- La Conferenza sulla sicurezza di Monaco perde valore come luogo di dialogo tra nemici (Stimson Center, Barbara Slavin). Big international gatherings like the Munich Security Conference used to be venues for dialogue among adversaries, but that is not the case this year. Munich Security Conference Loses Value as a Venue for Dialogue Among Foes
- Climate action: come i Paesi in via di sviluppo possono guidare il successo globale e la prosperità locale (Brookings, Amar Bhattacharya, Homi Kharas, John W. McArthur). A new narrative needs to capture the interwoven nature of the world’s climate and economic development challenges, anchored in the evolving and diverse perspectives of developing countries themselves. Keys to climate action: How developing countries could drive global success and local prosperity
- Climate action nei Paesi più vulnerabili (Brookings, Sara Jane Ahmed). In this working paper, Ahmed focuses on the V20, a group of finance ministers representing 58 climate-vulnerable countries, home to 1.4 billion people. Climate action in the most vulnerable countries
- La NATO e l’iniziativa Alliance Persistent Surveillance from Space (Defense News, Vivienne Machi). More than half of NATO’s member states, along with its two current invitees, have pledged to take part in a novel initiative that would streamline the alliance’s process to gather data from space. NATO members line up to join new space-based data collection effort
- L’utilizzo delle tecnologie dirompenti da parte di Stati nazionali e attori informatici maligni – la risposta degli Stati Uniti (Chatham House). Lisa Monaco, US deputy attorney general, discusses how autocratic governments and malign cyber actors use disruptive technologies to project power and engage in illicit activity. Disruptive technologies by nation states and malign cyber actors – the US response
- USA. I repubblicani spingono Biden a chiedere più aiuti militari per Taiwan nel prossimo bilancio (Defense News,
- Il rinnovato interesse di Washington per l’Australia settentrionale (The Strategist, John Coyne). For the third time in less than a century, the US government has rapidly awakened to Australia’s strategic importance. On this occasion, it’s focused on the significance of Australia’s northern strategic geography. While on previous occasions Australia traded sovereignty for protection, this time it must play a far more assertive role. Northern Australia is critical to preventing and deterring future conflict in the Indo-Pacific. It is also essential to ensuring Australia’s economic and social prosperity. Realising the benefits of Washington’s renewed interest in northern Australia
- Gli aiuti pubblici e umanitari francesi non sono più graditi in Mali (IRIS, Fatou Elise Ba). La montée d’un sentiment anti-français en Afrique de l’Ouest et au Sahel, dans un contexte de guerre en Ukraine, inquiète les autorités françaises. L’échec de la démocratisation et la posture interventionniste de la France dans la région attise un climat d’hostilité. Au Mali, la fin de l’aide publique et humanitaire marque la rupture Paris-Bamako dans un contexte sécuritaire encore incertain. L’aide publique et humanitaire de la France n’est plus la bienvenue au Mali
- Cosa significa il cambiamento climatico per il Corno d’Africa (CFR). Michelle Gavin, the Ralph Bunche senior fellow for Africa policy studies at the Council, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the impact of climate change in the Horn of Africa. What Climate Change Means for the Horn of Africa, With Michelle Gavin
- Sfide e opportunità del cambiamento climatico: Il caso dell’Africa orientale (Brookings, Njuguna Ndung’u, Théophile T. Azomahou). East Africa has several fast-growing economies that will see a sustained increase in energy demand over time. In this working paper, Ndung’u and Azomahou describe the extensive costs of climate change already borne across the region, hurting economic growth, food security, health, and human capital. Challenges and opportunities of climate change: The case of East Africa
- Crescita economica urbana in Africa: il caso di studio della contea di Nairobi, Kenya (Brookings, James Gachanja, John Karanja, Jacob Nato, Rose Ngugi, Humphrey Njogu, Brian Nyaware, Charity Mbaka, Shadrack Mwatu, Melap Sitati). For most countries, urbanization has resulted in substantial productivity gains created by the agglomeration economies that cities generate. However, while Africa has the highest rate of urbanization in the world, the region’s cities are not realizing the full potential and benefits of agglomeration. Sub-Saharan Africa is failing to reap the economic benefits of urbanization observed in other regions. Urban economic growth in Africa: A case study of Nairobi City County, Kenya
- Realizzare la transizione verde in Nigeria (Brookings, Belinda Archibong and Philip Osafo-Kwaako). How should countries with many people living in absolute poverty combat climate change and energy transition while addressing poverty, creating jobs, and making progress on other sustainable development goals? This working paper focuses on Nigeria, highlighting the challenges and opportunities of implementing its green transition objectives. Delivering Nigeria’s green transition
- Afghanistan. Le crescenti restrizioni dei Talebani nei confronti della società civile e delle organizzazioni umanitarie (CSIS, Marti Flacks , Lauren Burke , and Nicolas Jude Larnerd). The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 has had dire consequences for the Afghan people. Between 2001 and 2021, women and girls made tremendous gains in access to education, democratic participation, and healthcare. Now, they are again subjected to “gender apartheid”: women are barred from most employment, banned from attending school between grades 7 and 12, and are unable to move freely in public without a chaperone and a head-to-toe covering. On December 20, 2022, the Taliban issued a ban on female students attending university in Afghanistan, discharging female students from Afghan universities and threatening the educational future of Afghanistan’s 19.5 million children. Two days later, they issued a ban on women working for international humanitarian organizations – The Taliban’s Increasing Restrictions on Civil Society and Aid Organizations
- Gestire il cambiamento climatico: una strategia per l’India (Brookings, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Utkarsh Patel). In this working paper, Ahluwalia and Patel describe how India could make progress towards meeting its climate change mitigation commitments which involve achieving net zero emissions by 2070. Managing climate change: A strategy for India
- La Corea del Sud e l’IPEF: obiettivi e implicazioni (IFRI, Jaewoo Choo). As a key manufacturer of high-end technology components critical to the sustainability of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, South Korea is essential in any effort to rebuild a resilient global supply chain but also to the promotion of a clean economy. South Korea can thus contribute to two of the pillars of IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework), specially to pillars II and III (supply-chain resilience and a clean economy). South Korea and IPEF: Rationale, Objectives and the Implications for Partners and Neighbors
- L’accordo Vietnam-Indonesia sulla ZEE sostiene l’UNCLOS (East Asia Forum, Bich Tran). Vietnam and Indonesia agreed to delimit their respective Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) on 22 December 2022 after 12 years of negotiations. The agreement provides hope for the strengthening of the region’s commitment to international maritime norms and principles encapsulated in the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The Vietnam-Indonesia EEZ agreement upholds UNCLOS
- A settembre ricorreranno i 50 anni di legami diplomatici formali tra Indonesia e Corea del Sud (The Interpreter, Alexander M. Hynd, Max Broad). This September will mark 50 years of formal diplomatic ties between Indonesia and South Korea. Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already kicked off celebrations, hosting an event in Jakarta in January. In a pre-recorded address, Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi outlined a “sea of opportunities” available to the two nations, including collaboration on peace and security, tourism, green energy and new trade opportunities unleashed by a recently implemented free trade agreement. Indonesia’s own subs conundrum
- Garantire una transizione climatica inclusiva e accessibile in Indonesia (Brookings, M. Chatib Basri, Teuku Riefky). How should a climate-vulnerable coastal country heavily dependent on coal transition to a sustainable development path? In this working paper, Basri and Riefky discuss the climate transition in Indonesia. Basri and Riefky first assess Indonesia’s economic and environmental situation, noting that Indonesia is one of the countries most affected by climate change, facing issues ranging from disrupted life in its myriad coastal communities to food insecurity. Ensuring inclusive, affordable, and smooth climate transition in Indonesia
- Geopolitica nella regione del Mar Baltico (SWP, Göran Swistek, Michael Paul). The “Zeitenwende” in the context of critical maritime infrastructure, escalation threats and the German willingness to lead. Geopolitics in the Baltic Sea Region
- L’Europa a un anno dalla guerra (CSIS, Max Bergmann, Ilke Toygür, Otto Svendsen). Nearly a year after Russia invaded Ukraine, Europe remains a continent at war. Historians will likely see 2022 as a pivotal year akin to 1989 and 2001—years that marked the end of an era and the beginning of a new historical phase. Europe’s response to the war has changed the continent. A Continent Forged in Crisis: Assessing Europe One Year into the War
- Mosca continua gli sforzi per penetrare nella diaspora circassa (The Jamestown Foundation, Paul Globe). Throughout its history, no country’s government has devoted more attention to its émigrés and diaspora populations than that of Russia. Nor has any other country taken more steps to try to disorder, penetrate and control them. The reason for this is simple: émigrés and diasporas from Russia have regularly played outsized roles in the country’s history, often serving as the only base from which its peoples can offer their dissent from the regimes in power. Moscow Continues Efforts to Penetrate Circassian Diaspora
- Le forze armate russe devono affrontare gravi sfide demografiche (The Jamestown Foundation, Pavel Luzin). In December 2022, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced its ambitious plan for increasing the size of the Russian Armed Forces to 1.5 million personnel by the end of 2026. To this, the number of contracted soldiers within the Russian Armed Forces has to be increased significantly as well: to 521,000 by the end of 2023 and 695,000 by the end of 2026, adjusted from the previous plan of increasing this number from 405,000 in 2020 to 500,000 by 2027. Besides this, the conscription system will also be adjusted, with the age range for conscription being changed from 18–27 years old (at the moment, Russian men are not conscripted once they reach age 27) to 21–30 years old (Rg.ru, March 25, 2020; Mil.ru, December 21, 2022). Russian Armed Forces Faces Severe Demographic Challenges
- La Russia e il reclutamento dei lavoratori migranti dall’Asia Centrale per la guerra (The Jamestown Foundation, Umida Hashimova). Russia is nearing the first anniversary of its re-invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and supplying sufficient manpower for the war effort remains a key factor in determining the war’s outcome. For several weeks, Ukrainian officials have been warning of Russia’s impending new offensive and waves of mobilization, which seem to be driving Moscow’s increased recruitment of Central Asian labor migrants through aggressive means and a blatant disregard for the law (Euromaidan Press, January 13; The Kyiv Independent, February 6; see EDM, February 15). Russia Continues to Target Central Asian Migrants for War Effort
- La Russia aumenterà la presenza nel Mare di Barents e nell’Oceano Atlantico, secondo un rapporto dell’intelligence norvegese (Defense News, Maxim Starchak). Russia this year will likely step up its presence in the Barents Sea and the Atlantic Ocean while lengthening its submarine deployments, according to a new Norwegian intelligence report. The Norwegian Intelligence Service released its annual report on Feb. 13, in which it noted that Russia is increasingly turning to its Northern Fleet to provide regional deterrence. Russia to lengthen submarine patrols, says Norwegian intel report
- Gli attacchi di phishing russi hanno invaso l’Ucraina e sono triplicati contro le nazioni della NATO nel 2022 (Breaking Defense, Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.). Cyber attacks on Ukraine surged in early 2022, but Russian hackers haven’t sustained that intensity, says a new report from Google’s Mandiant researchers. Russian phishing attacks flooded Ukraine, tripled against NATO nations in 2022: Report
- L’Estonia esorta gli alleati della NATO ad aumentare la spesa per la difesa verso il 2,5 per cento (Breaking Defense, Tim Martin). An increase from the current NATO target of 2 percent GDP is expected to be approved by alliance members at the Heads of State Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, due to be held in July 2023. Estonia urges NATO allies to increase defense spending ‘closer’ to 2.5 percent
- Russia-Ucraina. Evoluzione della guerra, 16 febbraio 2023 (ISW, Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, George Barros, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick Kagan). Russian forces conducted another missile strike on infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine on February 16. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 16, 2023
- La nuova architettura di sicurezza della Cina per il Medio Oriente (Atlantic Council, Tuvia Gering). This report addresses two widely held beliefs about the nature of China’s engagement in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that ought to be revisited in light of notable developments. First, while it is widely assumed that Beijing’s interests in the region are limited to energy security and economic ties, this report will show how cooperation has expanded in recent years across the board. Indeed, China has been fortifying its strategic ties and expanding its cooperation by heavily investing in local Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, as well as the infrastructure and technologies of the future. In doing so, it seeks to further integrate each nation’s development strategy with its own. Full throttle in neutral: China’s new security architecture for the Middle East
- Il terremoto in Turchia e i rifugiati siriani (Brookings, Kemal Kirişci). The massive earthquakes that struck Turkey on February 6 have again upended the lives of Syrian refugees, which after 12 years of living in Turkey are no closer to finding a durable solution to their displacement. For some time, the refugees have faced local resentment and an economy beset by inflation and crisis. Now, half of Turkey’s 3.5 million Syrian refugees are living in a region with destroyed buildings, hospitals, roads, airports, and factories, not to mention the trauma brought on by tens of thousands of lost lives, leaving them more vulnerable than ever. After the earthquake: Enabling refugee self-reliance and host community resilience in Turkey
- La “soluzione dei due Stati” e i palestinesi arabi: partizione o politicidio? (INSS, Joel Fishman). The world still believes that the “Two-State Solution” is the way to resolve the Israel-Palestine Conflict. But when the Arab Palestinians invoke this idea, they are holding something back. The “Two-State Solution” and the Arab Palestinians: Partition or Politicide?
- L’azienda israeliana di difesa Rafael apre il primo ufficio negli Emirati Arabi Uniti (Breaking Defense, Lee Ferran). In a growing closeness once unthinkable for the historical rivals, Israel and some Gulf nations, especially the UAE, have made significant strides in defense cooperation ever since the Abraham Accords were signed in 2020. Israeli defense firm Rafael opens first office in United Arab Emirates
- Quattro soldati iracheni uccisi in un raid contro sospetti combattenti dell’IS (The Defense Post). Four Iraqi soldiers were killed Thursday during a counter-terrorism operation north of Baghdad, security forces said, as the majority-Shiite country marks a key religious rite. Four Iraqi Soldiers Killed in Raid on Suspected IS Fighters
- Iran. Evoluzione della crisi, 16 febbraio 2023 (ISW, Zachary Coles, Annika Ganzeveld, Nicholas Carl, and Frederick W. Kagan). Iran and its proxies may be preparing for a major effort with military elements in northern Syria. Iran Update, February 16, 2023
Geostrategic magazine – 17 febbraio 2023
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