COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Africa
(Raymond Gilpin, Daouda Sembene, and Landry Signé – Brookings) Improving African countries’ credit ratings has critical implications for borrowing costs and resource allocation. Government investments in accurate, consistent, and transparent data collection can help improve African countries’ credit ratings. Empowering local credit rating agencies can lead to more accurate and fairer ratings for African countries.
A fairer credit rating system for African countries could save billions | Brookings
Artemis Accords – Antarctica
(Doaa Abdel-Motaal – ASPI The Strategist) Can the recently concluded Artemis Accords that pave the way for exploring, extracting and using resources of the Moon, Mars and other stellar bodies become a blueprint for the mining of Antarctica? No, they can’t, even though questions of dividing rights on the Moon and in Antarctica look superficially similar.
Australia
(Chris Taylor – ASPI The Strategist) It will be a welcome step if the current Independent Intelligence Review (IIR) recommends further empowering the Office of National Intelligence (ONI) to lead capability development and, by extension, to achieve a more collective approach by the many Australian agencies working in the field. Terms of reference for the IIR encompass progress in the implementation of recommendations from previous reviews, including the establishment of the ONI and the creation of the national intelligence community (NIC). The review has been due to report to the government in mid-2024.
(David Uren – ASPI The Strategist) Treasury has stepped up enforcement of Australia’s foreign investment regime, however it continues to try to balance protecting national interests and encouraging investment inflows. Data suggests some foreign investors, noting national security provisions in the system, are choosing other destinations for their money or keeping it at home. Chinese investors remain notably unenthusiastic about Australia.
Australia toughens enforcement of foreign investment rules | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
China
(Yu Jie – Chatham House) While Europe and the United States are dealing with a string of crucial elections, the world’s second largest economy is about to convene a major conclave to decide its economic direction of travel – the third plenum of the 20th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) central committee. Boring and unfashionable as it might sound, China watchers and global investors will closely follow this event: previous third plenums have offered a clear signpost on China’s economic growth strategy for the following decade.
China – Australia
(Joe Keary – ASPI The Strategist) China and Australia agreed last month to set up a new maritime affairs dialogue, but this is unlikely to lead to a reduction in the frequency of unsafe behaviour by the Chinese armed forces. Australia already has a series of dialogues with the Chinese military. But following a resumption in activity post-COVID, China’s military has been less willing to engage in dialogue with Western countries. China has increasingly used coercive actions to further its strategic objectives, including by challenging Australia’s regional military presence that’s aimed at upholding the rules-based order.
France
(Brookings) After the far-right National Rally’s dominant victory in the European Parliament elections in France a month ago, President Emmanuel Macron called snap elections for the National Assembly to be held in two rounds on June 30 and July 7. In the Q&A below, Ted Reinert asks Brookings Visiting Fellow Tara Varma for her thoughts on the results.
How France united, once more, to defeat the far right | Brookings
India – Myanmar
(Anubhav S Goswami – Lowy The Interpreter) The reappointment of Subramanyam Jaishankar as the External Affairs Minister of India in Narendra Modi’s third term as Prime Minister was widely expected. However, the inclusion of Pabitra Margherita as a junior minister for the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) came as a surprise. Margherita’s appointment was likely intended to send a signal about the priority placed on India’s Act East Policy – the aims of which are being stymied by the continued fighting in Myanmar.
India’s “Act East” ambition must navigate Myanmar | Lowy Institute
NATO
(Jane Hardy – Lowy The Interpreter) A family photo of deep significance was taken in Washington on 10 July. Australia and the three other NATO Indo-Pacific partners – the IP4 – were not in that photo but sat in the room for the third year in a row. Up on the dais, NATO leaders exuded reassurance to all countries counting themselves in on this remarkable 75-year-old project.
NATO’s collective power – and Australia’s role | Lowy Institute
(Simon Smith – Chatham House) Ukraine had a good NATO summit this time round. That may seem a strange judgement, after leaders in Washington again delivered an equivocal statement on exactly when Ukraine will start formal proceedings to join the alliance.
(Chatham House) NATO’s Washington summit takes place amid growing uncertainty about US leadership, and sustained Russian missile attacks on Ukraine’s cities.
(Atlantic Council) There’s no going back. At the NATO Summit in Washington this week, heads of state and government from the Alliance’s thirty-two allies pledged to support Ukraine on an “irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership.” However, the allies left open when exactly that membership would come, instead noting simply that they “will be in a position to extend an invitation . . . when Allies agree and conditions are met.” Below, Atlantic Council experts are in a position now to take stock of what this pledge means, what Ukraine did get at the summit (including announcements about F-16 fighter jets and air defense systems), and what to expect next.
Experts react: What the NATO Summit did (and did not) deliver for Ukraine – Atlantic Council
Non-Proliferation
(Joseph S. Nye – ASPI The Strategist) Avril Haines, the US director of national intelligence, warned in March that ‘Russia’s need for support in the context of Ukraine has forced it to grant some long-sought concessions to China, North Korea and Iran with the potential to undermine, among other things, long-held non-proliferation norms.’
The non-proliferation problem | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Pakistan
(Crisis Group) Crisis Group’s South Asia director Samina Ahmed speaks about the fallout from Pakistan’s February elections, former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s enduring popularity, a wave of violence in Pakistan’s border regions and Islamabad’s frustration with the Taliban authorities in Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s Political Standoff and Surging Militant Violence | Crisis Group
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
(Xiaoli Guo – Lowy The Interpreter) The annual meetings of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) – the political, economic, security and defence organisation established by China and Russia in 2001 – have long attracted international attention. This year’s summit on 3-4 July, however, took on a new gravity, set against the backdrop of the Russia–Ukraine war, escalating tensions between Russia and the West, enduring strains in China–US relations, and the dynamics surrounding the US elections.
The global evolution of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation | Lowy Institute
UK
(Chris Aylett, Ruth Townend – Chatham House) The UK has staked a claim to international climate leadership since the closing decades of the 20th century, when human-induced global warming first became a subject of multilateral negotiations.
USA – Japan
(Christopher Johnstone, Nicholas Szechenyi, and Leah Klaas – Council on Foreign Relations) In the last few years, Japan has taken historic steps to strengthen its defense posture and in turn the U.S.-Japan alliance, which has entered a period of unprecedented integration.
The Evolution of the U.S.-Japan Security Partnership (csis.org)
USA – Mexico
(Will Freeman, Steven Holmes, and Sabine Baumgartner – Council on Foreign Relations) Migrants and displaced people from across the world are arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border in droves. More than half come from six Latin American countries, where worsening violence, poverty, and other factors are pushing them to leave.
Why Six Countries Account for Most Migrants at the U.S.-Mexico Border (cfr.org)
USA – Saudi Arabia
(Andrew Leber, Kevin Huggard – Brookings) A proposed U.S. defense pact with Saudi Arabia—possibly joined to a Saudi-Israeli agreement to normalize those countries’ relations—has become a centerpiece of the Biden administration’s Middle East policy. This deal would reportedly see the United States provide Saudi Arabia with security guarantees and support for a civilian nuclear program.
