Geostrategic magazine (18 October 2024)

From global think tanks

The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye

Australia

(Meg Keen – Lowy The Interpreter) Australia has just released its long anticipated Humanitarian Policy that aims to shape a world “where humanitarian assistance is needed far less often”. It is a welcome initiative, but to achieve its priorities, more whole-of-community engagement and ambition is required. Around the world, political and environmental crises are taking an ever-increasing toll on lives, livelihoods and even national viability. In addition, the death toll last year for humanitarian workers was the worst on record, and this year it is likely to be even more dire. – Can Australia’s new Humanitarian Policy deliver? | Lowy Institute

China – South China Sea 

(Chatham House) The discovery of a new radar system on China’s Triton Island military base shows that Beijing is rapidly developing its intelligence capacities in contested waters, write John Pollock and Damien Symon. – How Beijing is closing surveillance gaps in the South China Sea | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Climate Action and Sustainable Development

(Katie Reytar, Peter Veit, Johanna von Braun – World Resources Institute) In 2022, countries reached a historic agreement to halt biodiversity loss by conserving at least 30% of land and water by 2030. This marked a critical step toward protecting the world’s precious remaining species and ecosystems. But that’s not all: The Global Biodiversity Framework, as it’s known, also explicitly calls on countries to recognize and uphold Indigenous Peoples and local communities’ rights in their conservation strategies. Fulfilling this part of the pledge will be instrumental to its success. – Why Securing Indigenous Land Rights Protects Biodiversity | World Resources Institute (wri.org)

(Liz Saccoccia, Samantha Kuzma – Woarld Resources Institute) One out of every 11 people in the world grapples with hunger. A hidden and growing driver is lack of water. New WRI analysis shows that one-quarter of the world’s crops are grown in areas where the water supply is highly stressed, highly unreliable or both. Mounting risks like climate change and increased competition for water are threatening water supplies and, in turn, food security. Rice, wheat and corn — which provide more than half the world’s food calories — are particularly vulnerable: 33% of these three staple crops are produced using water supplies that are highly stressed or highly variable. – Data Reveals Crops Most Threatened by Water Shortages | World Resources Institute (wri.org)

COP 29

(Ruth Townend – Chatham House) COP29, the 29th UN annual conference on climate change, takes place in Baku, Azerbaijan from 11–22 November 2024. Every COP conference is an important opportunity for international collaboration on climate change. COP29 will have a particular focus on how to make finance available to developing countries for climate action. COP29 is already contentious, because Azerbaijan’s economy is highly dependent on fossil fuels, the main cause of climate change. That means that Azerbaijan’s government, which will preside over the summit, has a strong incentive to avoid rapid multilateral progress towards phasing out fossil fuels. It’s urgent that progress is made at COP29. Climate action lags far behind both what has been promised by countries, and what scientists agree is needed. The impacts of climate change are also rapidly escalating, while backlash against government policies to reduce fossil fuel use is being seen in many places around the world. – What is COP29 and why is it important? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Cyprus

(Aynur Kerimu – The Jamestown Foundation) Cyprus has been deeply influenced by Russian interests over the past 30 years, becoming a hub for Russian oligarchs and the country’s financial sector to launder money and avoid Western sanctions. While the European Union has imposed restrictions on Cyprus, the island’s division has allowed the unrecognized north to become a grey zone for financial activity, which wealthy Russians have been taking advantage of for years. Much of Cyprus believes in Russian propaganda narratives, specifically regarding the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. The degree to which Russian media and propaganda have influenced local views reflects the extent of Russia’s soft power on the island. – Cyprus: Hub for Russian Influence, Money Laundering, and Sanctions Evasion – Jamestown

Georgia – West

(Giorgi Menabde – The Jamestown Foundation) The European Parliament adopted a resolution requesting sanctions on Georgia and its informal leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili, following the parliamentary elections on October 26 if they are not free and fair. Ivanishvili and his team claim that the West has already informally sanctioned the billionaire, but the US Embassy in Tbilisi sharply criticized Ivanishvili for these unsubstantiated accusations. The Georgian opposition demands that Western partners impose personal sanctions against Ivanishvili, confident that only such a decision would send a sufficiently strong message to Georgian Dream and Georgian citizens about the importance of democracy in Georgia. – Western Actors and Georgian Opposition Demand Sanctions Against Informal Leader Ivanishvili – Jamestown

India – Russia

(Chietigj Bajpaee, Lisa Toremark – Chatham House) Explaining the history and current state of the relationship between India and Russia, its geopolitical significance, the importance of trade and defence cooperation, and the impact of the war in Ukraine. – India–Russia relations | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf 

(Jon B. Alterman – Center for Strategic & International Studies) The Israeli government announced today that its soldiers had killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in a firefight in southern Gaza. Sinwar had led Hamas in Gaza since 2017, and he was elected the chairman of the Hamas political bureau in August 2024. Sinwar was a hardliner who felt Palestinians were too conciliatory toward Israel. He was the mastermind of Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, and he was thought to have been hiding underground for much of the time since. – What Does Yahya Sinwar’s Death Mean? (csis.org)

(Middle East Institute) Israel has confirmed the death of Yahya Sinwar, chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau and Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip. Sinwar was one of the chief architects behind Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and has been a key Israeli target throughout the Gaza war. – Yahya Sinwar is killed: What comes next? | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)

(Syed Munir Khasru – Australian Institute of International Affairs) As the Gaza conflict enters its second year, the situation in the Middle East is taking an alarming turn. Having already escalated tensions by carrying out a series of high-profile assassinations, including Hassan Nasrallah, head of Hezbollah, and its top leadership, as well as Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in Tehran on 31 July during his visit for President Masaoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration, Israel has now launched a ground incursion into Lebanon, further intensifying its conflict with Iran. – How Israeli Occupation of Palestine is Aided by Double Standards – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs

(Winthrop Rodgers – Middle East Institute) Posters of candidates line the median of Salim Street in downtown Sulaymaniyah, some smiling but most looking dignified and serious. Above them, colorful strings of bunting with party logos drape from the light poles. In the nightlife district of Saholaka, groups of friends drink tea and eat sunflower seeds late into the evening, many of them discussing the ongoing election campaign. Every few minutes, a car drives by honking its horn and waving a party flag. Iraq’s Kurdistan Region will hold elections for its devolved parliament for the first time since 2018, on Oct. 20. The polls are more than two years late and come at a time of major economic and political challenges for the semi-autonomous zone. – Kurdish elections arrive — finally, and with challenges | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)

Quad

(Euan Graham – ASPI The Strategist – 18 October 2024) The Quad is hobbled in its current configuration as a diplomatic partnership that deliberately eschews defence cooperation as part of its agenda. It’s time to test the waters with a meeting of Quad defence ministers. While the navies of the four Quad members—Australia, India, Japan and the United States—hold regular joint training in a quadrilateral format through the annual Exercise Malabar, officially these drills are separate to the Quad. That is despite the fact that Malabar is described by participating countries much as they describe the Quad, as part of a ‘shared commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific’. – It’s time for a Quad defence ministers meeting | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Russia’s War on Ukraine

(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow is now increasing the age limit for military service to fill the depleted ranks of its forces in Ukraine. This is a reflection of the manpower difficulties Russia faces in its long war. Visitors to the front, officials involved in meeting the military’s needs, and officers all complain about the rising number of older men in the ranks. Russian media, however, has avoided this issue
These older soldiers are less physically able to handle their jobs, sick more often, and a source of tension with younger men. This graying of the Russian army is likely to continue, as younger men continue to be reluctant to join even with the Kremlin’s various financial incentives. – Moscow Forced to Fill Ranks With Older Men – Jamestown

USA – Middle East

(Sanam Vakil – Chatham House) Harris and Trump look set to continue US deprioritization of the region, but they would do better to enlist the support of their partners. – Will the next US president invest in Middle East stability or walk away? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Latest articles

Related articles