From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Australia; Georgia; Russia; Russia-Africa; Russia-Ukraine; South Korea; Syria-Israel; Taiwan-China; UK; US
Australia
(Victor Abramowicz – The Strategist) A crucial decision will occur in the next few months that will shape Australia’s capability against small drones for decades: the selection of the systems integration partner (SIP) for Canberra’s Land 156 drone-defence project. The government should select genuinely domestic companies both for the SIP and the rest of Land 156 to reap a trifecta of capability, sovereign industry and export benefits. Defence’s urgent need for an improved capability to counter small drones is clear. The Australian Defence Force has scant protection against such weapons, and Ukraine’s successful use of them on 1 June in Operation Spiderweb against Russia has shown that a creative adversary can use such drones to strike anywhere. – For drone defence, Canberra should choose independent Australian companies | The Strategist
Georgia
(Khatia Shamanauri – The Jamestown Foundation) Georgian Dream has detained eight prominent opposition figures ahead of the upcoming local elections, fulfilling a pre-election pledge by the honorary chairman of the ruling party, Bidzina Ivanishvili. The detentions stem from a refusal to appear before a parliamentary commission that many view as illegitimate and politically motivated. Experts, international organizations, and foreign partners warn that this is an authoritarian tactic, entirely at odds with the democratic standards expected of an EU candidate country. – Georgian Dream Detains Eight Opposition Figures – Jamestown
Russia
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) The Kremlin is using memory politics through state media, museums, and official narratives to glorify Cossack military tradition, attempting to merge “service” and “ancestral” conceptions of Cossack history to justify modern expansionism and legitimize the occupation of Ukrainian territory. The Kremlin is investing in a selective version of Cossack history to recruit volunteers into BARS (Boeviki Armii Reserv Strany, Боевой Армейский Резерв Страны) reserve units, portraying all of Cossack history as one of border defense and expansion. Out of the 19,000 Cossacks in the military, approximately 6,500 serve in BARS battalions—well-trained volunteer reserve units with private military company-like traits—making them a central force in Russia’s “stealth mobilization” efforts. – Kremlin Playing Memory Politics to Recruit Cossacks into BARS Units – Jamestown
Russia – Africa
(Alex Horobets – The Jamestown Foundation) The Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) announced its departure from Mali on June 6. The PMC’s operations in Africa enabled Russia to establish a network of influence on the continent and secure access to natural resources. Late-Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion in 2023 led to Wagner’s operations in Africa being largely taken over by the Africa Corps, a paramilitary group entirely subordinate to the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Africa Corps’ operations in place of Wagner sustain Russia’s presence in Africa but take away the Kremlin’s ability to distance itself from any crimes Russian paramilitary operations may commit on the continent. – Africa Corps Maintains Russia’s Presence in Africa After Wagner’s Departure From Mali – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine
(Yuliia Dukach, Iryna Adam, and Meredith Furbish – Atlantic Council) Russia’s ongoing territorial occupation of Ukraine’s eastern and southern regions is accompanied by an informational and cultural occupation aimed at flooding local social media communities with messaging designed to foster gratitude and loyalty to Russia. At the same time, this messaging attempts to undermine Ukraine and the Ukrainian government, and to raise doubts about Ukraine’s intentions in the territories currently occupied by Russia. As the most popular digital platform in Eastern Europe, Telegram has become the epicenter of Russian efforts to influence perceptions and opinions of local Ukrainian populations. This joint report from OpenMinds and the Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) analyzes the activity of a network of 3,634 automated accounts that posted pro-Russian comments on Telegram channels between January 2024 and April 2025 targeting Ukrainian populations inside Russian-occupied territories. These accounts crafted tailored messages to target the occupied territories, differentiating their content from that aimed at other audiences across Russia and Ukraine. Our investigation found that automated Telegram comments targeting local audiences in Ukraine fell into three overarching categories: pro-Russian propaganda, anti-Ukrainian propaganda, and abstract anti-war messaging and calls for peaceful coexistence. Individual narratives were often tailored to respond to current events and changes in local conditions, such as power or water outages, but there was also evidence of proactive narratives initiated by the network unrelated to external events. The bot network used similar messaging when targeting channels based in Russia; however, a significantly larger share of comments targeting the occupied territory channels emphasized positive portrayals of Russian culture and government. Across the sixty-nine narrative themes identified (see appendix), the bot network pushed essentially the same menu of talking points in both Russia-wide and occupied territory channels. What differentiates the content aimed at the occupied territories from that aimed at a wider Russian audience is the proportion of talking points: themes that praised Russian culture, social services, and governance dominated in occupied territory-based channels, accounting for a markedly higher share of content than in Russia-based channels. The pattern points to an effort to cultivate the appearance of local consensus in favor of occupation and Russian administrative control, but not necessarily to create genuine agreement. – Digital occupation: Pro-Russian bot networks target Ukraine’s occupied territories on Telegram – Atlantic Council
South Korea
(Afeeya Akhand – The Strategist) During his campaign, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung pledged 100 trillion Korean won (about A$112 billion) over a five-year period to turn the country into one of the top three AI powers in the world. However, faced with practical barriers such as funding constraints and talent shortages, Lee’s administration may fall short of its AI aspirations. South Korea’s transformation into a global AI powerhouse is a signature policy of Lee’s administration thus far. The policy focuses on developing the country’s AI capabilities, including a Korean-language large language model (LLM), by leveraging the expertise of five South Korean corporations, which are yet to be selected by the government. Lee’s AI push serves a dual purpose. First, in response to domestic economic woes, the government seeks to boost the country’s tech industry and accordingly consolidate global exports of AI technologies. Lee’s policy will build on the international efforts of South Korean tech companies such as KT and Naver, which are currently developing LLMs tailored to the cultural and linguistic nuances of the Thai and Saudi Arabian markets respectively. – Lee Jae-myung’s AI aspirations for South Korea may be too ambitious | The Strategist
Syria – Israel
(Atlantic Council) “The warnings in Damascus have ended—now painful blows will come.” That’s how Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz described Wednesday’s airstrikes on the Syrian capital, damaging the headquarters of the Syrian Defense Ministry. The bombing followed several days of clashes in the city of Sweida between Syrian security forces and members of the Druze religious minority, which Israel has said its strikes are intended to protect. Later Wednesday, the Syrian government and Druze leaders announced a tentative cease-fire, but Israel’s strikes continued. – Five questions (and expert answers) about Israel’s strikes against Syria – Atlantic Council
Taiwan – China
(Nathan Attrill – The Strategist) Taiwan has dramatically stepped-up efforts to address what authorities describe as a growing espionage challenge linked to China. In 2024, 64 individuals were charged with espionage-related offences—more than in the previous two years combined. According to government data, around two-thirds of those charged had military backgrounds, including active-duty personnel. In some cases, individuals were reportedly paid to leak classified materials or filmed themselves making declarations of support for Beijing, content later circulated on Chinese social media platforms. Espionage cases have also surfaced in the civilian and political spheres. In June 2025, Taiwanese prosecutors indicted four former officials affiliated with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), including former aides to President Lai Ching-te and former foreign minister Joseph Wu, for allegedly passing diplomatic information to China. Earlier that year, several members of the Presidential Office’s military security detail were convicted of leaking documents after being approached by Chinese agents. – How Taipei is fighting back against Beijing’s spies | The Strategist
UK
(Chris Sheahan – The Strategist) This September, Britain will rename Strategic Command as the Cyber & Specialist Operations Command (CSOC) following emphasis on the cyber and electromagnetic (CyberEM) domain within the Strategic Defence Review issued on 2 June, marking deep organisational and doctrinal transformation. While the change is high-level, and doesn’t reflect much restructuring, it is a significant expression of prioritisation and intent. This will hopefully see some level of replication within US and Australian military organisations creating more flexible and adaptable forces in light of the complexity of modern operations. The CSOC will house a range of critical defence functions and agencies, including: intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities; Defence Intelligence; joint command and control for targeting; the Integrated Global Defence Network; Special Forces; Defence Medical Services; and the Defence Academy. – Britain brings together cyber and EW. Australia, take note | The Strategist
US
(Rebecca Patterson – Council on Foreign Relations) The latest U.S. consumer inflation (CPI) report was striking, not least because the headline figure rose to a four-month high of 2.7 percent from June a year ago. What worries Wall Street are the details (which were quickly downplayed by the White House). Specifically, the report shows notable price increases across a broad swath of goods that are affected by tariffs—at a time when much higher tariff rates remain on the horizon. – Inflation Comes Home to Roost With the Help of Trump’s Tariffs | Council on Foreign Relations
