From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Asia Pacific, Australia, Australia-US, China-India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Germany, Global Governance, India-Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Japan-US, Middle East, New Zealand-AUKUS, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, Southeast Asia, Sudan, Syria, UK
Asia Pacific
(UN News) The Asia-Pacific region is significantly off track in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with most targets either stalled or off pace – despite ongoing efforts, according to a new UN report. – Asia-Pacific falling behind on sustainable development and climate targets | UN News
Australia
(Melissa Conley Tyler, Viet Dung Trinh – East Asia Forum) Facing an unpredictable 2025, Australia is striving to meet economic challenges through two strategies, committing to domestic industry incentives under the Future Made in Australia Act and promoting open trade and global investment reflected in the Trading Nation report. The fusion of these strategies aims to foster the domestic workforce and support renewable energy and technological advancement while maintaining an open global trading system to counter economic coercion and ensure continued national prosperity. – Can Australia stay resilient in an unpredictable 2025? | East Asia Forum
Australia – US
(Matthew Sussex – Lowy The Interpreter) Both Moscow and Beijing will be jubilant, watching a unilateralist America throw tariffs and diplomatic extortion about like drunken punches. Donald Trump’s willingness to berate America’s allies, while cosying up to autocrats and overturning 80 years of US strategic policy, is matched only by his enthusiastic gutting of American democracy at home. For Australians there’s little point in bleating, indulgently saying “we told you so”, or nostalgic wishful thinking. What matters is what we do, starting now. – It’s time for an Australian strategy of national resilience | Lowy Institute
(Andrew Horton – ASPI The Strategist) Australia must adopt a sophisticated and multi-layered strategy to engage the second Trump administration on trade and security. Australia must frame its trade relationship with the US in terms of its direct contribution to US national security and job creation. Donald Trump’s second presidency, not yet 100 days old, is already sending shockwaves across the global trade. Australia’s economic and national security and the future of Indo-Pacific security architecture depend on navigating an unpredictable trade landscape. Understanding the new administration’s trade policies and their link to broader security considerations is essential for Australia’s economic prosperity and broader national interests. – Securing Australia’s interests in a Trumpian trade world | The Strategist
China – India
(Nilanjan Ghosh, Sayanangshu Modak – Observer Research Foundation) Since the publication of the book Water: Asia’s New Battleground by Brahma Chellaney in 2011, media narratives and public discourse have been rife with concerns about the deleterious impacts of potential Chinese diversions of the Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra river system. The position propagating that China could dry out India’s Northeast region through dam construction and water diversion while withholding sediment crucial for downstream floodplain formation has also been referred to in the literature as the Brahma Hypothesis. While China’s upstream hydro-hegemony warrants moral and ethical scrutiny, the entire discourse on the Brahmaputra hydropolitics remains shrouded by a critical void — the absence of hard data. Such a data deficit discourse has consequently resulted in unsubstantiated myths, turning speculation into popular rhetoric thereby aggravating the already fragile hydropolitical landscape of the basin. – How data deficiency is hindering hydro-diplomacy between China and India
(Opangmeren Jamir – Manohar Parrikar Institute) The Chinese government granted approval on 25 December 2024 to build the largest hydroelectric dam in the world—the 60 GW dam at the Great Bend of the Medog County in the Xizang (Tibet) Autonomous Region. The announcement of this latest mega project is unsurprising as it was featured in China’s 14th Five Year Plan (2021–2025) as, ‘The development of hydropower in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River’. Subsequently, on 26 November 2020, Yan Zhiyong, Chairman of the China Power Construction Group Co. Ltd., declared that the project will be “for national security, including water resources and domestic security” as well as cooperation between China and South Asia. There is unease in India that the project will reduce the flow of water in the Brahmaputra. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) urged the Chinese to ensure “that the interests of downstream states of the Brahmaputra are not harmed” and stated that India will continue to monitor the project to protect its interests. Chinese officials have insisted that ‘in-depth’ scientific evaluations will be carried out on the project to safeguard the ecological environment and that they “will continue to maintain communication” with the riparian states. – China’s Mega Dam on the Yarlung Zangbo: India’s Concerns – MP-IDSA
Democratic Republic of the Congo
(UN News) The UN World Food Programme (WFP) has condemned the looting of thousands of tonnes of relief supplies in the city of Bukavu in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), after Rwanda-backed M23 rebels swept in at the weekend, reportedly meeting little resistance. – DR Congo crisis: WFP condemns looting in Bukavu after M23 rebels take key city | UN News
Germany
(Marcus Colla – Lowy The Interpreter) Just a handful of days shy of a federal election, a dark mood has engulfed Germany. The country has entered its third year of recession. Global events have put paid to the old cliché that stability and success depend on “security from America, gas from Russia, and exports to China”. The extreme-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party has established itself as the country’s second largest. And Germany’s politics itself – once a ballast of compromise-driven conciliation and centrist good sense – has assumed an unusual tenor of malice and recrimination, between the individual leaders, between the parties, and indeed between Berlin and the federal states. – The miseries of Germany’s navel-gazing | Lowy Institute
Global Governance
(UN Security Council) Today, the Security Council will hold a ministerial-level open debate on “Practicing Multilateralism, Reforming and Improving Global Governance” under the “Maintenance of international peace and security” agenda item. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is expected to chair the meeting, which is the signature event of China’s Council presidency. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to brief. No outcome is planned. – Ministerial-Level Open Debate on “Practicing Multilateralism, Reforming and Improving Global Governance” : What’s In Blue : Security Council Report
India – Sri Lanka
(Talal Rafi – Observer Research Foundation) This brief examines the importance of economic integration between India and Sri Lanka in fostering both nations’ growth as well as regional stability. Their deep cultural, historical, and geographic ties support an evolving economic relationship driven by trade, investment, and connectivity. As Sri Lanka’s largest trading partner and investor, India plays a pivotal role in its economic recovery, particularly following Sri Lanka’s recent economic crisis. The brief highlights the mutual benefits of integration: Sri Lanka can access India’s large and expanding market, attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and leverage India’s cost-effective energy solutions. India, for its part, can enhance its regional security, counter rival influences, and strengthen its strategic presence in the Indian Ocean region. Key opportunities include expanding trade agreements, investing in infrastructure and renewable energy ventures, and enhancing maritime connectivity. – The Benefits of Economic Integration Between India and Sri Lanka
Indonesia
(Muhammad Faisal Javier Anwar – East Asia Forum) President Prabowo Subianto’s vision for Indonesian industrialisation faces significant challenges as his administration clings to protectionist policies inherited from Jokowi. Conflicts with Apple over local content requirements highlight how these restrictive measures could deter crucial foreign investment. While neighbouring Vietnam embraces global value chains and attracts manufacturers, Indonesia’s focus on import substitution and commodity downstreaming threatens to undermine its industrial development goals and limit job creation in high-productivity sectors. – Indonesia must abandon protectionism to achieve industrial growth | East Asia Forum
Japan – US
(Dalbir Ahlawat, Ryosuke Hanada – ASPI The Strategist) Japan’s relationship with the new Trump administration is off to not a bad start: so far, the two countries are agreeing on more than they are disagreeing. The big development in the relationship since Donald Trump’s inauguration has been Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s meeting with him on 7 February. – Japan navigates a course through Trump-era shoals | The Strategist
Middle East
(UN News) OCHA cited Gaza’s Ministry of Health which stressed that oxygen supplies are critically needed to keep emergency, surgical and intensive care services running at hospitals, including Al Shifa and Al Rantisi hospitals in Gaza City. “Health partners are engaging with the authorities to bring in generators, spare parts and equipment required to produce oxygen locally in Gaza,” the agency said. – Humanitarians underscore need for urgent and sustained support in Gaza | UN News
(Kelly Campa, Katherine Wells, Ria Reddy, Johanna Moore, and Nicholas Carl)
Syria: Bloomberg reported that Russia appears to be nearing a deal with the Syrian interim government to retain a reduce military presence in Syria.
Lebanon: The IDF announced plans to remain indefinitely at five locations in southern Lebanon, as the IDF withdraws from most other positions. – Iran Update, February 17, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
New Zealand – AUKUS
(Oliver Sinclair – Lowy The Interpreter) In February 2024, New Zealand’s national government explored an interest in joining AUKUS Pillar II, the strand of the Australia–UK–US security partnership responsible for the sharing of advanced technologies such as quantum computing, artificial intelligence and hypersonic weapons. A confidential Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade briefing paper suggested AUKUS contained “opportunities” for New Zealand’s defence industry and that it “aligns with New Zealand’s strategic policy settings … across multiple fronts”. The decision to join AUKUS seems close to foregone, with New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Winston Peters citing “powerful reasons” to do so. – Why New Zealand should not join AUKUS Pillar II | Lowy Institute
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(UN News) Briefing ambassadors in the Security Council ahead of the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Miroslav Jenča, Assistant Secretary-General for Europe in the political and peacebuilding department (DPPA), stressed diplomatic efforts must focus on securing a just and lasting peace. – Sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine paramount, Security Council hears | UN News
(Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, Davit Gasparyan, Olivia Gibson, Grace Mappes, Kelly Campa, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan with Nate Trotter – Institute for the Study of War)
The Kremlin reiterated its demands that Ukraine cede additional territory in eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia and disband the Ukrainian military in the future while continuing to message that the Kremlin is unwilling to make territorial concessions itself in any future peace negotiations.
Lavrov and Nebenzya also categorically rejected European involvement in future peace negotiations and accused European countries of being aggressive toward Russia.
The Kremlin also appears to be resurrecting Putin’s previous demands and information operations aimed at delegitimizing Ukraine and its government in the eyes of the West – notably ahead of the February 18 Russia-US bilateral meeting in Saudi Arabia.
The Russian delegation participating in Russian-American talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on February 18 does not include one of the members of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s innermost circle who had been reported as a likely negotiator.
Ukrainian forces continue to conduct drone strikes against Russian energy facilities supplying the Russian military.
Russian commanders continue to give orders for Russian forces to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) on the frontline.
Unspecified sources told Bloomberg that Russia appears to be nearing a deal with the Syrian interim government to maintain a “reduced” military presence in Syria.
Russian forces advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
Russian occupation authorities continue to violate the Geneva Convention by conscripting civilians in occupied Ukraine to serve in the Russian military. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 17, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Southeast Asia
(Jeslyn Tan – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Southeast Asia hosts some of the world’s most critical sea lines of communication (SLOCs). Approximately 67 percent of Australia’s export value and slightly over 40 percent of its import value traverse the Indonesian archipelago, which is linked to key maritime routes such as the Straits of Malacca, the South China Sea, and the Sulawesi Sea. Any disruptions to these Southeast Asian SLOCs, which are vulnerable to various maritime threats, would be detrimental to Australia’s economic security. This makes Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) in Southeast Asia crucial, including through sharing information that allows states and law enforcement agencies to establish a comprehensive “Common Operating Picture.” – Strengthening Maritime Domain Awareness: A Common Maritime Database in Southeast Asia – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Sudan
(UN News) More than one in two people in war-torn Sudan have too little to eat, famine “is taking hold” and sexual violence is rife, the UN’s top aid official said on Monday, as the global body launched an appeal for $6 billion to avert a humanitarian catastrophe in the devastated country and beyond. – UN launches $6 billion Sudan appeal, as famine takes hold | UN News
Syria
(UN News) “Mine action partners continue to report casualties due to explosive ordnance, and that is happening sadly on an almost daily basis,” Mr. Dujarric explained in a press briefing on Monday in New York. Farmers and shepherds are particularly vulnerable. Since January, more than 60 people have been killed and over 90 injured, many while tending to their land or grazing animals. – Syria: Mine casualties persist as UN partners scale up clearance operations | UN News
UK
(Ashraf Nehal – Observer Research Foundation) On 20 January 2025, as Donald Trump raised his hand to take the presidential oath for the second time, Nigel Farage stood among the cheering crowd—a moment that symbolised more than just a personal allegiance. It marked the convergence of two political worlds: Trump’s combative populism and Farage’s unrelenting ambition to reshape British politics. For Farage, this was not just a spectacle; it was a declaration that “Reform UK” is here to upend the status quo. Nigel Farage’s presence at Trump’s inauguration was no mere coincidence. Their alliance, forged during the Brexit campaign, reflects a transatlantic partnership rooted in a shared disdain for the elites and an ability to channel public discontent. Farage has consistently leveraged this relationship to bolster his political relevance, even offering his services to Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government. He claimed that his “personal friendship” with Trump could strengthen UK-US ties, positioning himself as a key figure in shaping post-Brexit diplomacy. – Reform UK: A new force in British politics or a temporary trend?
