COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks
Afghanistan and Pakistan
(Bill Roggio – Foundation for Defense of Democracies) The Afghan Taliban and the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan maintain a “close” relationship, the United Nations Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team reported. The Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan (Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan or TTP) “continues to operate at significant scale in Afghanistan and to conduct terrorist operations into Pakistan from there” with the support of the Afghan Taliban, according to the Monitoring Team. Additionally, the TTP receives support from Al Qaeda, which the Afghan Taliban also backs. The Monitoring Team detailed the TTP’s training and operations in Afghanistan in its latest 1267 report on Afghanistan on July 10. “[The] Afghan Taliban have proved unable or unwilling to manage the threat posed by Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan,” the report noted. “Member States described this as too big a challenge for the Afghan Taliban to manage, even if they wanted to.”
AUKUS
(Sang Hun Seok – RUSI) AUKUS announced in April 2024 that consultations to engage with additional partners for Pillar 2 will begin this year. Although AUKUS initially started as a technological partnership, its potential to affect the future US alliance structure in the Indo-Pacific makes Pillar 2 expansion more of a geopolitical than a technological or technical issue. While it is true that such an expansion may further complicate some unresolved technological or bureaucratic problems, the geopolitical impact of Pillar 2 expansion needs to be more fully reflected in the discussions to ensure that the Pillar 2 partnership serves the unity of allies and partners, which is essential for maintaining a free and rules-based Indo-Pacific.
(John Blaxland – Lowy The Interpreter) Cockburn Sound, a calm waterway tucked behind an island near Fremantle in Western Australia, is about to become much better known thanks to the trilateral technical agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, known as AUKUS.
A second suitable piece of real estate | Lowy Institute
Azerbaijan
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) In the last two weeks, Azerbaijan’s ties to China and Iran have warmed significantly, with Baku and Beijing declaring a strategic partnership and Baku and Tehran announcing the reopening of an Azerbaijani embassy in Iran. In the South Caucasus, these accords will affect the development of both east-west and north-south transit routes, raising the importance of Azerbaijan at Armenia’s expense, as well as shifting the balance of power in the region. More broadly, by bringing Baku into a closer alliance with the anti-Western group of countries Moscow has promoted, these moves strengthen Russia and undercut the West’s position in the Caucasus and beyond.
Azerbaijan Expands Ties With China and Iran, Benefiting Moscow and Hurting West – Jamestown
Belarus
(Dmitry Bolkunets – The Jamestown Foundation) This month marks 30 years since Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka came to power. In the coming months, a new presidential campaign will begin, leaving many questioning whether he will run again due to his age and overall health. Possible regime change and democratic reform in Belarus pose a threat to Russia. Providing for the controlled replacement of Lukashenka is not a priority for the Kremlin today as it was a few years ago before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the 2020 Belarusian presidential elections. The opposition has minimal ability to influence internal processes from abroad, thus overcoming the political crisis to preserve Belarus’s independence likely requires both the opposition and the West to reevaluate their approach to unseating Lukashenka.
Lukashenka’s Hold on Power in Belarus Unclear as Election Season Approaches – Jamestown
China – Southeast Asia
(John Lee – Fulcrum) The term ‘second China shock’ has been coined to describe China’s changing role in the global economy. China’s aggregation of global manufacturing capacity and progress up technological ladders appears increasingly not as a passing phase in transition to a consumption and services-led economy. Rather, it is a lasting phenomenon that is reshaping the world economy and politics. Few countries will be more impacted by this than those in ASEAN, whose economies are already closely entwined with China’s.
The ‘Second China Shock’ and its Implications for Southeast Asia | FULCRUM
Climate Action
(John Conger, Emil Havstrup, Laura Jasper, Lennaert Jonkers, Irina Patrahau, Sami Ramdani, Louise van Schaik, and Julia Tasse – IMCCS) With climate impacts accelerating and the energy transition underway, militaries are increasingly considering the carbon footprint of their operations, infrastructure, and supply chains. Today, though there are gaps in measuring, reporting, and reducing these emissions, many countries already have initiatives to reduce their carbon footprint and improve the efficiency of their militaries. This report analyzes the urgency of climate change for militaries and explores how military research and innovation might enable both emissions reduction and greater resilience of infrastructure and operations to climate impacts while improving the self-sufficiency of military units and facilities. While the report should be useful to militaries around the world, its recommendations focus on NATO member state militaries.
European Union
(Richard Youngs – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) The dominant, epoch-making European storyline is now clear: the rise of the far right threatens the EU’s future and democracy. This standard view is expressed in countless opinion pieces and political speeches and is now reshaping both national and EU-level politics. Even if the far right did not surge quite as dramatically as widely predicted in either the European Parliament or the French parliamentary elections, its growing popularity clearly represents a pressing challenge both at the EU level and in national politics.
Europe’s Democracy Catch-22: Is There a Way Out? – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(Nathaniel Arnold, Guillaume Claveres, Jan Frie – IMF blog) The European Union has a productivity problem. Its people produce nearly 30 percent less per hour worked than they would have, had real output per hour worked increased in line with that in the United States since 2000. A failure to sufficiently develop innovative startups into “superstar” firms is one of the reasons for the bloc’s poor productivity growth. Europe’s fragmented economy and financial system partly underly this problem. Without a more frictionless single market for goods, services, labor, and capital, it’s more expensive and difficult for successful startups to scale up.
Europe Can Better Support Venture Capital to Boost Growth and Productivity (imf.org)
France
(The Lord Ricketts GCMG GCVO – RUSI) France is stepping into uncharted territory as a deeply divided National Assembly embarks on negotiations to form a coalition government. This political instability will reduce President Macron’s influence on domestic policy and capacity to provide leadership in Europe and beyond.
France’s Political Uncertainties | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Global Governance
(Christian Troy, Riley Garrison – World Economic Forum) Billions of people already lack access to clean water, a situation exacerbated by climate change. With the technology already existing to provide clean water solutions, grassroots collaboration can help deploy them on the ground. The Global Shapers Community has helped empower local networks to implement such water-focused initiatives.
India
(Dipti Ravi Sharma – Centre for Land Warfare Studies) In the contemporary global power competition, the term hypersonic has emerged as a new buzzword. All military powers, even less technologically advanced states like Iran and North Korea, with tech giants like the US and Russia, are in a rush to attain mastery of hypersonic technology. Moreover, the employment of hypersonic missiles by Russia against Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has spurred international interest in this novel technology. Similarly, India joined the race and is deeply interested in developing and maturing indigenous hypersonic technology.
Tracking The Advancement of India’s Hypersonic Ambitions – Center For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS)
India – Myanmar – China
(Brig Digvijay Singh, SM – Centre for Land Warfare Studies) In order to emerge as a new world power, China is establishing its control in the Indian Ocean Region and Myanmar owing to its geo-strategic location. India and Myanmar share open land and sea borders as a result of which any disturbance in this relation will have clearcut impact on other countries. The long-standing Western sanctions on Myanmar has swayed it towards China which has greatly exploited it by investing humongous amount of money. To counter Chinese influence on the ‘Gateway to the East’, India too has invested in Myanmar in sync with its ‘Act East Policy’, however it still needs to do much more to counter the Chinese influence.
India-Myanmar-China Conundrum: A Marriage of Convenience – Center For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS)
India – Tibet
(Centre for Land Warfare Studies) For years, India has not challenged the narrative promoted by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) legitimising the occupation of Tibet, under the guise that it was an intrinsic part of China for some 700 years. However, there is a wealth of literature that provides historical evidence of the close linkages between India and China that completely erode this claim. This paper provides some of that evidence against this claim, and some recommendations for a more muscular policy on Tibet at a time when China is increasingly interfering in Arunachal Pradesh, Eastern Ladakh.
Indonesia
(Astrid Meilasari-Sugiana, Gunardi Endro, Siwage Dharma Negara – Fulcrum) Indonesia’s Corruption Eradication Commission or KPK (Komisi Pemberantasan Korupsi) is facing a serious challenge after its chief, Firli Bahuri, who is also a police general, was charged with extortion; he had allegedly demanded money from former agriculture minister Syahrul Yasin Limpo. The latter stood indicted for corruption in the procurement of goods and services within the Ministry of Agriculture and for the gifts and gratifications he received from inside and outside the Ministry.
Corruption Eradication in Indonesia: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back | FULCRUM
(Felix K. Chang – Foreign Policy Research Institute) In February 2024, Indonesia elected Prabowo Subianto as its next president. While he does not take office until October, speculation over whether and how Indonesia’s foreign policy might change is already swirling. Certainly, there have been indications that Prabowo may chart a course that is less in line with the West than that of his predecessor, Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. Indeed, the People’s Republic of China was Prabowo’s first overseas destination after his electoral victory. But even before his election, there had been other indications, such as his off-the-cuff proposal for a peace plan for the Russian-Ukrainian War that would have left most of occupied Ukraine in Russian hands and his particularly harsh criticism of the European Union over its ban on Indonesian palm oil. Both cases stood in contrast to his warm embrace of China and its investments in Indonesia’s strategic nickel mining industry.
Koreas
(Yong Suk Lee – Foreign Policy Research Institute) Long-time Korea observers Robert Carlin and Sieg Hecker claimed in an online article on January 11 this year that Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war. Carlin and Hecker argue that Kim’s (tactical) decision for war would “only come after he concluded [that] all other options had been exhausted, and that the previous strategy shaping North Korea policy since 1990 had irrevocably failed.” Just a few days later, Kim Jong Un abandoned reunification as a national aspiration in a speech and declared that South Korea is a “primary foe and principal enemy,” further fueling regional and international concerns about a possible conflict on the peninsula.
North and South Korea: Let Seoul Hit Back – Foreign Policy Research Institute (fpri.org)
Malaysia
(Tuan Khairy Jamaluddin – Fulcrum) The recently concluded by-election for the semi-rural Sungai Bakap state seat in Penang was seen as an opportunity for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s unity coalition of coalitions to demonstrate that it can finally gain electoral support from heartland Malay voters. After a successful by-election defence two months ago and one and a half years in power, the Pakatan Harapan (PH)-Barisan Nasional (BN) alliance has found a steady governing cadence with an increasingly cosy working relationship between the former foes.
Sungai Bakap: A Wake Up Call to Buck Up | FULCRUM
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Andie Parry, Alexandra Braverman, Siddhant Kishore, Kathryn Tyson, Katherine Wells, Johanna Moore, and Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War) Iran: Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is articulating a foreign policy that is a continuation of the policies of his hardline predecessor even as Pezeshkian attempts to present himself to the West as a “reformist.” – Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has not officially confirmed whether it killed Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif. Israeli journalists reported that the IDF assesses that the likelihood Deif survived the July 13 strike is “extremely slim,” however – Israel: Israeli police and Shin Bet arrested three Israeli citizens accused of working for Iranian intelligence – Yemen: The Houthis claimed three attacks on July 16 targeting civilian tankers in the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea on July 15.
Iran Update, July 16, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) The European Union (EU) on July 15 imposed sanctions against five Israelis and three organizations in the West Bank under the EU Global Human Rights Sanctions Regime. “The listed individuals and entities are responsible for serious and systematic human rights abuses against Palestinians in the West Bank,” the EU stated. The designees include “extremist settlers” Ben-Zion Gopstein and Isaschar Manne, as well as Tsav 9, an activist organization that the EU said had “regularly blocked humanitarian aid trucks” en route to the Gaza Strip. All three are also sanctioned in the United States. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich claimed the EU sanctions crossed “a red line” and were an “inappropriate and unacceptable step between friendships.”
EU Sanctions West Bank Settlers (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) An alleged Israeli airstrike on a highway linking Syria to Lebanon on July 15 killed Muhammad Baraa al-Katerji, a close business associate of Syrian regime leader Bashar al-Assad. Katerji was involved in smuggling arms and drugs, including transferring hundreds of millions of dollars to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah, and other members of the Iran-led Axis of Resistance, the Israeli outlet Kan News reported. The U.S. Department of the Treasury sanctioned Katerji in 2018 for facilitating “fuel trade between the [Syrian] regime and ISIS, including providing oil products to ISIS-controlled territory.” Additionally, Treasury said Katerji assisted in “transported weapons and ammunition under the pretext of importing and exporting food.”
Syrian Businessman Sanctioned by U.S. Over ISIS Links Killed in Alleged Israeli Airstrike (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) German police arrested a Lebanese man who was attempting to acquire components for drones for use in Hezbollah attacks against Israel, the Associated Press reported on July 15. The man — named in the media only as “Fadel Z.”, in line with German privacy rules — is a resident of Salzgitter in the German state of Lower Saxony and is alleged to have joined Hezbollah in 2016. He is understood to have recently begun acquiring components for drones that “were supposed to be exported to Lebanon and used in terrorist attacks on Israel,” prosecutors said. Germany banned Hezbollah in 2020, carrying out raids on mosques and Islamic centers linked to the Iranian-backed terrorist organization. The arrest comes eight months after German police arrested four suspected Hamas terrorists in an alleged plot to attack Jewish sites in the country.
German Police Arrest Hezbollah Operative Who Attempted to Acquire Deadly Drone Components (fdd.org)
Moldova
(Laurențiu Pleșca – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Moldova’s presidential elections and the referendum for EU accession could constitute a make-or-break moment for consolidating democracy in the country. Action must be taken now to secure election integrity and undercut Russia’s ability to foment violence and instability.
NATO
(HCSS) Strategic analyst Davis Ellison contributed to the latest volume of the Georgetown Security Studies Review, with a paper titled “The Role of Conventional Counterforce in NATO Strategy: Historical Precedents and Present Opportunities“. Multiple NATO states have acquired long-range, highly precise conventional missiles and have discussed using these to target Russia’s nuclear weapons, risking possible nuclear escalation. How has conventional counterforce strategy shaped NATO’s history, and would such a strategy be viable today?
The Role of Conventional Counterforce in NATO Strategy | Georgetown Security Studies Review – HCSS
Netherlands
(Menso Hartgers – International Centre for Counter-Terrorism) On 9 July 2024, the first court hearing of a Dutch citizen who attempted to illegally acquire firearms and his arms dealer began. The suspect is part of the so-called Common Law Netherlands Earth (in Dutch Common Law Nederland Earth), a sovereign citizen group that rejects the democratic rule of law in the Netherlands, believing that they are not subject to government authority. Instead, they argue to be bound only by their interpretation of natural law and selective historical legal principles. The Public Prosecutor asserts that the group attempted to illegally acquire firearms to instigate a revolution. This case is indicative of a possible trend of sovereign citizens and anti-government extremists who not only espouse anti-democratic ideas but are also attempting to seize the means to realise their ideations. In a March 2024 report, ICCT already encountered online incitements for violence by Common Law Netherlands Earth, which advocated for “civil arrest” to “fight back” against government and law enforcement. This rhetoric is clearly a call to arms against the democratic rule of law. The ongoing trial evidences that the group’s adherents are heeding these calls, quite literally arming themselves. This short analysis aims to further shed light on the group, reflecting on developments of sovereign citizen movements abroad, and outlining possible challenges ahead.
Nigeria
(Adejoké Babington-Ashaye, Tanya Mehra, Matthew Odu Una – International Centre for Counter-Terrorism) Some terrorist groups commit a range of sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) crimes, such as rape, sexual slavery, enforced marriages and human trafficking. For such groups SGBV crimes can serve as a tool to advance strategic objectives, as a tactic to instil fear among the civilian population, and as a method to support financing and recruitment. Not only has the Islamic State in Syria and the Levant (ISIL)/Da’esh committed such crimes on a large scale, the Taliban are also targeting and persecuting women and children and more recently, and there is credible information that al-Shabaab uses various forms of sexual violence as its modus operandi to subjugate the civilian population within its control. Since 2011, Boko Haram has continued to abduct women and girls in northern Nigeria, subjecting them to various forms of sexual violence, including rape, forced marriage and forced pregnancies. In March 2024, 50 women were kidnapped in Borno, a state in Nigeria where both Boko Haram and the Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP) are active.
(Chatham House) There is a deeply entrenched view both within and outside of Nigeria that corruption represents an intrinsic feature of Nigerian society. In reality, however, the issue of corruption is more complex and driven by a range of social and behavioural factors. It is these underlying factors sustaining corruption in Nigeria that the Chatham House Africa Programme’s Social Norms and Accountable Governance (SNAG) research project seeks to diagnose and address – posing the central question: ‘why do people do what they do?’
Pacific
(Adam Lockyer, Yves-Heng Lim, Courtney J. Fung – Lowy The Interpreter) There are early signs that a potentially significant change is underway in how Indo-Pacific leaders perceive, describe, and understand the nature of China’s acts in the region. Some Indo-Pacific leaders have started to use the term ICAD – an acronym for illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive – to describe actions that would have formerly been called grey zone incidents. In the post-Cold War period, the concept of the grey zone rose in popularity among security scholars and practitioners to describe assorted coercive foreign policy activities that fell between traditional notions of peace and war. Today, however, there is a growing recognition that the term no longer adequately captures the problematic nature of actions by the People’s Republic of China directed against some Indo-Pacific nations.
Moving beyond the grey zone: The case for ICAD | Lowy Institute
(Blake Johnson, Fane Fakafanua and Sione Vikilani – ASPI The Strategist) On 13 July, the Australian government announced a new Indo-Pacific Broadcasting Strategy designed to increase Pacific access to Australian content and foster engagement across the region, boosting capacity and capability through a variety of training and exchanges. Most of this training will rightly be led by media organisations for media organisations.
Russia
(Valery Dzutsati – The Jamestown Foundation) An estimated 120,000 Russians have died in the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine. The rate of losses is increasing over time, boding discontent among Russians as they continue to be used as cannon fodder. Ethnically non-Russian regions have borne the brunt of the losses compared to city centers like Moscow and St. Petersburg, likely due to the higher risk of protest in major cities from ethnic Russians and the Russian elite. Despite the significant material bonuses to persuade Russians to join the military, especially in the poorer regions, the Russian army seems to be experiencing a lack of new recruits to replace its many casualties.
Russian Casualties in Ukraine Continue to Rise – Jamestown
(Dara Massicot – RAND Corporation) In this report, the author presents an evaluation of the effects of Russia’s full-scale 2022 invasion of Ukraine on Russian military manpower and the potential future effects on recruiting and retention. The analysis has identified several efforts that Russia’s government is pursuing to stabilize wartime recruiting and retention and to mitigate emerging problems when the war ends. However, the heavy casualties, poor force employment, and flawed unit leadership that the soldiers are experiencing will undermine these efforts. This report presents a survey of the severe losses of Russian manpower during the first 18 months in Ukraine, an evaluation of Moscow’s wartime recruiting and retention strategies during this period, and the near-term implications for Russia’s military manpower moving forward.
Russian Military Wartime Personnel Recruiting and Retention 2022–2023 | RAND
(Maxim Starchak – Carnegie Russia Eurasia) For many decades, international security has depended on dialogue between Moscow and Washington on the topic of nuclear arms control. In recent years, however, this dialogue has all but ground to a complete halt, and the use of nuclear blackmail has spiraled. In Russia, there have been calls for nuclear strikes on Europe and for a “demonstrative nuclear explosion.” In May, Russia held tactical nuclear drills in response to the West’s so-called “direct support for terrorist actions against Russia.” Russian officials have even threatened to use strategic nuclear weapons against the West.
Russia – China
(Vita Spivak – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) In mid-April 2024, the United States and the United Kingdom jointly announced a ban on imports of Russian aluminum, copper, and nickel. These three metals are critical for producing a wide range of goods from beverage cans to semiconductors and electric vehicles (EV). Isolated by the ban, Russian metals producers are likely to respond by exporting more to China—meaning China will continue transitioning from primary competitor to principal client.
Russia – European Union – Asia
(Angela Stent – Brookings) As NATO celebrated its 75th anniversary in Washington, it faced a Russia that continues its brutal aggression against Ukraine, is waging hybrid warfare against Europe, is working hard to turn the non-Western world against the West, and is now developing a new Asia strategy.
Russia’s disruptive actions show that European and Asian security cannot be decoupled | Brookings
Russia’s War in Ukraine
(Riley Bailey, Nicole Wolkov, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, and George Barros – Institute for the Study of War) Ukrainian drone strikes deep within Russia continue to pressure Russia’s air defense umbrella and force the Russian military command to prioritize allocating limited air defense assets to cover what it deems to be high-value targets – Ukrainian forces continue targeting Russian air defense systems in occupied Ukraine and in Russia’s border areas to set conditions to field F-16 fighter jets following their anticipated Summer-Fall 2024 arrival to Ukraine – The Russian 235th Garrison Military Court released former 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) Major General Ivan Popov from pre-detention on July 15 center and placed him under house arrest until October 11 – Armenian police detained another Russian citizen in Armenia, likely at the request of Russian authorities, amid deteriorating Armenian-Russian political and security relations – An investigation by Russian opposition outlet The Bell found that approximately 650,000 people left Russia following the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and have not returned – Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Avdiivka – The Russian government is continuing to improve Russia’s bureaucratic mobilization and conscription systems.
Sahel
(Charles A. Ray – Foreign Policy Research Institute) The COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to the human toll and negative economic impact in sub-Saharan Africa, also contributed to a decline in democracy. According to a May 26, 2021, article from the Council on Foreign Relations, more Africans were living under fully or partially authoritarian states than at most points in the previous two decades. Citizen discontent with leaders’ attempts to remain in power through circumvention of the electoral process has led to political instability, demonstrations, and violence even in relatively democratic countries like Kenya and South Africa. While the average level of democracy across the continent remains relatively stable in 2024, the continual incidents of military takeovers and conflicts in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Cameroon, pose challenges to consolidating democracy. Despite continuing progress in countries like Gambia and Zambia, and with nine African countries in the top fifty in the world in levels of democratic participation, the continental averages in representation and rule of law have declined over the past five years.
Prospects Dimming for Democracy in the Sahel – Foreign Policy Research Institute (fpri.org)
Saudi Arabia
(World Bank blogs) Saudi Arabia took a big leap forward in transforming its pension system with the recent announcement of comprehensive reforms, designed with support from the World Bank, aimed at enhancing income protection during old-age, but also promoting gender equality. Aging populations, caused by increasing life expectancy and falling fertility rates, combined with the changing nature of work and the erosion of informal and traditional family support systems, have created considerable challenges for pension systems worldwide. Many are facing fiscal sustainability pressures and adequacy concerns, including in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Pension reform is always difficult due to the political economy challenges, which is why this comprehensive pension reform in Saudi Arabia is such a breakthrough. It truly sets a new benchmark for the MENA region, addressing critical issues such as retirement age, maternity leave, and social insurance coverage.
Breakthrough pension reform in Saudi Arabia A model for the MENA region (worldbank.org)
Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(Danish Yousuf – Centre for Land Warfare Studies) The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (hereafter SCO) Heads of State Council (HSC) meeting was convened on July 3 and 4, 2024, in Astana, Kazakhstan. The summit approved 25 documents, including the Astana Declaration, the Initiative on World Unity for Just Peace, Harmony and Development and addressing illicit drug trafficking, resulting in a five-year “Anti-Drug Strategy”. Key leaders present at the summit included Russian President Vladimir Putin, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and the Presidents of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Hosting the event, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev welcomed the delegates, while Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Astana for a state visit and bilateral meetings ahead of the SCO summit. India was represented by its External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar.
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: An Alliance with Limits – Center For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS)
(Paul Weisko – Institute for National Security Studies) The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held its 24th Summit on July 3-4 in Astana. The leaders of SCO member states attended the summit, including the presidents from China, Russia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan, and Pakistan’s Prime Minister. India’s President Modi did not attend the summit. Still, he sent his Minister of External Affairs instead, signaling a cautious approach due to Russia’s close ties with China and questions about what India could gain from the SCO. The placeholder for the Iranian presidency also attended the summit. The presence of Turkey’s and Azerbaijan’s leaders as dialogue partners and the leader of the new SCO member, Belarus, further highlighted the summit’s significance.
Syria
(Haid Haid – Chatham House) The Syrian regime held its parliamentary elections on 15 July, marking the fourth such event since the start of the country’s civil war in 2011. Despite the ongoing war, massive displacement, unresolved armed conflict, a deteriorating economy and a divided nation, President Bashar al-Assad remains unwavering in his rejection of any political transition.
Timor Leste
(Hal Hill, Brett Inder – Fulcrum) After 24 years of oppressive, sometimes brutal, Indonesian rule, Timor Leste achieved formal independence on 20 May 2002 (it conducted a decisive vote for independence on 30 August 1999). As the country approaches its first quarter century as an independent state, there is much to admire and celebrate. But the developmental challenges are also substantial.
Timor Leste’s First Quarter Century: Opportunities and Challenges | FULCRUM
UK
(Juliana Suess – RUSI) Space is ubiquitous in modern defence: space capabilities are essential in areas such as gathering intelligence, enabling navigation and precision firepower via GPS, and communicating beyond the line of sight. Furthermore, the utility of space increasingly renders capabilities a target for hostile action. Attacks on space-enabled communications services, as seen during the war in Ukraine, are just one example of how counter-space capabilities are already being used. In the future, adversaries may not restrict themselves to non-kinetic means, and space itself might turn into a battlefield. UK defence views space as both a domain and an enabler, although the balance is skewed towards enablement.
UK – Indo Pacific
(Euan Graham – ASPI The Strategist) John Healey, the secretary of state for defence in Britain’s new Labour government, could be forgiven for not putting the country’s geostrategic presence in the Indo-Pacific at the top of his to-do list. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the capability shortfalls that the conflict has indirectly highlighted in Britain’s armed forces will be absorbing most of his attention, as well as Labour’s wider interest in repairing relations with the European Union.
Keep Britain east of Suez, Mr Healey | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
USA
(Michael Pettis – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) The decision Americans must make about industrial policy is whether policies that drive the nature and direction of the U.S. economy should be designed at home or abroad by its trade partners. In a hyperglobalized world, trade and industrial policies in one country are transmitted through trade imbalances into their obverse among that country’s trade partners.
Which Country Should Design U.S. Industrial Policy? – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(James M. Lindsay – Council on Foreign Relations) After teasing both North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum and Florida Senator Marco Rubio, former President Donald Trump opted yesterday for Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate. In selecting Vance, Trump opted not to expand his political appeal, as he did back in 2016. Then he picked Mike Pence, a favorite of Christian evangelicals who might have doubted a New-York-real-estate-developer-turned-presidential candidate. This time around, Trump doubled down on his Make America Great MAGA brand. Vance, who turns forty in just over two weeks and only a few years ago was a proud “Never Trumper,” is one of Trump’s fiercest defenders.
Meet J.D. Vance, Republican Vice-Presidential Candidate | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
(Elaine Kamarck – Brookings) In choosing Senator J.D. Vance from Ohio to be his running mate, Donald Trump chose someone who would reinforce his hard-right agenda. Vance came to national prominence as the author of the best-selling book “Hillbilly Elegy,” a book about the difficulty of growing up in poverty. In 2016, he had scathing things to say about Trump, but by 2022, when he ran for the Senate, he got solidly behind Trump, got his endorsement, and won the seat.
Trump chose Vance to reinforce his message | Brookings
USA – China
(Ali Wyne, Ryan Hass – Brookings) It has become almost axiomatic to pronounce—and would initially seem difficult to dispute—that a U.S. “consensus” on China policy has formed. The Trump administration concluded, and the Biden administration agrees, that China seeks to overtake the United States as the world’s preeminent power—a conclusion that offers a rare point of foreign policy continuity between the two administrations. In addition, Republican and Democratic members of Congress alike agree that Beijing is Washington’s foremost geopolitical competitor. And especially over the past decade, the United States has taken a series of steps to offset China’s military modernization, limit its ability to access high-end technological components that could fuel that push, and bolster Washington’s own alliances and partnerships in Europe and Asia.
Questioning the presumption of a US “consensus” on China policy | Brookings
Venezuela
(Shannon K. O’Neil and Julia Huesa – Council on Foreign Relations) On July 28, up to twenty-one million voters will pick a president and vice president in Venezuela’s most open contest in more than a decade. The increasingly authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro is seeking a third six-year term against opposition frontrunner Edmundo González Urrutia and eight other candidates. Under his rule, the economy more than halved, the political space closed, and many Venezuelans voted with their feet. Nearly eight million people, or around a fifth of the population, have left the country since Maduro first took office in 2013 in one of the largest displacement crises in the world. The majority have stayed in Latin America and the Caribbean; an estimated nearly three million live in neighboring Colombia alone.
Will Maduro Hold on to Power in Venezuela’s 2024 Election? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Vietnam
(Nguyen Thanh Giang, Le Hong Hiep – Fulcrum) In a joint statement issued at the end of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Hanoi last month, a plan to bring the Russian language back to Vietnamese schools was announced. While some Soviet-trained academics in Vietnam welcomed the plan, others doubted its success. For example, Kim Van Chinh, a retired economist who was trained in the Soviet Union, expressed his fondness for Russian on Facebook, but also regretted that it is no longer considered a prestigious language “because of Russian politics and poor economy”.
Rise of Chinese Language in Vietnam Hinders Plans to Bring Back Russian | FULCRUM
Vietnam and Indonesia
(Yuko Arai – World Bank blogs) The importance of creating age-ready, universally accessible cities has become an important part of the World Bank’s mission. Inclusivity is increasingly being seen as a global public good, especially for those facing aging populations.
