From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Arctic, Baltic Sea, China-USA-Germany-Japan-India, Gulf of Guinea, Iraq, Lebanon, Russia, Saudi Arabia-USA, Syria, Syria-USA-Kurds, Ukraine, USA, USA-Gulf, USA-Pakistan, Global Strategies
Arctic
(Durwood J. Zaelke, Paul Bledsoe – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) The Arctic Ocean could see its first ice-free day before the end of the decade, according to a new study by Céline Heuzé and Alexandra Jahn recently published in Nature. When that happens, a vast stretch of newly open ocean at the top of the world will absorb immense amounts of the sun’s warmth that until now has been safely reflected into space. The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world, half of the reflective sea ice has already melted, and the strong multi-year ice is down to less than five percent of 1980s levels. If the rest is allowed to disappear altogether, which could happen within decades, the loss of reflectivity will add the equivalent of 25 years of carbon dioxide emissions, further super-heating our world. – Trump has a fighting chance to prevent Arctic meltdown. He should take it. – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Baltic Sea
(Frida Rintakumpu, Sophie Arts, Jana Ondraskova – German Marshall Fund of the United States) The Baltic Sea has emerged as a hot spot for critical undersea infrastructure (CUI) damage. Incidents there have increasingly focused European attention on suspected gray-zone aggression, potentially by Russia and its partners. In the latest case on Christmas Day, an undersea electric cable, EstLink 2, connecting Estonia and Finland, was damaged, along with four telecommunication cables. – Tensions Under the Baltic Sea | German Marshall Fund of the United States
China – USA – Germany – Japan – India
(Joshua Sullivan, Jon Bateman – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) A number of U.S.-aligned countries are “decoupling” or “de-risking” their economic and technological ties with China in some form. Yet this international trend is often seen primarily through the lens of U.S. policy. Unilateral U.S. tools, like export controls, have enabled American officials to play an outsized role in isolating China from global supply chains—and in inspiring, or forcing, other countries to follow suit. Although U.S. leaders frequently debate these moves with allied counterparts, many in Washington still tend to presume that friendly nations are fundamentally like-minded on overall decoupling strategy. – China Decoupling Beyond the United States: Comparing Germany, Japan, and India | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Gulf of Guinea
(Rossella Marangio – EUISS) The Gulf of Guinea (GoG) spans over 6 000 km of coastline and 19 states. The region is rich in natural resources: it holds significant reserves of gas (2.7% of total world reserves) and oil (4.5%), as well as other valuable minerals including diamonds, tin, bauxite, manganese and cobalt. While the piracy threat in the region appears to be waning, other illicit activities are thriving. Its geographical location makes it an ideal gateway for illegal trafficking towards Africa and Europe, including narcotics from Latin America. Illegal, unreported and undocumented (IUU) fishing threatens local livelihoods and fish stocks in a region that accounts for 4% of global fish production. – Deep waters: the maritime security landscape in the Gulf of Guinea | European Union Institute for Security Studies
Iraq
(Emirates Policy Center) In the aftermath of the significant shift caused by the fall of the Assad regime, armed factions in Iraq are seeking to reposition themselves to ensure their survival and maintain their influence at both local and regional levels. This effort is occurring within the broader context of redefining Iraq’s national security framework. The Iraqi government’s authority is strengthening, bolstered by public opposition to these factions and the support of Marji’ (religious authority) for consolidating the state’s monopoly on legitimate force. Additionally, a sharp decline in Iran’s regional influence has emerged as a critical new factor shaping this dynamic. – Emirates Policy Center | Future of Armed Factions in Iraq after the Fall of Assad’s Regime in Syria
Lebanon
(Orna Mizrahi – INSS) After more than two years without a president, the Lebanese Parliament elected (January 9) the army commander, Joseph Aoun, as president of Lebanon with a large majority of 99 out of 128 members of parliament. His election marks a significant achievement for the anti-Hezbollah camp in Lebanon and reflects the current weakness of the organization within the Lebanese political system. Hezbollah, battered and bruised by the war, was forced to accept Aoun’s election after losing its parliamentary blocking majority and its ability to impose its own candidate as president, as it had demanded before the war. – The Election of Joseph Aoun as President of Lebanon—Another Blow to Hezbollah | INSS
Russia
(Oliver Ruth – RUSI) Sanctions have hindered Russia’s military capabilities by raising procurement costs, increasing reliance on allies and straining its economy – despite Moscow’s evasion efforts. – The Impact of Sanctions and Alliances on Russian Military Capabilities | Royal United Services Institute
Saudi Arabia – USA
(Nour Eid – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Donald Trump’s return to the White House could mean the end of the nonproliferation regime: As the Iranian-Israeli confrontation intensifies, and the threat of an Iranian nuclear breakout looms, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia could see in a second Trump administration an opportunity to finally get the nuclear cooperation the Saudis have been yearning for. – What a second Trump administration may mean for the Saudi nuclear program – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Syria
(Ilan Zalayat, Yoel Guzansky – INSS) The change of leadership in Syria opens a new arena of regional interest and competition, where Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) may once again find themselves in rivalry with Turkey and Qatar and in competition with each other. – Syria as an Arena of Regional Interest and Competition | INSS
Syria – USA – Kurds
(Omer Taspinar – Emirates Policy Center) To address the issue of the YPG/SDF, Washington needs to employ a multi-faceted strategy that balances counterterrorism objectives with the need to maintain strong bilateral relations with Ankara. The Biden administration has been clear in its support for the SDF, with its primary threat perception in Syria centered on ISIS. However, Trump’s return raises questions about how long Washington will continue its support. If Erdogan manages to convince Trump that a joint force consisting of the Turkish military and Syrian groups loyal to Ankara can take on ISIS and contain the risk of a jihadist resurgence, it is likely that the SDF will lose US support. The new Syrian administration will find itself torn between Washington’s and Ankara’s conflicting priorities. While Washington will hold leverage on critical issues, such as lifting sanctions, the new regime in Damascus may lean more toward Turkiye’s priorities. – Emirates Policy Center | The US and the Kurds in the new Syria
Ukraine
(Ian Mynot, Oksana Ihnatenko – RUSI) On 15 November 2024, RUSI’s Centre for Finance and Security and the Center for Financial Integrity (CFI)1 launched a Taskforce on Public–Private Partnership in Fighting Financial Crime in Ukraine. An in-person meeting in Warsaw, held on a non-attributable basis, convened 40 representatives, including those from the public and private sectors in Ukraine, and international experts. The discussion included two sessions focused on the current state of public–private partnerships (PPPs) in Ukraine and on international experience and recommendations. This report summarises the main findings of each of these sessions. First Taskforce Report: PPPs and Fighting Financial Crime in Ukraine | Royal United Services Institute
USA
(Creon Butler – Chatham House) President-elect Donald Trump’s radical economic policy platform has gathered huge attention. But the big long-term dangers to the US economy lie in other steps he has outlined that would undermine the quality of US policymaking and call into question America’s reliability as an ally. Ahead of the election Trump promised action in five main economic policy areas. He pledged tax cuts resulting in a stimulus of up to $8–10 trillion, to impose 10–20 per cent tariffs against all US trading partners and 60 per cent against China, to deport up to 11 million undocumented migrants, to unleash a wave of economic deregulation and to reform radically the federal bureaucracy, improving efficiency and cutting ‘enormous amounts’ of waste. He also promised to roll back the Biden administration’s pro-climate policies, to end the war in Ukraine and to double down on efforts to constrain China’s access to US technology. – The biggest economic risk from Donald Trump’s presidency is a loss of confidence in US governance | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Peter Gleick – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) As devastating wildfires sweep over parts of southern California, it is vital that media, the public, and our policymakers understand what’s happening and how to best respond. The first and most important need is to ensure that local communities have accurate, real-time information about the risks they face, and that emergency responders have the resources they need. In the coming months and years, however, it will be critical to improve our understanding of these risks and how they are changing with accelerating climate change and with changing population and development patterns, and to improve our ability to manage worsening disasters. What’s not helpful are inaccurate statements from politicians. But that’s what Donald Trump offered up when he posted a statement on TruthSocial falsely laying the blame for the fires and for firefighting problems on democratic governor Gavin Newsom and state water policies. – Spreading like wildfire: How Trump’s misinformation about water and fire in Los Angeles inflames the situation – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
(Jessica McKenzie – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Two people have died and more than 1,000 structures have been destroyed in wildfires raging in the Los Angeles area, according to Los Angeles County Fire Chief Anthony Marrone. Approximately 80,000 people have been ordered to evacuate, and thousands of structures are at risk. The Palisades Fire has burned over 11,800 acres in the upscale Pacific Palisades neighborhood and is continuing to grow, with zero percent containment. The Eaton Fire, burning in the Angeles National Forest and in Pasadena, is now over 10,000 acres and continuing to grow, with zero percent containment. The Hurst and Woodley fires have burned over 500 and 30 acres, respectively. – ‘Not enough firefighters’: Historic wildfires rage unabated in Southern California – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
(Jay Balagna, Alyson Harding, Vanessa Parks – RAND Corporation) The destructive winds and devastating fires that are sweeping through the Los Angeles area this week drove many, understandably, to their phones seeking information—and seeking to help. Downloads of apps like Watch Duty soared as Angelenos anxiously searched for information about evacuation boundaries, evacuation sites, and the fate of their neighborhoods. On social media, people also shared photos and news stories and reposted TV screenshots—and many of us followed these updates about the Palisades and Eaton fires starting Tuesday. Reliable information was mixed with mistaken secondhand reports, and as so often happens, confusion spread. – When Fire Information and the Desire to Help Collide Online | RAND
(James MacCarthy, Jessica Richter – World Resources Institute) Wildfires have been rapidly spreading across the Los Angeles area since Jan. 7, displacing upwards of 175,000 people and claiming at least five lives as of Jan. 9. The Palisades fire — the first to erupt and the biggest blaze so far — is already the most destructive fire in Los Angeles County history, engulfing over 17,000 acres and devastating surrounding communities. And the toll will only grow until fires around the city can be contained. – 4 Graphics Explain LA’s Rare January Fires | World Resources Institute
USA – Gulf
(Mohammed Barhouma – Emirates Policy Center) The persistence of the de-escalation approach between Gulf countries and Iran, along with the overt condemnation by these countries of Israeli military escalation against Iran, has marked a new and significant chapter in the regional de-escalation approach – one much needed by Tehran. The second iteration of the de-escalation approach reflects a genuine and serious Gulf desire for a more comprehensive, productive and realistic American role in addressing regional issues, including the Palestinian question. Washington should also deal with the Iranian issue through diplomacy rather than military confrontation. Gulf countries should engage with the Trump team early, articulating their interests and perspectives. These countries must navigate the dynamics within Trump’s team, which includes an isolationist faction aligned with his domestic agenda and a competing conservative faction with differing priorities. – Emirates Policy Center | Trump’s Return and the Second Version of the Gulf De-escalation Approach
USA – Pakistan
(Syed Ali Zia Jaffery – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) In December, the United States sanctioned four Pakistani entities involved in Pakistan’s ballistic missile program. According to the US State Department, this action was taken due to “the continuing proliferation threat of Pakistan’s long-range missile development.” While this is not the first round of sanctions on Pakistan’s ballistic missiles under the Biden administration, it is certainly more significant because it directly targets the National Defense Complex—Pakistan’s missile production facility sometimes called the National Development Complex. – Why US sanctions against Pakistan’s ballistic missile program might backfire – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Global Strategies
(World Economic Forum) Global cooperation is at a crossroads. While overall collaboration has flatlined, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and instability, positive momentum in areas of climate and nature, innovation and technology, and health and wellness offer hope. The Global Cooperation Barometer 2025 offers a comprehensive assessment of global collaboration broadly and across five pillars: trade and capital, innovation and technology, climate and natural capital, health and wellness, and peace and security. By analysing 41 indicators, the report identifies areas of progress and stagnation, highlighting the complexities of cooperation in a world marked by economic uncertainty, geopolitical divides and rapid technological advancements. – The Global Cooperation Barometer 2025 – Second Edition | World Economic Forum
(Chatham House) From the devastating wars in Ukraine, Sudan and Gaza to Donald Trump’s threats over Greenland and the Panama Canal, what are the places to watch this year? Bronwen Maddox is joined by Gideon Rachman, the Financial Times chief foreign affairs commentator, Leslie Vinjamuri, the director of our US and the America’s Programme and Renad Mansour, a senior fellow for our Middle East and North Africa Programme. – Independent Thinking: What will be the flashpoints of 2025? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
