From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Australia, China-Europe, Egypt, Europe, Europe-India, Germany, Greenland, India-Arctic, Indonesia, Iraq, Mercosur-Europe, Middle East, Nigeria, North Korea, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond), Sweden, Syria, US, US-Canada, US-Europe, US-France
Australia
(Amara Lee – The Interpreter) The world is currently experiencing the highest level of armed conflict since the Second World War. As part of this, humanitarian aid worker deaths are soaring, with 2024 marking the deadliest year on record. From Gaza to Sudan, Myanmar, and Ukraine, attacks on aid workers continue with impunity, including the deliberate targeting of those who provided lifesaving aid to 116 million people last year. This surge in attacks and deaths is occurring within a wider context of decreasing compliance and respect for international humanitarian law. – Protecting frontline humanitarians: Australia’s role as a middle power | Lowy Institute
(Bronte Munro – The Strategist) After decades of gradual decline, Australia’s manufacturing capability is no longer mission-fit to meet national security needs. Any whole-of-nation effort to arrest this trend needs to start by making the industrial operating environment more conducive to manufacturing. The sector needs both knowledge-based capital, for innovation, and financial capital. Given the scale of investment required, the government must cooperate with the private sector and incentivise the sector’s independent efforts. A recent report I wrote for the United States Study Centre discusses how the Australian government can better engage with the manufacturing sector and align the private capital needed to finance its revival. – Australia needs to manufacture change to ensure national security | The Strategist
(John Coyne, Liam Auliciems – The Strategist) Australia’s cyber capabilities have evolved rapidly, but they are still largely reactive, not preventative. Rather than responding to cyber incidents, Australian law enforcement agencies should focus on dismantling underlying criminal networks. On 11 December, Europol announced the takedown of 27 distributed platforms that offered denial of service (DDoS) for hire and the arrest of multiple administrators. Such a criminal operation allows individuals or groups to rent DDoS attack capabilities, which enable users to overwhelm targeted websites, networks or online services with excessive traffic, often without needing technical expertise. – Australia needs to prevent cybercrime, not just react to it | The Strategist
(David Andrews – The Strategist) The Australian government has prioritised enhancing Australia’s national resilience for many years now, whether against natural disasters, economic coercion or hostile armed forces. However, the public and media response to the presence of Chinese naval vessels in the Tasman Sea over the past two weeks suggests that more work must be done to strengthen the resilience of Australian society. Political leaders and senior officials have repeatedly stressed that ‘Australia faces the most complex and challenging strategic environment since the Second World War’, but recent commentary suggests that Australia as a society isn’t yet mentally adjusted to such circumstances. – Societal resilience is the best answer to Chinese warships | The Strategist
China – Europe
(Noah Barkin – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Welcome to Watching China in Europe, a monthly update from GMF’s Indo-Pacific Program. Now more than ever, the transatlantic partners need clarity and cohesion when it comes to China policy. In this monthly newsletter, Noah Barkin—a senior visiting fellow at GMF and senior advisor at Rhodium Group—provides his personal observations and analysis on the most pressing China-related developments and activities throughout Europe. – Watching China in Europe—March 2025 | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Egypt
(Shady ElGhazaly Harb – Journal of Democracy) Fourteen years ago, when the Jasmine Revolution forced Tunisia’s dictator, President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, to give up his 23-year grip on power and flee, many Egyptians wondered whether their country’s dictator would be next to fall. Not everyone thought he would. “Egypt is not Tunisia,” some Egyptian analysts declared. Less than a month later, however, hundreds of thousands of protesters gathered in Tahrir Square and deposed President Hosni Mubarak, who had ruled for 29 years. Since the flight of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and the collapse of his regime, observers in Egypt are once again wondering about the fate of their own country. Conditions seem to be ripe for change. But the question remains: Will Egypt follow Syria’s path? – Will Egypt Be the Next Syria? | Journal of Democracy
Europe
(Chatham House) The former Netherlands defence minister, Kajsa Ollongren, says that Donald Trump’s actions are raising doubts about the US commitment to NATO – in response, Europe must turn its plans to release an extra €800 billion for defence spending into swift action. – Kajsa Ollongren: ‘Europe’s mindset should now be “war economy” ’ | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(The Hague Centre for Security Studies) In an era of heightened geopolitical tensions, the importance of military preparedness and sustainment of any war effort is more pressing than ever. The Trump presidency has once more underscored the need for Europe to be able to fend for itself. Unfortunately, Europe is currently falling short in a number of critical capabilities if called upon to go alone.European NATO-members states strongly depend on US capabilities for their defence operations. Besides technological dependence, most NATO members in Europe lack sufficient preparation to sustain prolonged warfighting. These dependencies sharply contrast with the desire of the EU to pursue ‘strategic autonomy’. The strategic autonomy agenda stresses a higher level of self-sufficiency and a better diversification of economic relations. However, Europe is still a long way from achieving this policy goal. From upstream (raw materials) to downstream (equipment producers), the EU lacks an integrated defence industrial base to support the strategic autonomy of the continent. This position paper will give an overview of the most pressing topics in the defence industry sector and will provide recommendations for future policy agendas. – Position paper | Scaling Up the European Defence Industry – HCSS
Europe – India
(Lizza Bomassi, Calvin Nixon – European Union Institute for Security Studies) In late February, the EU sent its highest-level delegation to India – the EU’s full College of Commissioners, led by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The delegation addressed key areas for deepening ties – from trade and technology to security and defence – sending a clear message to New Delhi: India matters. Symbolically, the visit signalled that democracies can still unite around common goals. Choosing India for the College’s first visit outside Europe carries particular weight given today’s shifting geopolitical landscape. As Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its fourth year and with the transatlantic relationship in free fall, Europe is increasingly looking to the Indo-Pacific to buttress its crumbling alliance structure. India, after all, is the world’s largest democracy and a rising economic power. Despite their compatibilities, the relationship between Europe and India has been anything but straightforward. Nowhere is this more evident than with the EU-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Talks began in 2007 but some two decades on, the deal remains in limbo, stalled by differences over market access and regulatory standards. While the EU has scaled back its ambitions over time, India remains protective of its heavyweight industries, particularly agriculture and textiles. With renewed momentum to finalise a deal, a more integrated sector-based approach could offer a way forward. – Breaking the deadlock on the EU-India FTA | European Union Institute for Security Studies
Germany
(Linus Höller – Defense News) Germany’s economy should embrace the pivot from cars to defense equipment as a major growth driver, according to a proposal by the country’s leading defense industry group. The Federal Association of the German Security and Defense Industry (BDSV) pitched the idea last week while hailing the incoming government’s pledge to continue expanding the defense budget drastically. To overcome production bottlenecks, the argument goes, why not repurpose manufacturing capabilities of Germany’s famed, but ailing, automobile sector? – Defense companies jack up Germany’s auto industry to make weapons fast
Greenland
(Aka Hansen – Chatham House) Kalaallit Nunaat, more commonly known as Greenland, has always belonged to the Inuit. Its history, however, is often told by outsiders – Vikings, missionaries and colonial powers. For millennia before Viking explorer Erik the Red set foot on its shores in AD983, Greenland has been home to Inuit communities who, unlike the Norsemen, thrived in its vast and harsh landscape. Today, as Donald Trump pushes his proposal for the United States to assume control of Greenland from Denmark for reasons of ‘international and economic security’, the question of who this land belongs to is more pressing than ever. His remarks have rekindled decades-long debates in Greenland about decolonization and independence. – Postcard from Nuuk: Greenland is forging independence on its own terms | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
India – Arctic
(Observer Research Foundation) The Arctic region, with its vast reserves of natural gas, minerals, oil, and hydrocarbons, presents energy and economic opportunities for countries, including India. India’s Arctic Policy, released in 2022, signalled the country’s intent to expand its engagements in the region beyond its historical focus on scientific research and climate studies. While the policy acknowledges the region’s growing economic potential, however, it does not address geopolitical and strategic dimensions that are critical to safeguarding India’s long-term interests. This paper argues for the inclusion of a strategic geopolitical pillar within India’s Arctic policy to position the country as a key strategic partner in the region, leverage its opportunities, and counter emerging challenges. – Introducing the Arctic as a Strategic Geopolitical Pillar for India
Indonesia
(Gita Nasution – East Asia Forum) Traditional practices and economic pressures sit alongside disease control efforts in Indonesia’s Gunungkidul district, which has faced persistent anthrax outbreaks. Despite government interventions and awareness campaigns, the intersection of cultural values, livestock-dependent livelihoods and community traditions creates unique challenges for implementing preventative approaches, demanding more nuanced, culturally sensitive solutions. – Culture meets contagion in Indonesia’s cattle country | East Asia Forum
Iraq
(Benedetta Benzoni, Sundus Al-Ogaidi – The Hague Centre for Security Studies) As Iraq continues to deal with a chronic water crisis, experts both inside and outside the government are mobilising to find and design durable solutions. Iraq faces a severe shortage in quantity and quality of water: this is partly caused by external factors, such as climate change and upstream damming, but also by internal water management practices. The impacts of water scarcity hit every sector of society, and left unaddressed, they can create tensions between different governorates and different levels of government. This is especially true in the southern governorates, which are impacted by upstream water overuse and pollution. In recent years, tensions over water scarcity have flared into protests against both provincial and national authorities, as inhabitants demanded action and solutions. Addressing water-related tensions in southern Iraq can be a significant challenge, especially when it comes to addressing long-term systemic issues. However, critical improvements in water management can be made incrementally, without needing to influence external water-related factors or immediately engage in large-scale long-term structural changes. – Entry-points for Collaborative Water Governance in Southern Iraq – HCSS
Mercosur – Europe
(Eamon Drumm – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Preserving the Mercosur-EU free trade deal is critical for Europe’s economic security. National and EU leaders can harness rising concerns about the United States, Russia, and European defense to sway opponents, particularly in Poland. – Mercosur-EU Trade Off? | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Middle East
(Lina Khatib – Chatham House) A new order is emerging in the Middle East. For decades, Iran wielded influence across the region by cultivating a network of proxies that created instability in several Arab countries, from Lebanon to Yemen. Today, however, Iran’s regional status is drastically diminished. In contrast, Saudi Arabia is establishing itself as the most influential power in the Arab world. With Donald Trump’s administration back in Washington, Saudi Arabia and the United States can strengthen their partnership to neutralize the threat of destabilization by Iran and alter the balance of regional power for a generation. – How Saudi Arabia and the US might reset the Middle East | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Kabir Taneja – Observer Research Foundation) Arab leaders met in Cairo, Egypt, for an emergency meeting to come up with an alternative plan to the one promoted by United States President, Donald Trump, for the Gaza Strip’s reconstruction. Trump’s proposition of Egypt and Jordan taking in the Palestinian population of the Strip while it is turned into some kind of ‘riviera’ has, if nothing else, pushed Arab leaders to take notice and push back with their own alternative. The outcome from Cairo was close to what was expected, which was, much like Trump, a mere Arab-led band-aid to the Palestine issue and the war between Hamas and Israel. The future of Hamas in the Gaza Strip should be at the core of both a political future and the proverbial reconstruction effort. While the summit endorsed a US$53 billion plan to devise a new blueprint for Gaza’s rebuilding, it shied away from the more contentious political questions, including Hamas as the main political and military actor and the question of offerings towards Israel’s security dilemmas. The Arab proposal’s main aim was to create a buffer and present a united front against not just Trump’s plan against Egypt and Jordan but also to be seen not as bystanders around a growing narrative of forced displacement. Both the US and Israel have rejected the Arab proposal. – Gaza reconstruction opens an Arab-Trump faultline
Nigeria
(Leena Koni Hoffmann, Sara Seth – Chatham House) One theory relates to Nigeria’s ‘resource curse’. After the discovery of oil in the 1950s, there was an influx of money that the fledgling independent Nigerian state, built on the foundation of the extractive colonial state, had neither the institutional capacity nor the accountability mechanisms to manage. A rent-seeking economy emerged where the country’s elites sought to increase their own wealth without contributing any benefits to society, and corruption became widespread. It is very costly – between 2005 and 2014, for instance, some $182 billion was lost through illicit financial flows. Ordinary citizens, especially the poorest, suffer the most. – How to help Nigerians who want to act against corruption | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
North Korea
(Victor Cha, Ellen Kim – Center for Strategic & International Studies) On March 8, Kim Jong-un reportedly visited unidentified shipyards, where he was photographed with a large vessel North Korea called a “nuclear-powered strategic guided missile submarine.” If this report is true, it would mark the first time the country has unveiled a glimpse of its first nuclear-powered submarine. – North Korea Announces Nuclear-Powered Submarine Development
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) The Kremlin remains committed to its policy of confrontation with the West through weakening alliances and financial influence, despite Russia’s ongoing preparations for the potential end of its invasion of Ukraine. Moscow continues to stake its strategy on the expectation that BRICS countries will advance their de-dollarization agenda, which has faced significant backlash from U.S. President Donald Trump and hesitancy among other BRICS member states. Moscow supports divisions within the European Union, particularly aiming to leverage special ties with the “Danube Club,” comprising Hungary, Slovakia, and other EU nations with nationalist leanings, which could be potential EU advocates for Russia’s interests. – Moscow Seeks to Capitalize on Weakening Western Unity – Jamestown
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Recent U.S., European, and Ukrainian diplomatic efforts have gained momentum while the Kremlin insists on a ceasefire that aligns entirely with Russian interests. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to dismiss U.S. threats of imposing tighter financial sanctions and tariffs against Russia, while excitement within the Russian business elite over easing sanctions is now mixed with anxiety. European leaders have proposed alternative guarantees to NATO membership and enhancing regional defense to ensure security guarantees for Ukraine. Russia’s rigid opposition to such initiatives potentially weakens Moscow’s strategic positioning and further isolates it on the global stage. – Russia Refuses to Make Meaningful Step on Road to Peace – Jamestown
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) Bernard M. Baruch, the American financier and statesman, famously said in 1946, “Every man has the right to an opinion, but no man has a right to be wrong in his facts.”. Trump administration officials will better achieve a just and lasting end to Russia’s unprovoked, illegal, and murderous (all facts) war in Ukraine if they first agree on what motivated Russian President Vladimir Putin to act. It was a revanchist desire to regain a lost empire that begins but doesn’t end with Ukraine. For Putin, any agreement he signs must serve that purpose. Second, Trump administration officials need to be clear on what Putin is trying to achieve beyond that, beginning with the subjugation of other countries that once belonged to the Soviet bloc, including current members of NATO. Putin is determined, working in a “no limits” partnership with Beijing, to roll back US global influence and replace it with a world order of Russia and China’s own making. Putin has said so plainly, as has Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has remarked to the Russian leader, “Now there are changes that haven’t happened in a hundred years. When we are together, we drive these changes.” – Here’s a Ukraine peace plan Trump can use to deter—not appease—Putin – Atlantic Council
(The Hague Centre for Security Studies) War changes how economies function, both legal and illicit. Organised criminal networks are just as reactive to shifts in the international scene as any other business enterprise. The invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 created a cascade of regional instability leading to the displacement of millions of people, severe market disruptions, and heightened political repression in Russia specifically. All of these factors have created fertile ground for criminal activities to flourish, and illicit markets to expand. This poses the following question that is central in this section – to what extent does armed conflict facilitate these processes? – In the Shadows of War: The Impact of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine on Criminal Networks in Eastern Europe – HCSS
(Lisa Sharland – Stimson Center) The Trump administration suspended military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. These decisions have been widely interpreted as a means to force Ukraine to the negotiating table and followed the unprecedented, televised blowup in the White House between Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy and U.S. President Trump. This topped off weeks of shifting U.S. policy towards Moscow, demonstrated by the seismic turnabout in the UN General Assembly and Security Council on Ukraine last week. In opposition to past positions, the U.S. aligned with Russia by ignoring the ‘invasion’ of Ukraine and focusing solely on the so-called ‘path to peace’. – Is There a Role for Blue Helmets in Ukraine? • Stimson Center
Sweden
(Bill Sweetman – The Strategist) A growing consensus holds that the future of airpower, and of defense technology in general, involves the interplay of crewed and uncrewed vehicles. Such teaming means that more-numerous, less-costly, even expendable uncrewed vehicles can bring more weapons to the fight and force the adversary to deal with more targets. More-expensive and survivable crewed vehicles, meanwhile, can stand back, offering human supervision of the entire formation. But none of that will work without maintaining real-time common operational pictures. Everyone and everything in a team needs to know what the others know—about each other and about the enemy. One nation has longer experience in automatic sharing of data among aircraft. Thirty years ago, its interceptors could perform a radar-silent engagement by mind-melding the radars of two fighters tens of kilometres apart. Every pilot in a group of four aircraft knew the position, fuel state and remaining weapons of the other aircraft. For many years, this was one of the least reported stories in military aerospace (which was no accident). What that nation is doing now is highly relevant to the crewed-and-uncrewed future. It isn’t the United States, Russia, France, Israel or Britain. It’s Sweden. – More than ever, airpower will depend on sharing data. Watch Sweden | The Strategist
Syria
(Aaron Y. Zelin – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) When the Assad regime fell, many feared that sectarian retribution and mass ethnic cleansing would ensue. Until last week, such abuses were limited to small spurts of random vigilantism rather than large-scale, organized violence. On March 6, however, former regime insurgents ambushed the transitional government’s security forces in the western coastal town of Jableh, killing 30 of them (with many later found burned to death or in shallow mass graves). In response, government forces and affiliated elements killed 396 civilians and disarmed militants, according to figures released by the Syrian Network for Human Rights earlier today. SNHR also reported that Assad remnants killed 383 people during this round of fighting—172 soldiers and 211 civilians. In all, 779 were killed, with the total death more than doubling since March 8. SNHR believes it will rise further as new evidence is uncovered in the coming days. Most of the civilians killed by government forces were Alawites, though a few Christians have been confirmed dead as well. Those killed by former regime insurgents included Sunnis, Alawites, and Christians. Making matters worse, the information environment has been polluted with false accounts and misleading “evidence” of what actually happened, making it difficult to separate truth from fiction. The U.S. State Department’s March 9 response was factually sound; it also rightfully condemned the targeting of minorities and called for holding perpetrators to account. Yet even that statement elided a key detail about the sequence of events—namely, that regime remnants triggered the killing, which then led to massacres by government forces and affiliates. As more information is unearthed in the coming weeks—including by the investigating committee that the new government quickly formed—officials will gain a better understanding of the full picture. Even in the interim, however, it is important to contextualize what led to this situation, untangle the thicket of disinformation, and assess how the new authorities and the international community might best deal with the immediate aftermath. – Syria’s Transitional Honeymoon Is Over After Massacres and Disinformation | The Washington Institute
(Diana Rayes, Hind Kabawat – Atlantic Council) This International Women’s Day, groups worldwide issued a call to accelerate action for gender equality. As post-Assad Syria takes shape, the country has a rare opportunity to achieve major gains in gender equality. But time is limited: The stakeholders involved in mapping Syria’s future must harness this opportunity early, while the country is freshly emerging from the conflict. – Syria’s women face a new chapter. Here’s how to amplify their voices. – Atlantic Council
(Sary Mumayiz, Hamdi Malik – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) In a branding process trailing back to December, the Islamic Resistance Front in Syria-Possessors of Might (Uli al-Baas, or UAB) has emerged as the first major new muqawama (resistance) group in post-Assad Syria. But how real are they, and what can analysts infer from their propaganda and claimed activities so far? – Uli al-Baas (Part 1): A New Islamic Resistance Front in Syria? | The Washington Institute / Uli al-Baas (Part 2): Key Analytic Findings | The Washington Institute
US
(Harsh V. Pant, Vivek Mishra – Observer Research Foundation) President Donald Trump addressed a joint session of the US Congress on March 4 in the longest such session in modern American presidency. While it marked just six weeks of his second term, his address strongly indicated a vastly different policy contour in the works — doubling down on drastic changes both within the Beltway bureaucracy and outside in foreign policy by shaking America’s relations with the world. The fracture that the American polity today signifies was on display in the US Congress when most Democrats refused to either greet the president or stand in ovation to Trump’s speech highlights. Perhaps the most dramatic moment came when representative Al Green of Texas jeered at Trump that he has no mandate to cut Medicaid. – Trump doctrine taking shape
(Kimberley Botwright, Sean Doherty – World Economic Forum) US President Donald Trump has threatened and imposed sweeping new tariffs. The tariffs will target goods imported into the US. Many major US trading partners could be affected. – Trump tariffs: Visualising new US trade restrictions | World Economic Forum
(Sarah Arkin, Daniel Langenkamp, Lula Chen, Evan Cooper – Stimson Center) Over the past 25 years, successive presidential administrations have attempted to reform the U.S. Department of State. Although varying in scope and aim, each iteration sought to improve the Department’s ability to implement U.S. foreign policy. With the ascent of the Trump administration and talk of new reforms, this compendium presents the thoughts of four contributors who identify measures the new administration should prioritize in its State Department reform agenda. – State Department Reform Under the Second Trump Administration • Stimson Center
(Sarah Labowitz, Debbra Goh – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) The federal disaster recovery system has been one of the many targets for cuts by President Donald Trump’s administration. Multiple agencies that distribute the nation’s federal recovery funds and otherwise equip emergency managers and first responders are in the administration’s crosshairs—most notably, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). So far, administration officials have promised to “get rid of FEMA the way it exists today,” fired four senior FEMA leaders, and reduced staffing by 84 percent at the office that oversees long-term recovery funding for housing and community development. It has also slashed funding for wildland firefighters and announced major changes in staffing at the agency that oversees the weather forecasting that emergency responders rely on. – Get Rid of FEMA? Some States Will Hurt More Than Others. | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
US – Canada
(Atlantic Council) Mark his words. Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, will become the next Canadian prime minister this week, after he was elected leader of the Liberal Party by a landslide on Sunday. In his victory speech, Carney had hockey skate–sharp words for Canada’s southern neighbor. “America is not Canada. And Canada never, ever will be part of America in any way, shape, or form,” Carney said in response to US President Donald Trump, who has threatened tariffs and floated the idea of Canada becoming the fifty-first US state. He added, “We didn’t ask for this fight, but Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves.” So, what’s next for Carney, who takes office ahead of a required national election before October 20? And what’s next for the Washington-Ottawa relationship? – Experts react: What Mark Carney means for the US-Canada relationship – Atlantic Council
US – Europe
(Rudy Ruitenberg – Defense News) United States arms exports to Europe have more than tripled on aid for Ukraine and as European countries boosted weapons buying in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to an analysis by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Shipments of U.S. weapons to Europe rose 233% in the 2020-2024 time frame from the prior five-year period, according to a March 10 report by the Swedish think tank. For the first time in two decades, Europe accounted for the largest share of U.S. arms exports, SIPRI said. – US arms exports to Europe triple, boosted by Ukraine aid: SIPRI
US – France
(Valentina Lana, German Marshall Fund of the United States) US President Donald Trump’s temporary halt on investigations of international corruption has potentially significant consequences for US-French cooperation in this area. – “You Don’t Do It, So I Will”: Transatlantic Dialogues on the Fight Against Corruption | German Marshall Fund of the United States
