Geostrategic magazine (15 July 2025)

From global think tanks

The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye

Today’s about: Algeria-US; Armenia; Gaza; Georgia-Iran; Haiti; Russia; Sudan; US; US-Russia-Ukraine; Yemen

Algeria – US

(Sabina Henneberg – Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Since gaining independence in 1962, Algeria has earned a reputation as a relatively closed country, with policies guided by self-sufficiency, noninterference, and nonalignment. Yet it has also long sought to demonstrate relevance on the world stage, such as after 9/11, when it served as a regional partner in the U.S.-led war on terror. Today, Algeria faces challenges including a migrant crisis that has strained the social fabric and the Western Sahara conflict next door—which is not on the leadership’s preferred trajectory. Washington has an interest in helping Algiers navigate these challenges and embrace greater openness, both to promote stability in North Africa and to advance U.S. interests like counterterrorism and economic competition with China. – Strategic U.S. Engagement with Algeria: A Pathway amid Shifting Global Dynamics | The Washington Institute

Armenia

(Albert Vidal Ribe – IISS) In the aftermath of its defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, Armenia has worked to reduce its reliance on Russia as a security partner. It has diversified its defence partnerships by forging new arms deals with countries including France and India to modernise the country’s military. – Armenia, Russia, France, India, defence procurement

Gaza

(UN News) The head of UN child rights agency UNICEF has called for Israel to review its rules of engagement in Gaza after seven children were killed while waiting for water at a distribution point. The incident occurred in central Gaza on Sunday, according to media reports, which said that four other people also lost their lives due to the Israeli airstrike. The Israeli military said it had been targeting a terrorist but a “technical error” saw the munition stray off course. – Gaza: UNICEF mourns seven children killed queuing for water | UN News

Georgia – Iran

(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) Georgia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Khvtisiashvili expressed solidarity with Iran following the Israeli airstrikes, sparking outrage from the Israeli Embassy and raising domestic accusations of Georgian Dream acting as a regional proxy for Tehran. Russia is intensifying efforts to pull Georgia into strategic regional frameworks, positioning Iran as a key partner, which aligns with Georgian Dream’s pivot away from the West. Iran’s connectivity and economic presence in Georgia has been rapidly growing under Georgian Dream, marked by a surge in Iranian companies, residents, and trade. – Georgian Authorities Establishing Dangerous Ties with Iran Against West – Jamestown

Haiti 

(UN News) Amid runaway gang violence and crumbling state authority, the Security Council on Monday unanimously extended the mandate of the UN’s political mission in Haiti until the end of the year, amid escalating gang violence, political paralysis and a deepening humanitarian crisis threatening the country’s collapse. By adopting resolution 2785, the Council renewed the authorization of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH), reaffirming support for a Haitian-led solution to the island nation’s overlapping crises. The decision comes as armed gangs maintain their grip on most of the capital, Port-au-Prince, with over 1.3 million people displaced and more than 4,000 killed in the first half of 2025 alone, according to UN figures. Conditions have deteriorated dramatically amid growing food insecurity and the erosion of public institutions. Of particular concern is the safety of women and girls, with a sharp rise in reports of sexual violence since the start of the year – including rape, gang rape, and sexual enslavement. – Security Council renews UN’s Haiti mission amid spiralling crises | UN News

Russia

(Mikhail Zygar – Atlantic Council) Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 challenged much of the common Western understanding of Russia. How can the world better understand Russia? What are the steps forward for Western policy? The Eurasia Center’s new “Russia Tomorrow” series seeks to reevaluate conceptions of Russia today and better prepare for its future tomorrow. – The next generation: Russia’s future rulers – Atlantic Council

Sudan

(UN News) Escalating violence, displacement and heavy rains are deepening the needs of civilians caught in the war in Sudan, the UN humanitarian affairs office, OCHA, said on Monday. Nearly 27 months have passed since fighting broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and a former ally, the paramilitary Rapid Security Forces (RSF), creating an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. The UN voiced grave alarm over escalating hostilities in El Fasher, the besieged capital of North Darfur state. – Sudan: Humanitarian needs deepen amid rising hostilities and heavy rains | UN News

US

(Mia Beams – Council on Foreign Relations) President Donald Trump kicked off his second term aiming to slash funding for clean energy projects. On his first day, he signed an executive order freezing Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funding, and shortly after, the Department of Energy (DOE) created a “hit list” of clean energy projects to roll back that were funded under the previous administration. Despite this targeting of the clean energy industry, nuclear energy projects continue to move forward. In March, the DOE disbursed $56.8 million to energy equipment supplier Holtec International to develop the first-ever U.S. commercial restart of a nuclear power plant in Palisades, Michigan. In April, it released another loan disbursement of $46.7 million. This disbursement continued an agreement that began under the Joe Biden administration. The Palisades reopening is one of multiple nuclear power plant projects taking place across the country. Nuclear energy has remained a consistent area of interest across several U.S. administrations because of its role in low-carbon energy generation, national security, and global competitiveness. However, it still raises significant concerns over safety and nuclear waste. While the Trump administration has signaled strong support for nuclear energy through recent executive actions and public statements, other developments—such as proposed budget cuts and changes to clean energy incentives—complicate the broader picture. – Despite Bipartisan Backing, Nuclear’s Future Is Uncertain Under Trump | Council on Foreign Relations

US – Russia – Ukraine

(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fake readiness to negotiate the end of Moscow’s war against Ukraine amid its relentless attacks on Ukraine appears to be coming to a breaking point as the United States continues its efforts to build a peace agreement. Continued North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) support for Ukraine’s defense capabilities indicates growing alignment among Western powers despite Putin’s attempts to exploit divisions in the West. Russia’s war effort is being undercut by severe economic degradation, unsustainable military costs, and instability, illustrated by mounting battlefield losses, a shrinking defense budget, and the death of Transport Minister Roman Starovoit following his dismissal. – Putin’s Game of War-Making and Bargaining Comes to End – Jamestown

(Atlantic Council) The tariff war is coming to Russia. US President Donald Trump threatened today to levy massive “secondary tariffs” on Russian goods if Russian President Vladimir Putin does not commit to a deal to end his war on Ukraine within fifty days. During a White House visit by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump also announced a plan for European NATO nations to buy billions of dollars’ worth of US weapons to send to Ukraine. Will this rapid shift in Trump’s approach to the conflict bring peace to Ukraine? And what impact might these new weapons or tariffs have on the war? – Will Trump’s pivot on Putin change the war? – Atlantic Council

Yemen

(UN News) The Security Council on Monday renewed the mandate of the UN mission in Yemen’s key port city of Hudaydah, as regional tensions spike and international concern mounts over recent Houthi rebel attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Adopted unanimously, the resolution extending the UN Mission to support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA) until 28 January 2026, underscores the Mission’s critical role in maintaining fragile stability amid signs of renewed military escalation and deepening humanitarian need. The resolution – 2786 (2025) – reaffirms the Council’s support for the 2018 Stockholm Agreement, including the ceasefire in the Houthi-controlled port city – and demilitarisation of its docks, where the majority of Yemen’s imports and vital aid shipments pass through. – Yemen: Security Council extends UN mission in crucial port city amid escalating Red Sea strife | UN News

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