Europe’s few full-spectrum military powers, Europe contains its closest trading partners, and the region is key to UK security. – What the UK should do in defence of Ukraine and Europe | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US – Southeast Asia
(Hoang Thi Ha – FULCRUM) US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric in past weeks has sparked a chain reaction of alarm in Southeast Asia. If his words become deeds, the region’s uneven but evident bedrock of trust in the US, carefully built up since World War Two’s end, could slowly turn to dust. – Trump’s Territorial Ambitions Send Tremors Beyond the Western Hemisphere | FULCRUM
