From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
ASEAN – Myanmar
(Fitriani, Amara Thiha – ASPI The Strategist) Typhoon Yagi was a disaster for Myanmar last month, killing hundreds. But some good can come from it if the Association of Southeast Asian Nations uses the occasion to promote peace in the strife-torn country. To facilitate humanitarian relief, military government and its armed oppositions have to negotiate a ceasefire. ASEAN should link international relief efforts to broader peacebuilding initiatives, creating a foundation for a longer-term dialogue. – Typhoon relief is an opportunity for ASEAN to promote peace in Myanmar | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Australia – South Korea
(Sangsoon Lee – ASPI The Strategist) Australia and South Korea should collaborate on space technology by building and launching small surveillance satellites from Australian space launch facilities. It would be in the military and industrial interests of both countries to do so. Over the past 30 years, South Korea has made significant progress in space technology. In 2022, it became the seventh nation capable of independent space launches, with its Nuri rocket. A few months later, South Korea’s first lunar probe, Danuri, reached the Moon’s orbit, where it is surveying future lunar landing sites. – Space: an opportunity for South Korea and Australian defence cooperation | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Azerbaijan – BRICS
(Vasif Huseynov – The Jamestown Foundation) Azerbaijan announced its application for BRICS membership on August 20, which has been backed by Russian leaders and emphasizes Azerbaijan’s goal of strengthening ties with China following the China-Azerbaijan joint strategic partnership declaration in July. The increased importance of the South Caucasus region and Azerbaijan’s potential membership in BRICS places it in a position to maintain ties with Russia and China while building relations with the West. Economic opportunities such as the Middle Corridor and the International North–South Transportation Corridor pursued in conjunction with other BRICS member states would allow Baku to reduce its economic dependency on oil and gas exports. – Azerbaijan Applies for BRICS Membership – Jamestown
Cameroon
(Arrey Elvis Ntui – Crisis Group) Norwegian police have arrested a Cameroonian separatist leader, Lucas Ayaba Cho, on charges of incitement of crimes against humanity, marking the first major attempt to address impunity in the country’s Anglophone conflict. – Arrest of Separatist Leader Puts Spotlight on Cameroon’s Anglophone Conflict | Crisis Group
China – Pakistan
(Filippo Boni – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The initial enthusiasm for the nearly US$30bn that China injected into Pakistan has now vanished. Rather, CPEC has become entangled in Pakistani domestic politics, even as the BRI has transformed Pakistan and its future. – China, Pakistan, and the Belt and Road Initiative: 10 years of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Circular Economy
(Kris Hartley – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The circular economy offers a potential paradigm shift in addressing global crises by reducing material waste and fostering innovation. However, its benefits are tempered by political and social challenges, highlighting the need for careful consideration of the broader economic and environmental context in which it is implemented. – Can the Circular Economy be an Answer to Global Crisis? – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Hungary – USA
(Daniel Hegedüs, Zsuzsanna Végh – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Hungary’s government clearly wants the former US president to return to the White House and has been cultivating him and his wing of the Republican Party. A Harris victory would be a significant setback for Orbán. – Will Orbán’s Trump Bet Pay Off? | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
Laos
(Hoang Anh Q. Nguyen – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The Laos government has an investment plan that will aid national development and contribute to a broader green energy revolution in Southeast Asia. High debt levels and the promise of ecological destruction along the Mekong has raised concerns, and may prove prohibitive without careful engagement and regional backing. – Laos’ Megawatt Ambitions: Energising Regional Geopolitics – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Muneer Bin Wabar – The Washington Institute) Fifteen years ago, there was a small village in Hadramaut named Al-Makhbiya, a name that translates to “The Hidden.” The village was named for the forest of palm trees that enshrouded it, but today that palm forest no longer exists, and many families have abandoned the village. This is just one example of the many Yemeni communities affected by climate change, whose vibrant green landscapes have been replaced with sand and desolate mud. Water scarcity and desertification are among the most complex challenges facing Yemen. The country suffers from chronic water shortages and a high rate of desertification, not to mention natural disasters like floods, droughts, and changing weather patterns such as rising temperatures. All these challenges negatively impact the country’s infrastructure, economy, food production, and the spread of diseases, painting a bleak future for Yemenis who are already relentlessly being pushed to the brink of famine. – From Palms to Sands: How Climate Change is Destroying Green Yemen | The Washington Institute
(Noam Raydan – The Washington Institute) On July 20, the Houthis attempted to attack the container ship Pumba (IMO 9302566) with an unmanned surface vehicle, claiming that the vessel was American. Security personnel on board were able to destroy the sea drone, and the ship, which was sailing from Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, continued its journey to Port Klang in Malaysia. In the following months, Pumba continued trading in the Red Sea, and data from MarineTraffic shows that on September 27 it crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait on its way to China. This time, however, there was no Houthi attack. – The Ship Operators Shrugging Off Houthi Attacks | The Washington Institute
(Arash Ghafouri – Middle East Institute) The results of the latest public opinion survey from Stasis Consulting provide key insights into how Iranians view Tehran’s foreign policy, regional influence, and diplomatic relations at a time of heightened tensions in the Middle East, including how they perceive the economic costs of Iran’s current approach and its support for its regional proxy groups. Iranians overwhelmingly believe that the country’s foreign policy is responsible for ordinary citizens’ economic troubles, with more than three-quarters of survey respondents (78 percent) saying its foreign policy is very much or to an extent a cause of its economic problems, while nearly two-thirds (63 percent) believe Tehran’s foreign policy does not advance the well-being of ordinary citizens. – New polling highlights Iranians’ views on Iran’s foreign policy and regional role | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
(Natasha Hall – Center for Strategic & International Studies) The international community’s failure to deter or punish Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons risks incentivizing the use of chemical weapons by others. Assad’s use of chemical weapons has highlighted their military effectiveness and undermined the norms prohibiting their use. Increasing multipolarity has made international accountability more challenging. Actors are likely to challenge existing norms by gradually escalating their chemical weapons use from riot-control agents to toxic industrial chemicals or pharmaceutical-based agents while spreading disinformation and impeding evidence collection. The United States should strengthen detection and accountability mechanisms to deter future chemical weapons usage. It should work with allies and partners to prioritize the early detection and prevention of chemical weapons development, develop backchannels to establish deterrence, and define clear red lines against chemical weapons usage. – Emerging Trends in Chemical Weapons Usage in the Middle East (csis.org)
Moldova and Georgia
(James Nixey – Chatham House) Moldova and Georgia both go to the polls at the end of October; Moldova for presidential elections on the 20th and Georgia for parliamentary elections on the 26th. The two countries share a number of similarities – beyond their justified reputation as world-class wine producers. They are both small, low- to middle-income countries that have struggled to consolidate their democracies and have experienced oligarchic political influence. Both are candidate countries for EU membership, with Moldova a step ahead having been invited to start negotiations. – Moldova and Georgia face crucial elections – and diverging paths | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Russia
(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian officials have begun to address the degrading state of critical civilian infrastructure, particularly heating systems, ahead of the coming winter. The past few years have seen catastrophic incidents leaving many Russians without heat. Russian officials blame numerous sources for these issues—including Russian citizens themselves—while the Kremlin’s preferred narrative is that the solution to infrastructural degradation is nationalization. Public discontent caused by worsening living standards and mounting socio-economic challenges could prove to be far more damaging to the Russian regime than military losses in Ukraine, as these issues more directly affect the lives of everyday Russians. – Russia’s Deteriorating Infrastructure on Verge of Collapse, Threatening Tough Winter Ahead – Jamestown
Russia – North Korea
(Khang Vu – Lowy The Interpreter) Reports are circulating that North Korea is sending troops to Russian-occupied Donbas, and some might have even been killed and wounded. The Washington Post, quoting a Ukrainian intelligence official, reported that “several thousand” North Korean infantry solders are receiving training in Russia and they could be deployed to the front line in Ukraine by the end of 2024. A Western diplomat told the Kyiv Independent that North Korea has sent 10,000 soldiers to Russia. The South Korean government concurred that there is a high possibility of North Korea sending troops to Russia due to the defence pact recently inked by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s chairman Kim Jong-un in June. Russia, for its part, has denied the accusation. – North Korean troops in Russia: The first test of the Russia-North Korea alliance | Lowy Institute
Russia’s War on Ukraine
(John Lough – Chatham House) There are four possible outcomes for Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine: ‘long war’, ‘frozen conflict’, ‘victory for Ukraine’ and ‘defeat for Ukraine’. Regardless of which scenario emerges, the far-reaching and traumatic sociological, economic and political impacts of the war will be inescapable. – Four scenarios for the end of the war in Ukraine | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Vadim Shtepa – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s war against Ukraine has turned into the first major full-scale drone war, and Ukraine is dominating this aspect of the conflict through its innovation and leadership in drone production. Moscow is lagging behind in the drone war, relying on outdated Iranian drones and facing technological limitations due to global sanctions despite efforts such as drone production and training programs. While Ukraine leads in drone production and continues to attack Russia’s own infrastructure, Russia still has more resources than Ukraine. For Ukraine to turn the tide of war, Western allies must continue to supply long-range weapons and authorize their use at range against targets in Russia. – Ukrainian Drone War Shakes Up Russian Society – Jamestown
South Africa – Russia
(Ray Hartley, Greg Mills – RUSI) South Africa’s deepening ties with Russia and other autocratic regimes threaten both its trade relationships with the West and its fragile political unity. – Ramaphosa’s Russia Flirtation Imperils More Than South Africa’s Image | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Space
(Malcolm Davis – ASPI The Strategist) SpaceX took a big step towards full reusability of space launchers on 13 October, a step towards a transformation in accessing space far more cheaply, frequently and with big payloads. The remarkably successful fifth test flight of the Starship launcher on that day saw a spectacular recovery of the rocket’s 300-ton first stage, Super Heavy, into the arms of the launch pad gantry. The second stage, also called Starship, meanwhile climbed and accelerated to almost orbital velocity and splashed down precisely in the targeted Indian Ocean location off Western Australia. This took the company closer to landing second stages for re-use. – The Starship revolution in space | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Taiwan
(Council on Foreign Relations) Oriana Mastro, a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and David Sacks, a fellow for Asia studies at CFR, sit down with James M. Lindsay to discuss U.S. policy toward Taiwan in light of talk that China might seek to compel the island’s reunification with the mainland. – The Taiwan Challenge, With Oriana Mastro and David Sacks (Election 2024, Episode 5) | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
USA
(German Marshall Fund of the United States) What do Americans think about their forthcoming presidential election and how might their foreign policy views affect their views of the candidates? Visiting Senior Fellow Bruce Stokes looks at recent public opinion polling in the United States and highlights the interesting findings. – Public Opinion: The US Election Three Weeks Out | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
(Brookings) Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have offered starkly different visions for immigration policy. To assess the likely economic implications of these proposals, the authors forecast inflows and outflows of immigrants under a high- and low-immigration scenario for each candidate. These migration flows are then used to estimate the likely effect of immigration policies on GDP growth in 2025 and over a 10-year period. Overall, differences in immigration policy alone could cause GDP growth in 2025 to be roughly half a percentage point—or $130 billion—lower in a second Trump administration than under a Harris administration. – Immigration and the macroeconomy after 2024 (brookings.edu)
