From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Asia Pacific
(Asher Ellis – East Asia Forum) Calls for an ‘Asian NATO’ overlook regional complexities and risk heightening tensions. Enhanced intelligence sharing frameworks provide a pragmatic alternative for addressing security challenges in the Asia Pacific. By focusing on less sensitive domains like maritime surveillance and cyber threat intelligence, countries can build trust and capability without forcing confrontational choices. This approach respects diverse regional interests while promoting essential security cooperation. – Intelligence sharing as an alternative to ‘Asian NATO’ | East Asia Forum
Australia
(Malcolm Davis, Marcus Schultz – ASPI The Strategist) The Albanese government’s new strategy for the Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance (GWEO) enterprise adopts a crawl-walk-run approach to building a skilled industrial ecosystem able to co-design and produce advanced guided weapons with allies and partners within 10 years. This approach, revealed in a speech on 30 October, is sensible, since Australian capability is beginning from low base. But it also risks moving too slowly in a deteriorating strategic environment to produce the right type of weapons in large enough volumes to meet likely scenarios this decade. GWEO must succeed against the odds to deliver capability at the time it is needed most. This will be a tall order if events do not wait for the GWEO ecosystem to fully mature. – Australia’s guided weapons program needs to get moving | The Strategist
Australia – India
(Graeme Dobell – ASPI The Strategist) Australia’s new relationship with India has push-pull poles—the pull of the Indian diaspora in Australia and the push that China applies to the Indo-Pacific. The diaspora is the personal dimension that pulls India and Australia together. China is the geopolitical push that shapes the four-year old India-Australia comprehensive strategic relationship. – The push and pull of the India–Australia relationship | The Strategist
China
(Songshan (Sam) Huang – East Asia Forum) The introduction of China’s visa exemptions has helped bring in 17.254 million visitors in the first seven months of 2024. This surge in tourism is a boon for China’s slowing economy and can enhance the country’s diplomatic strategy. But overtourism risks straining local infrastructure and fuelling tensions with locals. To sustain growth, China must carefully manage the balance between economic benefits and social harmony, ensuring tourism remains a driver of prosperity and soft power without overwhelming local communities. – China slides open economic and diplomatic doors with visa-free travel | East Asia Forum
(Kalpit A Mankikar – Observer Research Foundation) The Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS), a security-focused think tank affiliated with Tsinghua University, has surveyed Chinese citizens’ worldview. It seeks to decipher what the outlook of the Chinese is towards the world at large—how they want the Communist Party of China (CPC) to tackle security issues; how other nations fare in the Chinese scheme of things; most importantly, how they view China’s relations with the United States, at a time when a new American president has been elected. The study finds that nearly 50 percent of those surveyed in the 18-44 age bracket are cynical about the security situation across the world. This is a substantial increase compared to the 2023 report where only 20 percent of the respondents in the same age group stated that the world was “less safe” and “unsafe.” In fact, nearly 60 percent of those surveyed have a pessimistic view of the next five years, incidentally when a new presidential term commences in Washington. The 2024 findings mirror the official line enunciated during this year’s plenary session, which sees the CPC elite discussing China’s future trajectory amidst regional conflicts that have been erupting at regular intervals, and as international issues becoming more severe. – Chinese public opinion may have bearing on Asian security
Climate Action
(Nathan Cogswell, Anderson Lee, Michael Doust, Max Jamieson, Rod Taylor, Beth Elliott, Ben Welle, Klara Nilsson, Edward Davey, Katie McCoshan, Gaia Larsen, Schuyler Null, Hayden Higgins – World Resources Institute) In the last few years, coalitions of countries, businesses, governments and other actors have announced increasingly ambitious commitments to address the climate crisis. These have included plans to dramatically ramp up renewables, phase down fossil fuels, green the financial sector, halt deforestation, reform food systems and agriculture, and more. A number of new pledges are expected to be unveiled at the current climate summit in Baku, such as those under the COP29 Presidency’s Action Agenda. But are parties actually following through on their promises? – Tracking Progress on Global Climate Commitments | World Resources Institute
COP29 – Africa
(Crisis Group) Nazanine Moshiri leads a roundtable discussion with researcher and journalist Peter Schwartzstein and Karabo Mokgonyana, renewable energy campaigner at Power Shift Africa, to talk about what’s at stake for Africa at the COP29 climate summit in Baku. They discuss how a heavy debt burden has limited climate action in many African countries and the case for bringing debt relief to the table at COP. They unpack how climate change can fuel drivers of conflict and why donor countries should prioritise climate financing in conflict-afflicted countries. They also discuss how African leaders can build a united front to raise issues like climate security and climate financing at COP29 and beyond. – What’s at Stake for Africa at COP29? | Crisis Group
Germany
(Marcus Colla – Lowy The Interpreter) Its inevitability did not make it any less shocking. Just after 8:30pm on Wednesday, after talks to pave a way forward for Germany’s long-unloved three-party governing coalition failed, came the news that the Social Democrat (SPD) Chancellor Olaf Scholz had sacked his finance minister, Christian Lindner of the Free Democratic Party (FDP). Lindner’s forced exit shattered Scholz’s brittle coalition, reducing it to minority government status and the Chancellor to that of lame duck. The moment triggered an extraordinarily dark round of political recrimination, name-calling and blame-gaming. Shortly after dumping Lindner, Scholz strode in front of the media and launched an astonishing tirade on his former colleague’s character (the attentions of not a few observers were aroused by the fact that Scholz’s speech was clearly pre-scripted). For the moment, no doubt, it must have felt cathartic – the embattled Scholz even received a standing ovation from his fellow SPD parliamentarians in a meeting that followed. But the ugliness of the collapse revealed a much more deeply wired pathology at the heart of Germany’s consensus-driven politics. It bodes ominously for the coming national elections, now due to take place early in the new year. – The claustrophobia of German politics | Lowy Institute
Global Instability
(The Hague Center for Strategic Studies) In May last year, HCSS launched The Socio-Political Instability Survey, inviting over 500 think tankers from around the world to give their views on the short term likelihood and geography of volatility globally using both multiple-choice and open questions. The results of the open-ended questions were gained through a process of quantitative and qualitative discourse analysis, with specified themes or coding categories determined by the authors. The fourth edition of the ‘Observer’ continues to monitor high levels of instability in Western Asia and Eastern Europe. Recent Israeli incursions into Lebanon have placed Lebanon at the top of the list of countries most at risk of socio-political instability, displacing Ukraine from the leading position for the first time in over a year. Russia’s alliances with unconventional partners such as North Korea and Iran, along with its hosting of the annual BRICS summit, have led experts to perceive Russia as the most influential country in the next six months. This edition also highlights that military factors have now surpassed economic ones as the primary drivers of instability, likely due to worsening security conditions in Western Asia and across Central, Eastern, and Western Africa. The survey further examines the potential outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the EU’s stance within the U.S.-China rivalry, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) most affected by geopolitical tensions. Finally, respondents reflect on instability within their own countries. – The Socio-Political Instability Observer: September 2024 – HCSS
Global South
(Swati Prabhu – Observer Research Foundation) The United Nations marked another year of South-South Cooperation Day in September even as the developing world reels under recurrent crises — from the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine to the crisis in Bangladesh along with disaster, displacement and extreme weather events the world over. Is there then any need for a South-South Cooperation? The rise of the Global South has gained traction recently. Countries like India, China, Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa have been building a definitive Southern narrative by sharing their best practices and technical knowledge with fellow developing partners. However, SSC as an institution appears to have lost steam in the current geopolitical matrix. China holds a special position in the international development landscape from the Southern bloc. But the rapid expansion of its Belt and Road Initiative has not only put developed countries on the back foot but also created debt traps for developing nations. China’s geopolitical arm-twisting has unnerved other Southern countries, particularly India. – Head South
G20 – SDGs
(Nilanjan Ghosh, Malancha Chakrabarty, Swati Prabhu – Observer Research Foundation) The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are the first truly global attempt to set universal development goals for all countries and transform the economic system. More than halfway through the timeline of achieving the SDGs, the COVID-19 pandemic and a series of subsequent crises have dealt a deathblow to the SDGs. A massive financing gap is the primary obstacle to the achievement of the global goals by 2030. This brief argues that the G20, with its mandate to facilitate international financial stability, along with promoting climate action and sustainable development, is the platform fit for accelerating the implementation of the SDGs. It recommends the creation of a G20 development bank to fund long-term sustainable development projects in developing countries. – The Case for a G20 Development Bank to Resurrect the SDGs
Indonesia – China
(Aristyo Rizka Darmawan – Lowy The Interpreter) Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto was in China last week, his second visit since winning the Indonesian election. What made this visit so surprising was the joint statement released after the meeting. Among the long list of agreements and cooperation initiatives, there was a paragraph agreeing to joint development in areas of the South China Sea where Beijing and Jakarta have overlapping claims. This is a significant statement which betrays Indonesia’s South China Sea policy over past decades. – Has Indonesia fallen into China’s nine-dash line trap? | Lowy Institute
Israel
(Azar Gat – INSS) After a year of war, it is time to reassess Israel’s fundamental strategic alternatives and the contrasting views that have figured prominently in the professional disputes, media opinions, and public discourse regarding the war, its trajectory, and continuation since its outbreak. – The Turnaround: The War and Its Strategic Disputes in a Year’s Perspective | INSS
Russia – Iran
(Yaron Gamburg, Arkady Mil-Man – INSS) Frequent discussions in recent weeks between senior Russian and Iranian officials indicate a tightening of strategic ties between the two countries. From Russia’s perspective, the war in Ukraine and the military confrontations involving Israel represent interconnected elements in military, economic, and diplomatic spheres. Thus, Russia’s reliance on Iranian arms supplies amid its prolonged war in Ukraine underscores its attentiveness to Iran’s military and strategic needs. At the same time, the extent of Russian support for Iran directly depends on the level of American involvement in Israel’s conflict with Iran and its proxies. – Russia Seeks Closer Cooperation with Iran | INSS
South Korea
(Abhishek Sharma, Torunika Roy – Observer Research Foundation) The East Asian region is experiencing a population crunch, threatening its economic and geostrategic competitiveness. Among the major economies of East Asia, South Korea has both the region and the world’s lowest fertility rate. In 2023, South Korea’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR, the average number of children a woman will have in her reproductive age) stood at 0.72, well below the replacement level of 2.1 required to maintain a healthy and stable population. This decline has severe implications for South Korea’s sustainable economic growth. However, the birth dip is also becoming a serious national security issue, affecting conscription and military preparedness. Therefore, amidst the intensifying security competition in Northeast Asia, it becomes important to understand the national security implications of this issue. – South Korea’s declining demographics: A national security issue
Taiwan
(Leo SF Lin – East Asia Forum) Taiwan’s civil defence system, administered by the National Police Agency under the Ministry of the Interior, has improved crisis responses through an expansion of civil defence measures and enhancement of emergency abilities, including sufficient air raid shelters and an increase in civil defence and police volunteers. Despite these advancements, the system is hampered by issues like low morale due to unclear mission descriptions, limited training for personnel, policy oversight and funding restraints leading to inefficient responses during crises. – Taiwan needs to strengthen its civil defence | East Asia Forum
Thailand
(Susannah Patton – Lowy The Interpreter) Over three decades of domestic political turbulence, Thailand has often been dismissed as inward-looking and for failing to live up to its potential leadership role within Southeast Asia. The country’s diplomatic influence has not been commensurate with its size or stature as one of ASEAN’s founding members. But even measured against this low standard, Bangkok’s diplomacy in 2024 appears to be at a new nadir. – Thai foreign policy in the twilight zone | Lowy Institute
USA
(Susan Thornton – East Asia Forum) The re-election of Donald Trump indicates a fundamental change in the United States’ relationship with the world, reflecting a growing lack of confidence in international institutions, and a weariness of global responsibilities, likely leading to significant damage to multilateral organisations. Trump’s characteristically transactional approach and aggressive tariff policies will spell trouble for Asia. The consequences of a second Trump presidency are likely to include increased difficulty in maintaining security cooperation, issues surrounding defence budget financing, economic impacts due to increased tariffs, and further disconnection between the US and Chinese economies. – Trump Act II spells the end of the American empire | East Asia Forum
(Luca Trenta – RUSI) World leaders’ responses to Trump’s return reflect an effort to flatter his self-image, yet differences from his previous administration are likely to make cooperation this time around much more challenging. – Working with Trump? Not so Fast | Royal United Services Institute
USA – Europe
(Mark Leonard – ASPI The Strategist) As European leaders wake up to the reality of Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House, they must take care to avoid two big traps: panic and denial. It won’t be easy, but the stakes are too high to fail. The reasons for panic are obvious. Trump may be unpredictable and mercurial, but there is little doubt that his political instincts and stated plans will shake the pillars of Europe’s security, economic and political order. On security, Europeans have every reason to fear that Trump’s proposed ‘peace plan’ for Ukraine will deprive that country of its territorial integrity and leave it demilitarised and permanently excluded from NATO. And NATO itself may well go dormant, with the United States radically reducing its participation and handing responsibility for the alliance’s military command and resources over to the Europeans. – As Trump returns, European countries’ first priority must be backing Ukraine | The Strategist
USA – Israel
(Leo Greenberg, Theodore Sasson, Rebecca Meller, Mora Deitch – INSS) More than a year of war between Israel and its regional enemies has put the US–Israel alliance under the spotlight. While the United States has provided Israel diplomatic support and more than $22 billion in military aid, the Biden administration and the Netanyahu-led government have repeatedly clashed on issues such as proportionality, humanitarian aid, and adherence to international law. Younger and liberal Americans have become more critical of Israel, and many Israelis have questioned the role of the United States as a limiting factor in Israel’s security decision-making. In mid-October, the United States indicated that future weapons shipments might be tied to Israel’s facilitation of aid transfers into Gaza. Against this backdrop, the INSS Data Analytics Center conducted polling to capture how Israelis currently perceive the US–Israel relationship. – The Divide Over America: What Israelis Think About the US–Israel Alliance | INSS
