From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : China-Africa, Greenland, Indonesia-ASEAN, Iraq, Japan, MENA Region, Middle East, Pacific Region, Russia, Sri Lanka, Syria, Ukraine, US
China – Africa
(Samir Bhattacharya – ASPI The Strategist) To expand its influence in Africa, China has stepped up its elite capture programs from hosting delegations and training to exporting its authoritarian model of governance. Graduates are now emerging from a school for politicians and officials in Tanzania, the first of its kind that China has set up in Africa. More may follow. – China is exporting its model of political authoritarianism to Africa | The Strategist
Greenland
(Shreya Sinha – Vivekananda International Foundation) US President Donald Trump’s proposition to acquire Greenland through sale has sparked debate and put the world’s largest island back on the global agenda. This brings to the forefront the need to understand the history of Greenland’s ownership, the ever-evolving geopolitical significance of the island and the challenges and opportunities confronting it. Situated in the cold waters of the North Atlantic, this landscape has maintained its salient significance on the sidelines of European and transatlantic history. Located in the resource-rich Arctic region, 80 per cent of its territory is covered with ice and rugged tundra. – Greenland in the Arctic Chessboard: History, Geopolitics, and Strategic Importance | Vivekananda International Foundation
Indonesia – ASEAN
(Mutiara Indriani – Lowy The Interpreter) The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement last month under President Donald Trump has eroded global trust in multilateral climate commitments. A recent statement by an Indonesian climate envoy dismissing the Paris Agreement as “no longer relevant” has also sent shockwaves through Southeast Asia’s climate efforts. With a new study declaring the 2°C climate target “dead”, this rhetoric casts serious doubt on Indonesia’s commitment to its clean energy transition, and portends a significant impact on ASEAN member states. As the region’s influential leader, Indonesia’s wavering stance risks emboldening backsliding among neighbours, weakening ASEAN’s already fragile climate cooperation, and undermining hard-won environmental protections in trade and diplomacy. Worse, it could set off a domino effect, locking the region into fossil fuel dependence at a time when the rest of the world is accelerating towards renewables. – Indonesia’s climate retreat puts the region’s green future at risk | Lowy Institute
Iraq
(Benjamin Isakhan, Lynn Meskell – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Ten years ago, in February 2015, the so-called “Islamic State” released a chilling video documenting militants using sledgehammers to destroy statues and artifacts inside the Mosul Museum. This act was just one of many in their aggressive campaign to obliterate Mosul’s cultural heritage, including the ancient archaeological site of Nimrud and the 12th-century Great Mosque of al-Nuri. Hundreds of historic mosques, churches, shrines, libraries, and markets were similarly damaged or destroyed. – Heritage and Healing: A Decade on from the Destruction of the Mosul Museum – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Japan
(Rintaro Nishimura – Lowy The Interpreter) The first few months of Shigeru Ishiba’s tenure as Japan’s Prime Minister have been largely successful diplomatically, as his government concluded a summit with US President Donald Trump and kickstarted improved relations with China. Like Fumio Kishida before him, Ishiba has the job of navigating the increasingly complex and intertwined relationship between Japan and its two most important foreign counterparts, a challenge that will become ever more awkward as US-China competition intensifies. The difficulties are showing, with a growing bipartisan chorus of criticism regarding the Ishiba administration’s perceived “China leaning” materialising over the recent announcement of a visa expansion. – Japan’s US-China headache | Lowy Institute
MENA Region
(Sarah Yerkes, Saad Uakkas – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), young people (defined as fifteen to twenty-four years old) are going to bear the brunt of the climate crisis. Yet, despite representing a disproportionately large percentage of the region’s population, youth are rarely consulted in policy decisions, including around climate adaptation and mitigation. This article examines the impact of climate change on youth in MENA focusing on North Africa and how young people are fighting to make their voices heard through formal and informal mechanisms. It also explores civil society’s role in promoting youth inclusion in debates around climate, as well as the way North African governments are attempting, in sometimes meaningful ways, to incorporate the perspectives of the youth—a group that will be forced to reckon with the climate adaptation and mitigation failures of their parents and grandparents. – Youth and Climate Change in the Middle East and North Africa | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Middle East
(Samriddhi Vij – Observer Research Foundation) After 15 months of war, on 15 January 2025, Israel and Hamas finally agreed on a Hostage-Prisoner deal. Heralded as a breakthrough, the agreement helped reconcile Israel’s demand for the unconditional release of all hostages and Hamas’s insistence on a permanent ceasefire. These diametrically opposite demands were bridged by the introduction of a phased approach and replacing the term “permanent ceasefire” with “sustainable calm”. However, perfecting the terms of the deal was only the starting point. While these adjustments were proposed in May 2024, the deal was only finalised seven months later in January 2025. The key factor that determined the fate of the agreement was political ripeness, and this factor continues to dictate its future. This article aims to understand the political conditions that were necessary to finalise the deal and discuss the political environment which might lead to its breakdown. – Between war and peace: Will the Israel-Hamas deal survive?
Pacific Region
(Isabelle Zhu-Maguire – Lowy The Interpreter) Donald Trump’s retreat from the Paris Agreement was predictable. Yet we can’t overstate its potential impact. As a close follower of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the UN structure through which the Paris accord was negotiated, I believe we can best understand the impact of this decision by looking into the Pacific. Representing both the frontline of climate change’s devastating consequences, and the moral and scientific leadership of the UNFCCC, Pacific Island leaders and advocates have the most at stake in the success of the Paris deal and have intimate knowledge of the accords. – What the Pacific has said about Trump’s Paris pull-out | Lowy Institute
Russia
(Jack A. Jarmon, Stephen W. Craig – Australian Institute of International Affairs) It’s no secret that Vladimir Putin’s goal has been to undermine an international system he cannot control. His rants against the dollar-denominated world order are public and to his Kremlin loyalists, “official.” But his claims of economic autarky for Russia are blather and no more than a sign of desperation. Putin’s efforts to thwart international sanctions have been numerous. The use of tanker shadow fleets to evade Western sanctions and the US$60 p/bbl price cap, pivoting to BRICS markets for alternative energy revenue, creating subsidiary companies to resell sanctioned technology to Russia, and using jurisdictional arbitrage to circumvent banking restrictions are all part of Putin’s toolkit for countering Russia’s isolation and halting the slide toward economic ruination. – A Digital Ruble: Undermining Western Sanctions or Russia’s Economy? – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Sri Lanka
(East Asia Forum) Sri Lanka experienced a significant political shift with the September 2024 election of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party, marking a break from the country’s political establishment. Despite the JVP’s historic communist ties, the government is looking to strengthen democratic checks and establish pro-business policies to address the country’s looming debt payments in 2027 and to promote long-term economic growth. Along with its economic challenges, the government will also need to navigate geopolitical relations with India, China and the West, while managing ethnic politics at home. – Socialism with Sri Lankan characteristics | East Asia Forum
Syria
(Shlomo Ben-Ami – ASPI The Strategist) The collapse of Syria’s al-Assad dynasty, which had ruled for more than a half-century, was always going to represent a daunting challenge for the country and its neighbours. But the escalating conflict over Syria’s future between Turkey and Israel compounds the risks considerably. In Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s view, Syria could not have emerged from its ‘dark era’ had he not lent support to the militias that brought down Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Now, Erdogan sees himself as the patron of Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani), and he is eager to shape the new ‘bright’ Syria in Turkey’s image—and promote Turkey’s interests along the way. – The fight for Syria | The Strategist
Ukraine
(Oleksandr Ihnatenko – ASPI The Strategist) Western companies and entrepreneurs are largely missing a chance to invest in the thriving and innovative Ukrainian defence tech industry and take its experience back to their home markets. Failure of foreign investors to put even modest sums into the Ukrainian defence industry also means that Western armed forces are missing out on rapid developments, for example in drone technology. Foreign drone programs developed in peacetime conditions don’t have the benefit of insights and innovation from the pressure-cooker of the war in Ukraine. – The underexploited potential of Ukrainian defence tech | The Strategist
US
(Zainab Usman – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Given America’s heft as the world’s largest economy and preeminent military superpower, President Donald Trump’s sweeping agenda will surely be felt around the world. A few hours after his inauguration, Trump issued an unprecedented forty-four executive orders and memos across a wide range of areas—from bureaucratic reorganization to trade, energy, and migration—that communicated his intention to swiftly implement his policy agenda and campaign promises. The ripple effects of some of these policy shifts are likely to be significant for low and middle-income countries (LMICs) for which the United States is a major provider of development assistance, an important trade partner, and source of investments and technologies. There are six key issues addressed by Trump’s initial executive orders (EOs) that low- and middle-income countries in Africa and the Global South should pay close attention to: foreign aid, reframing energy diplomacy, the Global Tax Deal and U.S. FDI, global trade relations, WHO and global health, and spillovers of adversarial relations with China. While the Trump administration continues to implement these EOs, and indeed, facing the prospect that many aspects will be challenged in the courts, these initial executive orders provide a sense of the overarching policy direction. – The Six Areas in Trump’s Executive Orders that Countries in Africa and the Global South Should Pay Attention to | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
