From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Global Health, Indonesia, Iran-Houthis, Middle East, Russia, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, Ukraine, US, US-China, US Tariffs
Global Health
(Mariel Ferragamo – Council on Foreign Relations) Vaccines have been effective in reducing the prevalence of an array of diseases. In spite of some major successes, deep challenges still exist in guaranteeing equitable distribution of vaccines around the world, including a North-South divide. A rise in vaccine hesitancy and a U.S. administration that is withdrawing from global health programs cast doubt on the future of vaccination. – How Vaccines Changed the World | Council on Foreign Relations
Indonesia
(Monty Pounder – The Interpreter) For decades, Indonesia has spent little – by global standards – on its military. And the modest resources available have been mostly directed to the army rather than the navy or air force. Investments in these latter two services have been sporadic at best, and for a country covering millions of square kilometres of sea and thousands of remote islands, Indonesia has relatively few naval and air capabilities. The elevation of Prabowo Subianto as Indonesia’s defence minister in 2019 reinvigorated an agenda for acquiring sea and air platforms. Over his five years as minister, he secured funding for a procurement pipeline of high-end technologies for the air force and navy. The plans have precedents in Indonesian history, but they nonetheless stand out for cost and scale. – Big changes off a low base: Indonesia’s military modernisation | Lowy Institute
Iran – Houthis
(Fatima Abo Alasrar – Atlantic Council) If you were confused by the Telegraph article on Iran “abandoning” the Houthis, you’re not alone. That narrative is precisely the kind of strategic ambiguity Iran has long relied on, inviting speculation while concealing intent. But this moment isn’t just about misinformation. It’s about signaling. The anonymous official leaking the headline appears to be offering the perception of restraint, not to change facts on the ground, but to buy time, test reactions, and shape how those facts are read in Washington, Riyadh, and beyond. While Iran may have repositioned some personnel as the Telegraph claims, there is no credible evidence of pulling back support from the Houthis or a wholesale “abandonment.” Tehran still has its ambassador in Sanaa who advises the Houthis and maintains a significant covert operational presence in Yemen through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), specifically its Quds Force. Moreover, General Abdul Reza Shahlai, a senior Quds Force commander who has been active in Yemen since at least 2011–2012, serves on the Houthis’ Jihadis council. The IRGC’s presence in Yemen is linked to its so-called “6000 branch,” which oversees operations across the Arabian Peninsula. – No, Iran didn’t abandon the Houthis. It just wants Trump to think so. – Atlantic Council
Middle East
(Shelly Culbertson, C. Ross Anthony, Kobi Ruthenberg, Robert Lane, Shireen Shelleh – RAND Corporation) The world urgently needs a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In parallel with progress toward a long-term political settlement, other indispensable steps for peace and prosperity include infrastructure planning and economic development. In this report, the authors offer a vision for how spatial planning, infrastructure, and resource management in the West Bank and Gaza could better the daily lives of Palestinians now while supporting the evolution of a future Palestinian state. The vision incorporates six sectors (governance, environment, cities, transportation, energy, and water), about 200 projects, and plans in six locations (Nablus, Jericho, Hebron, Gaza City, North Jordan Valley, and East Jerusalem). The authors propose both quick-win projects that could begin immediately at the local level, even without a political solution, and longer-term, strategic infrastructure investments that would require regional agreements; incrementally, over time, these projects can comprise the essential infrastructure of a future state. The goal of this report is to contribute a tool for dialogue and rational planning, offering an integrated, technical approach to aid diplomacy and economic development. – A Spatial Vision for Palestine: A Long-Term Plan That Can Begin Now | RAND
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Xenophobia toward immigrants and ethnic minorities in Russia has reached nearly its highest level in decades, prompting some groups to form ethnic enclaves, which, in turn, has exacerbated hostility toward these groups. Both immigrants and ethnic minorities, as well as Russian nationalists who do not like them, are arming themselves, raising the specter of clashes, especially as veterans of Russia’s war against Ukraine return home and join them. Moscow has managed to control any escalations in violence up to now, but officials worry this combination of developments threatens national security, prompting them to think about draconian responses that would likely prove counterproductive. – Ethnic Enclaves Spreading Across Russia, Intensifying Xenophobia and Alarming Moscow – Jamestown
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Vladimir Socor – The Jamestown Foundation) The Black Sea is the only theater in which Ukraine is prevailing over Russia in the ongoing war. The Kremlin regards the U.S.-brokered, deadline-driven ceasefire talks as an opportunity to reverse Ukraine’s successes in this theater. A maritime ceasefire without demarcation lines and restricting Ukraine’s use of naval drones would let Russia’s reduced but still-dominant fleet return to Sevastopol and the western Black Sea, potentially interfering with commercial shipping again. The terms of the latest ceasefire talks apparently protect Russia’s inland energy assets from Ukrainian aerial drone strikes but do not protect Ukrainian ports from Russian air strikes. Military targets in Crimea seem to be off limits for Ukraine under those terms. – Russia Uses Black Sea Ceasefire Talks to Regain Former Hegemony – Jamestown
Ukraine
(Yuri Lapaiev – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukraine’s defense forces announced a Space Policy Directorate to develop a national satellite communication system as a key element of Command and Control and military technology development. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are in critical need of a robust satellite communications system, either domestically produced or in partnership with other providers, particularly European, to move away from reliance on Starlink. Russia is increasing the use of smuggled Starlink terminals in its armed forces and continues to develop its own similar systems that could be shared with its allies, such as the People’s Republic of China, North Korea, or Iran. – Ukraine Prioritizes Developing National Satellite Communications System – Jamestown
US
(Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, Aidan Powers-Riggs – Center for Strategic & International Studies) On April 9, the Trump administration issued an executive order (EO) on Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance. The EO aims to set the foundation for a major effort across the U.S. government to revitalize U.S. shipbuilding and maritime industries. While the United States has not been a significant player in commercial shipbuilding for decades, concern has grown in Washington that its declining maritime industrial base puts it on the back foot in competing with China’s rapidly growing economic and military power. Given the scale and long-term investment required to meaningfully revive U.S. shipbuilding, the EO should be understood as an initial step to address the challenge, not a comprehensive maritime strategy. While many specific details remain to be worked out, the EO outlines the broad contours of the administration’s developing approach. – Unpacking the White House’s Executive Order on Restoring the U.S. Shipbuilding Industry
(William Henagan – Council on Foreign Relations) Today, the Trump Administration signed a new executive order on shipbuilding: the first official action of the new “Office of Shipbuilding” that the President announced during his Joint Address to Congress in March. The office – formally established as a new directorate within the National Security Council – reports to National Security Advisor Mike Waltz under the official title of the “Maritime and Industrial Capacity Directorate.” Notably, all the activities directed in the executive order, including its implementation, will be coordinated through Waltz and the National Security Council. Before departing Congress to join the Trump Administration, Waltz collaborated closely with a bipartisan coalition of members, including Senators Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Todd Young (R-IN), on the development of the bipartisan SHIPS Act. Many of the actions directed in the order mirror the proposals outlined in that legislation, which focuses on the revitalization of American marine industrial capacity and supporting the nation’s merchant mariners. – Can Trump’s Shipbuilding Order Compete With Chinese Investment? | Council on Foreign Relations
(William H. Frey – Brookings) As a group, the nation’s 55 major metro areas shifted from a historic population decline in the peak pandemic year of 2020-21 to a gain of 2.3 million residents in 2023-24, with immigration from abroad accounting for almost all of that increase. Only one of these 55 metro areas (Memphis, Tenn.) lost population in 2023-24, compared to 20 in 2020-21. Over this period, metro area New York rose from having the greatest population decline to the greatest gain. International migration dominated growth in most major metro areas. Among the 54 metro areas that grew in 2023-24, immigration accounted for all of the growth in 21 and half or more of the growth in another 24. Domestic migration patterns eased between the early 2020s and 2023-24. Out-migration from the metro areas that lost the most population slowed down, as did in-migration to the metro areas that gained the most population. Cities and core counties within major metro areas saw demographic rebounds. Among 37 select core counties, 32 shifted from negative to positive growth from 2020-21 to 2023-24, with immigration contributing most to recent gains. – Recent immigration brought a population rebound to America’s major metro areas, new census data show
US – China
(Bradley T. Gericke – Atlantic Council) It seems that “protraction” as a way of war is having a moment, especially through the lens of a future war against China. The Army is holding wargames and conferences addressing it. Even fresh scholarship is skeptical of short wars. All of which is somewhat bewildering because history is replete with long wars, and the record of long wars is one of much blood and great cost. Tinkering with notions of protracted war allows military decision-makers to be distracted and to make a poor bargain, like the trade made by the legendary Doctor Faust that comes with extraordinary cost. Clearly, the cost of long wars is extraordinarily high. In every respect, long wars should be an unwelcome result, not an outcome to be acquiesced. The Army especially cannot afford to mischaracterize the inevitability of long war. Acceptance of protraction as an inevitability is to surrender the United States’ best way to win militarily against China, which is to fight and win the first battle of any war. Appearing to accept that the United States will not win the first battle in a US-China war could also fatally undermine deterrence by signaling a lack of confidence in US capabilities. Winning in a future contest and strengthening deterrence means making decisions now: real choices must be made regarding forward posture, organizational structure, training, and modernization to create a battlefield system that leverages US advantages. – Win fast or lose big against China – Atlantic Council
(Dexter Tiff Roberts – Atlantic Council) US President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz has morphed into a US-China trade war, with tariffs exceeding 10 percent on most countries now given a ninety-day reprieve while those on China are hiked to a dizzying 145 percent, following Beijing upping its levies on the United States to 84 percent. So what’s likely to come next? Well, for one, the White House appears to have badly miscalculated in thinking China’s leaders “want to make a deal” and would rush to the negotiating table. “The US threat to escalate tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake and once again exposes the blackmailing nature of the US,” China’s commerce ministry said on Tuesday. “China will never accept this. If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.” – China is ready to ‘eat bitterness’ in the trade war. What about the US? – Atlantic Council
(Atlantic Council) He’s hitting the brakes and the gas. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced that he would suspend until July many of the “liberation day” import tariffs that had gone into effect hours earlier, but also raise the tariff on China to a whopping 145 percent—while keeping the 10 percent global tariff in place. The news caused markets to jolt upward, after having lost trillions of dollars in value in the past week, but they plunged again on Thursday as the full details became clear. – What to expect as Trump’s trade war zeroes in on China – Atlantic Council
US Tariffs
(Navin Girishankar – Center for Strategic & International Studies) The on-again, off-again tariff roller coaster continues. Yesterday, President Trump’s 90-day pause on “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs on all countries except China had businesses and investors breathing a sigh of relief. It appears that evidence of the sell-off of 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds, and the resultant rise in yields, gave the administration pause. Whether or not that was a kill switch on President Trump’s attempt to reorder the global trading system, U.S. economic policy itself, once the bulwark of the global economy, is now the main source of risk and instability to the global economy. – A Partial Pause on Tariffs—Will the United States Choose Innovation Instead?
(Robin Brooks – Brookings) Markets have gyrated wildly since the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff announcement last week. Right after April 2, the dollar fell sharply alongside a big sell-off in the S&P 500, which some saw as a sign that U.S. reserve currency status is under mounting strain. We think there is a more benign reason why the dollar fell alongside the S&P 500. Markets scaled back sharply their growth expectations for the U.S. after April 2. As a result, rate differentials moved sharply against the U.S., pulling the dollar down. Financial indicators signal moderate stress at the current juncture. A yuan devaluation by China is the main risk to this picture. – Tariff turmoil in markets
