From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
China
(Niva Yau – The Jamestown Foundation) Through television broadcasts overseas, like Jongugu Sapar in Kyrgyzstan, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) presents an image of ethnic harmony and economic development in Xinjiang, downplaying or omitting signs of colonialism, forced labor, or suppression of Turkic cultural identity. The PRC’s positive messaging about Xinjiang has been successful in Central Asia, where positive historical narratives about and some nostalgia for the Soviet Union influence perceptions of PRC actions. By tailoring content to resonate with local beliefs, the PRC successfully projects its foreign policy goals and strengthens its regional influence. For instance, anti-colonial rhetoric, while rife in PRC discourse in Africa, goes unmentioned in Central Asia. – PRC Positive Messaging Frames Successful Colonization in Xinjiang – Jamestown
(W.Y. Kwok – The Jamestown Foundation) In a departure from the long-term economic program announced at the Third Plenum in July, the Party leadership used an unusual politburo meeting in September to acknowledge “new situations and challenges” in the economy, unveiling its most significant stimulus package in recent years. Around the same time, the People’s Bank of China announced the strongest interest rate cut since 2021, along with a series of “combined moves” aimed at supporting the declining real estate market. While these measures had immediate positive effects on the stock market, concerns remain about the longevity of this boost. The changes followed the release of the State Council’s first-ever government debt management report, which revealed that total government debt stood at RMB 71 trillion ($9.9 trillion) as of the end of 2023. – Beijing’s Stimulus Package Comes Amid Growing Challenges – Jamestown
India – Armenia
(Archishman Goswami – Observer Research Foundation) Armenia is becoming one of India’s closest security partners in the Caucasus amid shifting dynamics in regional and global geopolitics. This brief makes a case for closer intelligence collaboration within the bilateral relationship. It describes current intelligence cooperation between the two countries, particularly in the context of Armenia’s efforts to establish itself as a technological powerhouse in the Caucasus; assesses India and Armenia’s mutual security challenges; and evaluates the two countries’ intelligence cooperation focused on transnational security challenges such as drug trafficking. – An India-Armenia Intelligence Partnership for the 2020s (orfonline.org)
India – USA – Indo Pacific
(Satu Limaye, Lei Nishiuwatoko – Observer Research Foundation) The Indo-Pacific region has become a crucial area of the India-United States (US) partnership. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the two countries have increased their alignment on the Indo-Pacific, with both sides giving greater priority to the region and acknowledging sharper shared concerns about China. The US and India are also increasing cooperation via the Quad and engaging in other platforms such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). As challenges in the Indo-Pacific heighten, it would do well for both India and the US to work in closer consultation and coordination in the region. – India-U.S. Convergence in the Indo-Pacific (orfonline.org)
Middle East
(Renwar Najm – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Since the inaugural election in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in 1992, politics has largely remained in the hands of the same ruling forces, with elections doing little to shake up the status quo. But this October could prove to be a pivotal moment—not because of any new challengers from outside, but because of the power struggle brewing within the Barzani family itself. The once-cohesive leadership may be splintering as two powerful figures, Masrour Barzani and Nechirvan Barzani, vie for dominance. As both seek to tighten their grip on the family’s legacy, the party’s future, and the fate of the Kurdistan Region, the cracks within may become impossible to ignore. – Breaking Point? How the Barzani Family Power Struggle Could Unfold After Kurdistan’s Election | The Washington Institute
(Michael Knights, Amir al-Kaabi, Hamdi Malik – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Militia Spotlight presents a regularly updated tracker with the best-known information about drone, rocket, and missile attacks against U.S. and allied targets, which have intensified since the Gaza war broke out. – Tracking Anti-U.S. and Anti-Israel Strikes From Iraq and Syria During the Gaza Crisis | The Washington Institute
(Jonathan Masters, Will Merrow – Council on Foreign Relations) Many foreign policy experts warn that if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, it would be broadly destabilizing for the Middle East and nearby regions. A first-order concern is that Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons would pose a major, perhaps existential threat to Israel, its longtime foe. Other foreign policy experts say Iran would be assuring its own demise if it were to launch a nuclear strike on Israel, a close U.S. defense partner and possessor of its own nuclear weapons arsenal, which is undeclared. Either way, there would be a dangerous potential for miscalculation that could result in a nuclear exchange, analysts say. – What Are Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Capabilities? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Pakistan – China
(Naad-e-Ali Sulehria – Middle East Institute) The strategic alliance between Pakistan and China, driven largely by opportunism and geostrategic interests, seems unshakable. However, the extent of its mutual benefit remains under scrutiny, especially for Islamabad, whose reliance on Beijing continues to deepen. Although China claims to base its foreign policy interactions on five key principles — respect for sovereignty, non-aggression, non-interference, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence — its dealings with Pakistan indicate an unequal power dynamic that primarily serves its own interests. This imbalance in the Pakistan-China strategic alliance has led to a situation in which Islamabad’s autonomy is increasingly curtailed, and its vulnerability to Beijing’s influence is becoming more apparent. – Pakistan’s deepening strategic reliance on China | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
Taiwan Strait
(Center for Strategic & International Studies) Crossroads of Commerce: How the Taiwan Strait Propels the Global Economy – Crossroads of Commerce: How the Taiwan Strait Propels the Global Economy (csis.org)
USA
(Barbara Norrander – Brookings – 14 September 2024) Election outcomes in Arizona often are determined by Phoenix and its suburbs (e.g., Maricopa County) where its 2.4 million voters comprise 59% of Arizona’s registered voters. How demographic groups in Arizona will vote for president mostly mirrors national trends, such as the influence of a gender gap and the impact of younger voters. If the initiative to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution mobilizes pro-choice voters, it could affect the outcome of the presidential, House, and Senate contests. – What do we need to know about the swing state of Arizona? (brookings.edu)
(Allison Minor, George Ingram – Brookings) The 2019 Global Fragility Act (GFA) represented an ambitious attempt to improve the U.S. approach to fragile and conflict-affected countries and prioritize conflict prevention. Five years later, the administration has taken some noteworthy steps to “do business differently” in a handful of GFA pilot countries. However, the administration and Congress must renew momentum around the initiative and recalibrate their efforts if they hope to realize the original ambitions of the legislation and the administration strategy that followed. A surge in violent conflicts globally and the reemergence of major power competition only underscore the importance of these ambitions. – Renewing momentum around the Global Fragility Act (brookings.edu)
USA – China
(Brookings) China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, so clearly it must be involved in any effort to minimize climate change. But relations between the United States and China have gotten much more challenging in the last few years. Samantha Gross speaks with Heidi Crebo-Rediker from the Council on Foreign Relations and Eyck Freymann of Stanford’s Hoover Institution about China’s views and actions on climate change and whether there is room for cooperation between the two countries. – China and climate change—cooperation or rivalry? (brookings.edu)
