Daily from global think tanks
COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
ASEAN
(FULCRUM) Marco Kamiya, Carlos López-Gómez and Mateus Labrunie emphasise the need for ASEAN countries to strengthen their technology absorption capacity, standards systems, and innovation ecosystems. Southeast Asia and Three “Invisible” Preconditions in the New Era of Industrial Policies | FULCRUM
Climate Action, Energy Transition, and Sustainable Development
(John W. McArthur, Zia Khan – Brookings) It is a truism in the business world that vision without execution is a hallucination, and execution without vision is futile. The same principle applies to global policy: ambitions without solutions are just hopes, while solutions without ambition lead to stagnation. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2030 are a case in point. These 17 objectives and 169 underlying targets were unanimously adopted by all United Nations member states in 2015. They constitute an ambitious agenda to address global challenges like poverty, health, gender equality, labor, education, and climate change. Rebooting the Sustainable Development Goals | Brookings
(Fred Pearce – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Southeast Australia has been getting hotter and drier. Droughts have lengthened, and temperatures regularly soar above 95 degrees F (35 degrees C). Bush fires abound. But somehow, its woodlands keep growing. One of the more extreme and volatile ecosystems on the planet is defying meteorology and becoming greener. Desertification was supposed to be the ‘greatest environmental challenge of our time.’ Why are experts now worried about greening? – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (thebulletin.org)
Emerging Technologies
(Alex He – CIGI) Without its own version of OpenAI, and lagging in all three key elements for fundamental generative AI development (computational power, quality data and advanced algorithms), China has turned its attention to the vertical model — that is, to AI applications in specific industries such as finance, health care, electric vehicles and driverless cars. China remains well behind in this arena, even as the technological gap narrows. In Developing AI, China Takes the Industrial Route – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)
(Romi Sigsworth – ISS Africa) Artificial intelligence offers innovative solutions to the expensive and time-consuming business of policing environmental crimes. AI can turn the tide on organised environmental crime in Africa | ISS Africa
European Union
(Ester Sabatino – IISS) The planned appointment of a defence commissioner within the European Commission could prove the catalyst for further reform and better coordination, but good intentions in this area have all too often failed to deliver the desired outcomes. European Union defence ambitions: a reality cheque (iiss.org)
Global Governance
(Jakkie Cilliers – ISS Africa) Instead of reinforcing borders, African and Western governments should handle unprecedented migration levels by negotiating skilled-worker agreements. Large-scale future migration will reshape global demographics | ISS Africa
Malaysia
(Tricia Yeoh – FULCRUM) Malaysia is enjoying strong inflows of foreign direct investment. To up its game, it needs to channel such flows to less-developed states. Malaysia’s States: Open for Business, Yet Not Always Transparent | FULCRUM
Middle East
(Brian Katulis, Khaled Elgindy, Alex Vatanka, Gerald M. Feierstein, Eyal Lurie-Pardes, and Shanthie Mariet D’Souza – Middle East Institute) Monday Briefing: US policy navigates tug-of-war between widening conflict and a cease-fire in the Middle East | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
(Andrew G. Clemmensen – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Among the many urgent “day after” issues that have yet to be adequately addressed in discussions of Gaza are explosive remnants of war (ERW), a catchall term for “dud” munitions, emplaced mines, abandoned weapons caches, and other explosives left behind during a conflict. These remnants will pose major problems for reconstruction—according to a senior official with the UN Mine Action Service (UNMAS), it could take as long as fourteen years to fully clear Gaza’s rubble because of ERW. Explosive Remnants: Gaza’s Literal Ticking Bomb | The Washington Institute
(Salahuddin Hawa – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) With no prospects for a political solution to the Syrian crisis, the Turkish government’s insistence on maintaining its previous policies in northern Syria and its usurpation of the Syrian people’s decision-making warns of dire consequences for an already fragile relationship. Clashes in Northern Syria: The Triumph of Interests Over the Language of “Brotherhood”? | The Washington Institute
Nigeria
(Valeria Ogide – Centre for Democracy and Development) Nigeria remains in a state of insecurity, with issues prevalent across all its geopolitical zones. This situation has required a more active security presence to preserve law and order. Yet even these security agencies appear to have brought a new form of insecurity – overhanded officials taking their role to an extreme. These instances include abuse of authority, extreme prejudice and, where applicable, the absence of proper justice for victims at the hands of security and law enforcement agencies. The Insecurity Within: Some Nigerian Security Agencies Are Failing their Mandate (cddwestafrica.org)
Pakistan – Middle East – Afghanistan
(Syed Mohammad Ali – Middle East Institute) With the third anniversary of the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan approaching, the plight of ordinary Afghans is by no means over. Throughout its history, the strategic location of this landlocked country has proven to be more of a curse than a blessing. Afghanistan is vitally situated at the crossroads of Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East. Its location has spurred significant great power competition in the modern era, going back to the days of the 19th-century “great game” between Britain and Russia, and later between the Soviet Union and the United States in the 1980s. Afghanistan was then the site of the longest American-led foreign occupation after al-Qaeda used the country as a base from which to orchestrate the September 2001 attacks on the US. Closer to home, neighboring Muslim states have exerted a significant influence on developments in Afghanistan as well. It should be obvious why Afghanistan matters to Iran and Pakistan, for instance, given that both countries share long and porous borders with it, as well as transborder rivers, on which the lives and livelihoods of millions of people depend. Afghanistan has longstanding religio-cultural and economic relations with many other Middle Eastern countries as well, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Besides these evident affinities, Afghanistan became an arena for proxy contestations by regional powers, which have adopted rather divergent Afghan policies over the past several decades of foreign occupation and are doing so again now when the country is in the vicelike grip of a resurgent Taliban. Pakistan and the Middle East’s evolving approach to Afghanistan | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
Russia-Ukraine War – Africa
(Peter Fabricius – ISS Africa) Dangerous signs of a proxy Russia-Ukraine war on the continent could have grave implications for Africa. Is Russia’s war against Ukraine spilling over into Africa? | ISS Africa
Sudan
(Maram Mahdi – ISS Africa) After Sudan’s third civil war erupted in April 2023, concerns were expressed about the risks of a proliferation of peace processes, given the country’s geostrategic location. Straddling North, Central and the Horn of Africa with 650 km of Red Sea coastline, and endowed with natural resources, Sudan is the gateway to the Sahel for state and non-state actors alike. Sudanese are losing hope with each new peace initiative | ISS Africa
Taiwan
(David Sachs – Council on Foreign Relations) Taiwan’s six percent increase to its defense budget will add to concerns that the island is not doing enough to deter China and prepare for a conflict. Taiwan’s Latest Defense Budget Risks Falling Further Behind China | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
UK – European Union
(Luigi Scazzieri – Centre for European Reform) The UK wants to forge a ‘security pact’ with the EU. But too much ambition now risks failure. A gradual approach will be more successful. Towards a UK-EU Security Pact | Centre for European Reform (cer.eu)
Ukraine
(Jack Watling, Darya Dolzikova – RUSI) Russian missile strikes have been degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for months. Before the full-scale invasion, Ukraine could generate up to 32 gigawatts (GW) of power, with actual generation closer to 25 GW. Today, Ukraine struggles to produce nine. While rolling power cuts have been uncomfortable in the summer, the inability to heat homes could prove deadly this coming winter. But the situation is not irretrievable, and there is still time to avoid the most severe risks. Fighting for the Light: Protecting Ukraine’s Energy System | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
USA – Germany
(Alexander Graef, Tim Thies – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) On July 10, during the NATO summit in Washington, D.C., the US and German governments announced a plan to deploy US long-range missiles in Germany by 2026. The announcement, which caught many members of the German parliament off guard and sparked a public debate about its potential consequences, prompted criticism of the government’s lack of communication and concerns about escalation risks. In response, parliamentary state secretaries at the Federal Foreign Office felt compelled to send an explanatory letter to the parliamentary defense and foreign affairs committees to justify the decision. Any hope for a swift end of discussions, however, seems premature—and rightly so. Missiles on the move: Why US long-range missiles in Germany are just the tip of the iceberg – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (thebulletin.org)
Venezuela
(Will Freeman – Council on Foreign Relations) The Latin American left has a decision to make about Venezuela: Oppose Nicolás Maduro’s totalitarian bid to remain in power indefinitely or enable it. Efforts to constrain Maduro may not succeed. But giving in to him will destabilize neighboring countries—with consequences for the United States—undermine the left’s claims to respect democracy and possibly cost its leaders political support. In Venezuela, the Latin American Left Will Show Us What it Really Stands For | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
