From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinkig of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Africa, China-Taiwan, India, Islamic State, Lebanon, Middle East, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, USA, USA-China, USA-Europe, USA-Iran, USA-Lobito Corridor, USA-Somaliland, Venezuela, Global Strategies
Africa
(Kathryn Tyson, Liam Karr – Institute for the Study of War) Islamic State in Somalia. ISS carried out its most complex attack in Somalia yet on December 31. The Islamic State Somalia Province (ISS) will likely continue to prioritize its strategic aim of acting as a logistic and administrative node in support of IS’s global network rather than refocusing on carrying out additional high-profile attacks in Somalia. ISS targeted a military base where Puntland defense forces had mobilized for a counter-ISS offensive and likely conducted the attack to disrupt the planned offensive. An influx of foreign fighters to Somalia over the last several years may have bolstered ISS’s attack capabilities and helped the group carry out the attack. ISS’s increasingly international composition increases the risk that ISS develops or promotes external attack plots. – Africa File, January 9, 2025: Islamic State Suicide Attack in Somalia; AUSSOM Dysfunction; M23 Captures District Capital in Eastern DRC | Institute for the Study of War
China – Taiwan
(Matthew Sperzel, Daniel Shats, Alison O’Neil, Karina Wugang, Frank Mattimoe, and Grant Morgan – Institute for the Study of War) The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) pushed through new requirements on the Constitutional Court that will make it impossible for the court to carry out constitutional review until it fills some of its vacant seats. The KMT rejected all 7 of the ruling DPP’s judicial nominees to fill the vacancies, however, which makes it impossible for Lai to block legislation as long as the seats are unfilled. – The KMT and TPP passed a budget allocation reform that would require Taiwan to reallocate more of its revenue to local governments. The bill would benefit the KMT by redirecting money to KMT constituencies and forcing President Lai to choose between cutting defense spending or cutting funding for other programs. – Taiwan’s Presidential Office conducted its first tabletop wargame simulating PRC warfare against Taiwan. ROC President William Lai presided over the second meeting of the Whole-of-Society Defense Resilience Committee on the same day in a move consistent with broader efforts to bolster Taiwan’s civil defense resilience. – The ROC Coast Guard Administration (CGA) intercepted a likely PRC ship suspected of damaging an undersea cable north of Taiwan on January 4. The CGA drove away a different PRC ship as it approached an area with undersea cables on January 6. Cutting undersea cables is a way for the PRC to isolate Taiwan or disrupt Taiwanese society. – Instability in the highest echelons of the PLA’s political commissars likely signals Xi Jinping’s dissatisfaction with their effectiveness in instilling his ideals of political loyalty. – Naturalized US citizen Chen Jinping pled guilty to charges of operating an illegal police station in New York at the behest of the PRC. – Sources close to the Japanese government assess the PLAN and CCG likely conducted a joint maritime blockade drill in the Miyako Strait for the first time on December 22. – Relations between the PRC and North Korea (DPRK) likely deteriorated in 2024 despite the year being dubbed the PRC-DPRK “Year of Friendship” in January 2024. – China-Taiwan Weekly Update, January 9, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
India
(Ramanand Garge – Vivekananda International Foundation) January 26, the largest democracy of the world celebrates its 75th Republic Day in 2024 and 75th year of Independence in 2022. Since 1947 after carving out its rightful place in the world India has emerged as a prominent entity at regional as well as global levels. Current rise of India is characterised by rapid and consistent economic growth and political stability ably complimented by the timely development of its enhanced capabilities. These elements enabled India to play a decisive role at the global level by defining prominent initiatives like Solar Alliance, the Counter-terror convention, hosting Interpol General Assembly, No Money for Terror (NMFT) conference, permanent secretariat No Money for Terror, maritime order at the strategic geography of Indo-Pacific reflects its grown capabilities (Interpol, 2022) (Government of India M. , 2022) (Government of India P. , 2022). While developing its capabilities, India has embraced the growth characterised by strong focus on self-reliance and always maintained, ensured its strategic autonomy that defines its overall domestic, regional, and global outreach of India. – Year 2024 : Many Accomplishments Achieved by India in the Strategic Domain | Vivekananda International Foundation
Islamic State
(Liam Karr, Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War) The Islamic State has evolved and expanded globally since the territorial defeat of IS in Iraq and Syria in 2019, enabling the organization to continue to orchestrate and inspire attacks on the West. IS Turkey Province and the Afghanistan-based IS Khorasan Province are pivotal nodes in IS’s external attack network and have repeatedly demonstrated the capability to coordinate attacks outside of their primary areas of operation. IS has taken advantage of weak states and poor governance in Africa to establish growing affiliates that control territory, support the IS global network, and bolster IS propaganda narratives. IS in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is now resurging in Syria after a years-long campaign to reconstitute itself. Recent shifts in the international counterterrorism posture in Syria and Africa risk creating security vacuums that IS can exploit to strengthen further. IS’s growing strength will inspire more lone wolf attackers and lead to more external attack plots against the West. – The Islamic State’s Global Long Game and Resurgence in Syria Poses an Evolved Threat to the West | Institute for the Study of War
(The Soufan Center) The Islamic State is prioritizing freeing its operatives and supporters from SDF-controlled prisons and recruiting new members from among the teens and tweens at the al-Hol detention camp. Incoming president Trump has mused about withdrawing the 900 soldiers who are working with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to combat the threat of the Islamic State. The SDF, with support from the United States and its coalition partners, is working to combat the threat of the Islamic State not only in the prisons but also at al Hol and Roj detention camps. Repatriation of women and children from al-Hol and al-Roj, if done with the necessary assessments, rehabilitation efforts and reintegration programs, holds the greatest promise for successfully diffusing the threat posed by Islamic State in the camps. – Avoiding a Resurgent Islamic State: Repatriation, Rehabilitation & Reintegration – The Soufan Center
Lebanon
(Will Todman – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Lebanon’s parliament elected General Joseph Aoun as president on January 9, 2025, ending a two-year stalemate. Parliament had failed to elect a president 12 times following the end of the previous president’s term in October 2022. Aoun has served as the commander of the Lebanese army since March 2017. – Lebanon Finally Elects a President
Middle East
(Annika Ganzeveld, Carolyn Moorman, Ria Reddy, Ben Rezaei, Kelly Campa, Avery Borens, and Nicholas Carl – Institute for the Study of War) Iraq: There are early indications that some Iraqi Sunni and Kurdish politicians are trying to build an alliance ahead of the Iraqi parliamentary elections in October 2025. Such an alliance would challenge the political influence of the Iranian-backed Shia parties. – Iraq: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly rejected any plans to postpone the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq during his meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani in Tehran. – Syria: Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan said that the HTS-led interim government in Syria should have the opportunity to address Turkish concerns vis-a-vis the SDF before Turkey launches a major military operation into northern Syria. – Iran Update, January 10, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Grace Mappes, Olivia Gibson, Angelica Evans, Nate Trotter, William Runkel, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War) Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition and drone storage warehouse in Rostov Oblast on the night of January 9 to 10. – The Kremlin reiterated that it is ready to hold talks with US President-elect Donald Trump without any “preconditions” but noted that its negotiating position remains unchanged. – The United States, United Kingdom, and Japan announced new sanctions against Russia on January 10. – The EU recently transferred three billion euros (about $3.07 billion) to Ukraine, the first tranche of EU funding from the profits of frozen Russian assets. – Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. – The BBC Russian Service reported on January 10 that a joint investigation conducted with Russian opposition outlet Medizona using open-source data has confirmed that at least 88,055 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine since February 2022. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 10, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
USA
(Elaine Kamarck, Jordan Muchnick – Brookings) The richest man in the world now sits close to the President elect and uses his powerful social media platform, X, to opine on everything from daylight savings time to visas for skilled workers. As the new administration takes shape, the number of multi-millionaires and billionaires moving to Washington grows. While this is good for Washington area real estate agents, is it good for democracy? Will someone who earns $14 million per day be able to appreciate how important $1,976.00 (the average monthly social security payment) is to millions of Americans? – Are the very rich taking over American politics?
(Tracy Hadden Loh, Xavier de Souza Briggs – Brookings) Local land use policies and decisionmaking approaches have long been contentious and high stakes. Though its contours vary from state to state, regulating land use is one of the most significant powers typically reserved for local governments as part of “home rule.” By shaping the built environment and the creation and distribution of wealth and access to well-being, land use policies and their impacts on development and ownership patterns often have generational effects on families, communities, and, in some cases, entire industries. Because local government budgets in the U.S. are so dependent on property tax revenues and thus property values, land use policy also has important and much-debated fiscal effects. – Getting to equitable development
USA – China
(The Soufan Center) The state-sponsored cyberattack on the U.S. Treasury Department by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) marks the latest escalation in Beijing’s use of hybrid tactics to undermine its strategic competitors. The targeted entities, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and the Office of the Treasury Secretary, both administered economic sanctions against Chinese companies in 2024 that engaged in cyberattacks or supplied Russia with weapons for Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Taiwan bears the brunt of the PRC’s escalating hybrid tactics, with government networks seeing nearly 2.4 million cyberattacks daily in 2024. State-sponsored cyberattacks by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) targeting U.S. infrastructure also seek to disrupt military supply lines and hinder an effective U.S. response in case of a potential conflict with the PRC, especially over Taiwan. –China Strategically Infiltrates U.S. Critical Infrastructure as Cyberattacks Escalate – The Soufan Center
USA – Europe
(Nigel Gould-Davies – IISS) Europe anxiously awaits Donald Trump’s inauguration. Its greatest fear is that the United States withdraws its commitments and resources from Ukraine, and perhaps the continent. But it can craft a diplomatic strategy to avert this. Europe must make the case that America has a compelling and enduring interest in European security, including Ukraine. What would this look like? – A Trump diplomacy for Europe
USA – Iran
(The Soufan Center) Challenges posed by Iran’s expanding nuclear program and its support for regional armed factions, particularly the Houthi (Ansarallah) movement in Yemen, will test Trump’s stated intent not to initiate armed conflict in the region. The Trump team is exploring options against Iran that stop short of undertaking air strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Trump and his national security aides will likely support a European-led effort to “snap back” UN sanctions lifted in 2016 to implement the multilateral Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA). The incoming administration has expressed support for a negotiated solution with Iran on all outstanding issues, but the gaps between the two sides will be difficult to bridge. – Iran Will Top Trump’s Agenda – The Soufan Center
USA – Lobito Corridor
(Shambhavi Anand – Vivekananda International Foundation) The US president, Joe Biden visited Angola, delivering on the promise he made during the 2022 U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit. This trip marks the first visit ever by a sitting U.S. president to the Republic of Angola, and the first visit of a U.S. president to Sub-Saharan Africa since 2015. [1] Why would the President of the United States of America visit the continent when he is expected to step down from office in a few days? Despite the late timing, the visit is indeed important because it reinforces the commitment that Africa has always been the priority for the United States despite a gap between Obama’s visit in 2015 and Biden’s trip to Angola in 2024. The visit comes after President Biden hosted Angolan President, João Lourenço in the Oval Office in Washington, D.C in November 2023. These visits helped improve the bilateral relationship between the countries in areas of defence, security, and infrastructure investment. Another noteworthy reason for his visit is geopolitical in nature; the provision of access to critical minerals in Africa is essential for countering Chinese competition. – Reimagining US Investment in the Lobito Corridor | Vivekananda International Foundation
USA – Somaliland
(Ezra Nnko – Vivekananda International Foundation) In mid-November 2024, during an interview with the Independent newspaper, the former UK Defence Secretary Sir. Gavin Williamson was quoted saying he had talks with U.S President-elect Donald Trump’s team on the possibility of the administration recognizing Somaliland as a sovereign state, according to Sir Williamson, the Trump team has prioritized the agenda as one of the key issues to be dealt with soon after assuming office on 20th January 2025. Somaliland which seceded from Somalia in 1991 has never been recognized by any country as a sovereign state. If this happens, the U.S. will become the first country to do so. – What if President Trump recognizes Somaliland? | Vivekananda International Foundation
Venezuela
(Atlantic Council) Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. On Friday, Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro was sworn in for a third six-year presidential term, six months after an election widely viewed as stolen in Maduro’s favor. Vote tallies collected by the opposition after the election showed that opposition candidate Edmundo González, not Maduro, secured more votes. Ahead of Friday’s inauguration, the Maduro regime cracked down on dissent, including by temporarily detaining María Corina Machado, another prominent opposition leader. Maduro digging in comes as the Biden administration imposed news sanctions on Venezuelan officials, and as many leaders in the Western Hemisphere, including US President-elect Donald Trump, expressed their support for González. So, what’s next for Venezuela? – Experts react: What does Maduro’s third-term power grab mean for Venezuela’s future? – Atlantic Council
Global Strategies
(P S Raghavan – Vivekananda International Foundation) We enter 2025 with two wars entering their final phase, but with no realistic basis for a long-term peace settlement. They have also ensured that global empathy has been totally diverted from other human tragedies, notably in Africa. We are also entering a new era in US politics, with a President who promises to transform the USA’s international approach. This has generated much hand-wringing among strategic commentators about undermining the US-led liberal international order. – War And The New World Order | Vivekananda International Foundation
