From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Australia-China; Central Asia; India; Indonesia; Iraq; Russia; Russia-Africa; Russia-Belarus; Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond); Thailand; US; US-Iran; US-Somalia
Australia – China
(Guangyi Pan – East Asia Forum) The power asymmetry between Australia and China exacerbates misunderstandings, with each nation viewing the other’s actions through differing lenses. Australia perceives China’s regional moves as security threats, while China sees Australia’s stance as an alignment with US containment efforts. This mismatch, along with misread intentions, creates a cycle of mistrust and friction. Resolving this requires mutual recognition of strategic concerns and greater understanding to break the cycle of antagonism and build a more stable bilateral relationship. – Australia–China misperceptions a product of their asymmetric relationship | East Asia Forum
Central Asia
(Nurbek Bekmurzaev – The Jamestown Foundation) The presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan resolved the last major border conflict in Central Asia through the Agreement on the Junction Point of the State Borders of the Three Countries signed in Khujand, Tajikistan, on March 31. The resolution of border issues in the Fergana Valley ends decades of conflict rooted in Soviet-era delimitation that disregarded local ethnic and geographic factors. This agreement enhances regional stability, opens doors to increased international investment, and boosts cooperation on major infrastructure projects in the region, such as the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and the CASA-1000 electricity initiative. – Territorial Disputes no Longer Threaten Peace and Stability in Central Asia – Jamestown
India
(The Soufan Center) India’s parliament recently passed the Waqf Amendment Act 2025, which could expand state control over Muslim-owned waqf properties and raises concerns about the expropriation of religious sites, facilitating the erasure of Muslims from the public sphere. The Act has triggered widespread violent protests in India, notably in Muslim-majority districts of West Bengal, where local political dynamics – driven by both the Bharatiya Janata Party and state leadership – are deliberately stoking religious tensions for political gain. Members of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party have publicly propagated false narratives about the economic status of Muslims, leveraging anti-Muslim conspiracy theories to justify the Waqf Bill and to incite violence against Muslims. The recent Waqf Act is part of the BJP’s ongoing campaign to undermine the rights and autonomy of India’s Muslim population and the latest in a string of policies enacted during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tenure to systematically marginalize minority communities. – Waqf Amendment Act 2025: A Strategic Move in the Hindu Nationalist Playbook – The Soufan Center
Indonesia
(Dylan Motin – East Asia Forum) Indonesia’s geographic seclusion makes it an ‘offshore balancer’ that typically focuses on domestic development over continental power politics. But offshore balancers may abandon neutrality and become more assertive when faced with a potential regional hegemon. In Indonesia’s case, the rise of China has begun to push the state towards counterbalancing. – Understanding Indonesia as an offshore balancer | East Asia Forum
Iraq
(The Soufan Center) Iraq’s central government is struggling to assert its writ as outside powers, including Iran, the U.S., and Türkiye, exert influence over government decisions. Having become the preponderant power in neighboring Syria, Ankara joins Washington and Tehran as a key actor in Iraq. The Iraq-Türkiye oil pipeline remains closed because of financial disputes between the Kurdish-run enclave in northern Iraq and the central government in Baghdad. Some Iran-backed Iraqi militias appear to be resisting U.S. and Iraqi government pressure to disarm and fold into the national command and political structure. – Baghdad Struggles Against Outside Influences – The Soufan Center
Russia
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s state-registered Cossack movement held its “Great Cossack Circle” meeting on February 25, highlighting Moscow’s growing investment in using the Cossacks as a state-managed substitute for authentic civil society. The “Great Cossack Circle” meeting emphasized Cossack military identity and pro-war sentiment, comparing Russia’s war against Ukraine to World War II. Out of 140,000 registered Cossacks, 50,000 have fought in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Government support for the consolidation of Cossack organizations around military identity is an indication of the regime’s intent to make the Cossacks a Kremlin stronghold within Russian society. – Russia’s Cossack Movement Holds Second “Great Circle” in Two Years – Jamestown
Russia – Africa
(Andrew McGregor – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s rehabilitation of an abandoned airbase in the Libyan desert offers an opportunity to create a reliable line of supply to Russian forces operating in West Africa. A Russian military presence close to the borders of Egypt, Sudan, and Chad could make Moscow a player in regional politics and security activities. Moscow continues to navigate a complex system of regional rivalries and alliances, which leaves it open to counter-moves by interested parties in the West. – Russia Increasing Military Presence in Africa by Reviving Desert Airbase in the Libyan Sahara – Jamestown
Russia – Belarus
(Alexander Taranov – The Jamestown Foundation) Since 2022, significant military construction has occurred in Asipovichy, Belarus, including new Iskander-M missile systems hangars, ammunition storage, and barracks at Military Unit 61732 (465th Missile Brigade).
Satellite imagery confirms the near completion of facilities designed to support a new missile brigade with 12 nuclear-capable launchers, indicating growing Russian tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) capabilities in Belarus. The nearby 1405th Artillery Ammunition Base (Military Unit 42707)—a suspected TNW warhead storage site—has undergone extensive fortification and modernization. These changes follow Russian President Vladimir Putin’s March 2023 declaration to station TNWs in Belarus. A dedicated railway line is under construction to connect the 1405th Base with the 465th Missile Brigade. This will enable 30-minute deployment cycles for nuclear-armed Iskander-М missiles and reflect the establishment of a Repair and Technical Base (RTB) for TNWs and readiness for their operational use from Belarusian territory. – Russia Develops Infrastructure for Operational Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons from Belarusian Territory – Jamestown
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(Max Boot – Council on Foreign Relations) U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff arrived in Paris on Wednesday to consult with French leaders about President Donald Trump’s efforts to negotiate a cease-fire in Ukraine, among other topics. The trip could be interpreted as a welcome recalibration by the Trump administration given how little heed its officials have previously paid to European views—and how often the president has belittled these allies for supposedly not paying enough for defense and not trading fairly with the United States. Now, with the Trump administration seeing the chances of a Ukraine cease-fire slipping away, its representatives seem to be hoping the French can help salvage Trump’s hopes of ending the Russia-Ukraine war. French President Emmanuel Macron is leading Europe’s effort to provide Kyiv security guarantees if a deal is hammered out. – Is a Russia-Ukraine Cease-Fire Deal Slipping Away From Trump? | Council on Foreign Relations
Thailand
(Napon Jatusripitak – East Asia Forum) Thailand’s longstanding urban–rural political divide is evolving. While Bangkok’s middle class once backed the conservative establishment, many now embrace the reformist Move Forward Party (MFP), whose support extends beyond the capital to rural provinces. Shifting voter behaviour reflects a convergence of urban democratic consciousness and rural reformist aspirations. But true power ultimately remains with the military-backed establishment, which continues to override electoral mandates through constitutional and institutional mechanisms. – Thailand’s tale of two democracies revisited | East Asia Forum
US
(Caitlin Welsh, Zane Swanson – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Policymakers frame U.S. food security in terms of the strength of the U.S. agriculture sector and the food security and nutrition status of Americans. The H5N1 subtype of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), or bird flu, has caused unprecedented damage to poultry flocks in the United States and contributed to record-high egg prices. A mutation of the virus has also infected dairy cattle, threatening significant losses to the dairy industry and increased milk prices, while also portending greater risk to human health. How is HPAI affecting agriculture in the United States, how could it affect food security and nutrition among U.S. citizens, and what more needs to be done to address it? – How Is Bird Flu Impacting Agriculture and Food Security in the United States?
US – Iran
(Jonathan Panikoff – Atlantic Council) Last Saturday’s mostly indirect negotiations between US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi marked an abrupt turnaround for US President Donald Trump. In 2018, during his first term, Trump ended US participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiated by his predecessor, President Barack Obama, and criticized the deal’s sunset clauses, sanctions relief, and failure to address Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional malign influence. Despite those legitimate critiques of the deal, many Iran-watchers (myself included) believed that the JCPOA was the best of a lot of bad options because it provided the one thing that is the hardest to cultivate: time. – Trump can’t afford to simply revive Obama’s Iran nuclear deal – Atlantic Council
US – Somalia
(Danielle Cosgrove, Doug Livermore – Atlantic Council) Amid a deepening security crisis, the Trump administration is reportedly considering whether to reduce the US footprint in Somalia, for example by closing the US embassy in Mogadishu. This potential reversal comes even as the United States continues to carry out airstrikes against Somali militants. Islamist insurgents, including al-Shabaab and the Somali affiliate of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS-S), are making territorial gains. These two groups represent distinct but overlapping threats—each transnational, each integrated into broader jihadist ecosystems, and each capable of destabilizing regional and global security if left unchecked. They are also quickly evolving, including by increasing connections with other groups and malign state actors such as the Islamic Republic of Iran—creating larger geostrategic implications. To address this evolution, the United States must remain engaged in Somalia; but that does not necessarily require escalation. Strategic engagement through a forward embassy, regional partnerships, and calibrated intelligence operations can disrupt the evolution of the terrorist threat in Somalia—and it costs far less than what it would take to contain fully metastasized, adaptive adversaries down the road. – The US must sustain counterterrorism operations in Somalia—the costs of retreat are too high – Atlantic Council
