Geostrategic environment (september 26, 2022)

Geostrategic thinking

THINKING COMPLEX

Our strategic question, the starting point for research, is: how to politically govern the necessary reorganisation of the planetary framework in the continuous and radical transformation of risk?

The rethinking of globalisation into glocalisation must take place within the overall, and complex, framework of the transformation of risk. We ourselves generate the risk because it depends on us.

Let us first say that risk is not necessarily a negative factor, such as crisis. Risk lives deep within our certainties, in the space of ‘in-certainty’. Risk is part of the natural conflictuality of human systems, of the confrontation-meeting-dialogue between the differences that make up the infinite mosaic of the human and planetary condition.

To think of reality without risk and without conflict is to have a totalitarian idea of reality itself. The issue of risk, in short, is deeply political.

Noting that risk is a determining part of the reality-that-we-are, what we want to continue to explore is the transformation of the same: the problem we have today, (paradoxically) increasingly evident, is that risk is less and less visible, palpable, predictable.

Today, in fact, the ‘society of risk’ lives in its being ‘onlife’, in that new ‘where’ that we cannot control politically but which is quite real: it is the place where much of our socialisation, much propaganda and just as much misinformation and disinformation pass through.

Equally, the ‘risk society’ plays dangerously in the unexpected becoming real. We could call it a ‘sudden and unforeseen’ risk, that – for example – of a terrorism that has the sensitive goal of not allowing life to run smoothly.

Again, the risk in the third millennium is within the tragic laboratory of ‘hybrid war’ (we see it every day in Ukraine). The ‘booz on the ground’ war continues to represent the tragic evidence but, as we know, cyber war and the planetary consequences (think energy, food, security, nuclear risk to humans and the natural environment) of local-regional wars are part of the tactics-strategy of war itself.

The risk is in many areas. Consider, in conclusion, the ‘democratic risk’, which is not linked to the outcome of elections but to the progressive ‘hollowing out’ of liberal and representative democracies. Consider the risk of the continuous separation of the world between ‘good’ and ‘evil’, as if history drew completely perfect worlds and other worlds to be fought as enemies.

Finally, think of a risk about which little is said but which is substantial: it is the risk of narratives of the world based solely on muscular confrontation, competition, either/or. This last risk, within the de-generative megacrisis we are experiencing, is the cultural point from which to continue our research: we need complexity for a new geostrategic thinking.

(by M.E.)

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

HIGHLIGHTS – GLOBAL NEWS

TOPICS

  • (Cities and Democracy) September 26, 2022. Steven Bosacker, GMF. After a year of research and working alongside 12 cities—six from Europe, six from the United States—on a project appropriately named Cities Fortifying Democracy, there are at least seven areas where local democracy can be vulnerable but where timely and dedicated actions will undoubtedly strengthen it. Seven Issues that Need Attention to Keep Local Democracy Strong
  • (Cybersecurity) September 26, 2022. Virpratap Vikram Singh, ORF. Earlier this month the “strongest public response to a cyberattack” was witnessed when Albania severed diplomatic relations with Iran over its role in the devastating cyberattacks against Albania’s government infrastructure. This cascading incident highlights the vast differences in nation-state capabilities and defences within cyberspace, and how offensive cyber operations can devastate those nations caught in the middle. Caught in the crossfire of cyber conflict
  • (Defense – Military – Security) September 26, 2022. Bruce Wright, Defense News. The U.S. Air Force celebrated the 75th anniversary of its founding last week. There is much to celebrate about the accomplishments of our Air Force over the past three quarters of a century, but today, as China is increasingly bellicose and Russia is waging a brutal war against Ukraine, American air power is no longer the dominant force we need it to be. Accelerating change today to ensure air dominance tomorrow
  • (Digital & Tech) September 26, 2022. Patrick Mitchell, Liv Rowley, and Justin Sherman with Nima Agah, Gabrielle Young, and Tianjiu Zuo, Atlantic Council. The explosion of Internet of Things (IoT) devices and services worldwide has contributed to an explosion in data processing and interconnectivity. Simultaneously, this interconnection and resulting interdependence have amplified a range of cybersecurity risks to individuals’ data, company networks, critical infrastructure, and the internet ecosystem writ large. Governments, companies, and civil society have proposed and implemented a range of IoT cybersecurity initiatives to meet this challenge, ranging from introducing voluntary standards and best practices to mandating the use of cybersecurity certifications and labels. However, issues like fragmentation among and between approaches, complex certification schemes, and placing the burden on buyers have left much to be desired in bolstering IoT cybersecurity. Ugly knock-on effects to states, the private sector, and users bring risks to individual privacy, physical safety, other parts of the internet ecosystem, and broader economic and national security. Security in the billions: Toward a multinational strategy to better secure the IoT ecosystem
  • (Food Insecurity) September 21, 2022. FAO-WFP. The number of people facing acute food insecurity worldwide is expected to continue to rise precipitously, as the food crisis tightens its grip on 19 ‘hunger hotspots’ – driven by rising conflict, weather extremes, and economic instability aggravated by the pandemic and the ripple effects of the crisis in Ukraine, a joint UN report released today has found. Food crisis tightens its grip on 19 ‘hunger hotspots’ as famine looms in the Horn of Africa – new report
  • (Global Governance) September 26, 2022. Valdai Discussion Club. We see that over the past 100 years, the phenomenon of permanent alliances has come to look very archaic. In cases where the leading power is not ready to play the role of a dictator — due to subjective or objective reasons — an alliance no longer becomes an instrument for ensuring the collective interests of its participants, but a factor in diplomatic interaction between them, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev. The Fate of Alliances in the Modern World
  • (G7 Hiroshima Summit) September 21, 2022. Daisuke Akimoto Ph.D., Institute for Security & Development Policy. On May 19-21 next year, the Japanese government will host the G7 Hiroshima Summit. It is assumed that Prime Minister Kishida Fumio plans to express a strong diplomatic message for peace and nuclear disarmament by announcing a so-called “Hiroshima Action Plan” at the summit. Global issues, such as world economy, food deficiency, and the energy problem, are anticipated to be on the summit agenda. Nonetheless, special attentions may be paid to “global health” at the summit in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. During TICAD 8 held in Tunisia on August 27-28, Kishida pledged to donate as much as $1.08 billion to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. How is the Kishida government planning to contribute to the enhancement of the global health system at the G7 Hiroshima Summit? Japan’s Global Health Strategy: A Diplomatic Foresight on the G7 Hiroshima Summit
  • (G7 Hiroshima Summit) September 24, 2022. Yoko Iwama, East Asia Forum. This year will be a watershed year in the 21st century. Russia’s integration into the liberal international order has ended in disaster. China has stood by Russia since the invasion of Ukraine and their strategic and diplomatic coordination has increased. Russia and China performed joint patrols during US President Joe Biden’s Asia tour to signal their partnership. The Russia–Ukraine war has renewed calls for the G7 to help ensure peace and security amid an increasingly unstable environment. Nuclear peace a priority ahead of Hiroshima G7 Summit
  • (Health & Digital) September 26, 2022. Mark Melchionna, Health IT Analytics. Mayo Clinic and nference have expanded their artificial intelligence (AI)-based collaboration with the launch of a new platform that will leverage de-identified EHR data to increase access to data-derived insights. Mayo Clinic, nference Expand Artificial Intelligence Collaboration
  • (High Altitude Nuclear Detonations) September 23, 2022. Robert “Tony” Vincent, War on the Rocks. Aurora Borealis is the scientific term given to the natural light phenomenon of the Northern Lights. On July 9, 1962, the light phenomenon that Hawaiians watched was anything but natural. On that day, the Atomic Energy Commission, in collaboration with the Defense Atomic Support Agency, detonated a thermonuclear device in low Earth orbit. The test was codenamed Starfish Prime and it revealed an unfortunate lesson: Even one high altitude nuclear detonation is particularly effective at destroying satellites. Not only were satellites in the line of sight destroyed, but even satellites on the other side of Earth were damaged and rendered inoperable. Starfish Prime damaged or destroyed roughly one third of all satellites in low Earth orbit at the time. Getting Serious about the Threat of High Altitude Nuclear Detonations
  • (International Telecommunication Union) September 26, 2022. Mercedes Page, The Interpreter. The campaign to elect the next Secretary-General of the International Telecommunication Union has entered the final stretch, with UN member states assembling in Bucharest, Romania this week to cast their votes between the Russian-supported and US-backed candidates vying for the top job. A neck-and-neck election for the future of the internet
  • (JCPOA) September 26, 2022. , The Strategist. The Vienna negotiations to revive the July 2015 Iran nuclear agreement—the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA—are once again in danger of fizzling out. Tehran and Washington, along with fellow signatories Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, have been trying for more than a year to hammer out a deal that could satisfy both sides, but to no avail. Is the Iran nuclear agreement dead?

WORLDS

  • (AUKUS – China) September 26, 2022.  Leng Shumei and
    Hu Yuwei, Global Times. The Chinese mission to the UN in Vienna warned in an exclusive statement sent to the Global Times on Sunday that the latest move by AUKUS to plan to expedite Australia’s nuclear submarine construction is a blatant defiance of and trampling on the international nuclear non-proliferation system, and is an act of nuclear proliferation under the pretext of “naval nuclear propulsion.”. AUKUS’ plan to expedite Australia’s nuclear sub construction an act of nuclear proliferation under ‘naval nuclear propulsion’ cover: Chinese mission to UN
  • (Bosnia and Herzegovina) September 26, 2022. Crisis Group. A pre-election standoff between Bosniaks and Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina has taken an ugly turn, with rhetoric from the 1990s war reappearing. Ideally, politicians would make the reforms needed to settle the quarrel but, if not, the internationally appointed high representative should do so.  Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Hot Summer
  • (China) September 21, 2022. Sébastien Lechevalier, CIGS. Wages have risen sharply in China for more than two decades: the average nominal wage of urban workers increased 13-fold between 1998 and 2020. On average, it is now higher than in most non-OECD countries, which raises the question of the current and future drivers of Chinese growth, which until the 2000s was based on low labour costs. Wage hike is not at odds with innovation
  • (China) September 26, 2022. , The Strategist. For more than four years, Chinese President Xi Jinping has been giving speeches and going on inspection tours throughout China delivering an important message—China needs to become less reliant on key technologies imported from abroad. At a meeting in 2020, Xi implored researchers to work towards breakthroughs in ‘choke point’ or ‘stranglehold’ technologies. These are important technological domains that China can’t readily produce domestically. They are often referred to, especially in Chinese official media, as ‘controlled by others’. How China plans to engineer its way out of technology ‘strangleholds’
  • (China – North Korea) September 26, 2022. Reuters. Cross-border freight train operations between North Korea and China appears to have resumed after a five-month suspension, South Korea’s unification ministry said on Monday. North Korea, China resume cross-border freight train operation -S.Korea ministry
  • (Ethiopia) September 23, 2022. Dawit Mekonnen, Hua Xie, IFPRI. Agriculture accounts for 34% of Ethiopia’s GDP and 67% of its employment, and development of irrigation is widely seen as a promising option to boost agricultural production and enhance agricultural resilience in the country. However, energy use in irrigated agriculture in Ethiopia is insignificant at present, and access to energy sources is often lacking, hampering the spread of irrigation technologies. The cost effectiveness of different energy solutions for irrigated agriculture is also likely to vary depending on the location of the farm and the type of crop. Modeling the optimal energy solutions for irrigation in Ethiopia
  • (Europe – Ukraine) September 26, 2022. Luke Cooper, Mary Kaldor, ECFR. The European Union should offer Ukraine preferential access to the single market, and help avoid predictions of a ‘long war’ becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. In Europe’s gift: How to avoid a Ukraine ‘forever war’
  • (Germany) September 26, 2022. IFO. Sentiment in the German economy has deteriorated considerably. The ifo Business Climate Index fell to 84.3 points in September, down from 88.6 points (seasonally adjusted) in August. This is its lowest value since May 2020. The decline is affecting all four sectors of the economy. Companies assessed their current business as clearly worse. Pessimism regarding the coming months has grown decidedly; in retail, expectations have fallen to a record low. The German economy is slipping into recession. ifo Business Climate Index Falls across the Board (September 2022)
  • (Germany – Africa) September 14, 2022. Megatrends Afrika. Germany’s new National Security Strategy should emphasise crisis prevention, stabilisation, and peacebuilding. It should look at not only threats but also opportunities, identify principles for coherence, and ensure greater review of effectiveness, writes Gerrit Kurtz (SWP) in this Megatrends Afrika Spotlight. Crisis Prevention and Stabilisation in Africa: three implications for Germany’s National Security Strategy
  • (India) September 26, 2022. Shravishtha Ajaykumar, ORF. Indian needs to adopt a more proactive approach and foresee the potential of cyber technologies in an active war scenario. India: Crucial cyberwarfare capabilities need to be upgraded
  • (India) September 26, 2022. Harish Kumar Manchanda, ORF. For India to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070, coal power must be phased out entirely, and renewable capacity needs to grow. Power Sector: Stumbling block in India’s net-zero journey
  • (India) September 26, 2022. Harsh V. Pant, Vivek Mishra, ORF. Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit to the United States (September 18-28) has set the stage for an expansive range of bilateral and multilateral diplomacy by India. It is a unique visit as it seeks to achieve a vast list of objectives led by the Indian delegation’s participation in the High-Level Week at the 77th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, which opened on September 13. A ground plan for India’s reformed multilateralism
  • (India) September 26, 2022. Somdeep Sen, Al Jazeera. India’s Hindu right wing has long advocated for its vision across the world. Overseas offshoots of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have helped in this, as have allied groups like the Vishwa Hindu Parishad or World Hindu Council. Hindu nationalists now pose a global problem
  • (India – Japan – ASEAN) September 2022. Jagannath P. Panda, Institute for Security & Development Policy. This book focuses on the scope, potential and future of the India-Japan-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) trilateral. India-Japan-ASEAN Triangularity: Emergence of a Possible Indo-Pacific Axis?
  • (India – Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) September 26, 2022. Amb D P Srivastava, VIF. Prime Minister Modi visited Samarkand to take part in the 22nd Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation on 15-16th September 2022. He also had bilateral meetings with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev President Putin of Russia, President Ebrahim Raisi of Iran, and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey. The meeting came against the background of the continuing war in Ukraine and tensions in the Taiwan Strait. The Samarkand Declaration adopted at the conclusion of the SCO Summit touched upon a wide range of political and economic issues. Of particular interest to India are Afghanistan, terrorism, and connectivity issues. PM Modi’s Visit to Samarkand
  • (Japan) September 13, 2022. FATF. Since the 2021 assessment of Japan’s measures to tackle money laundering and terrorist financing, the country has taken a number of actions to strengthen its framework. In line with the FATF Procedures for mutual evaluations, the country has reported back to the FATF on the action it has taken since their mutual evaluation. Consequently, to reflect Japan’s progress, the FATF has re-rated the country on Recommendation 2  from Partially Compliant to Largely Compliant. Today, Japan is compliant on 4 Recommendations and largely compliant on 25. The country remains partially compliant on 9 Recommendations. Japan will remain in enhanced follow up and will continue to inform the FATF of progress achieved on improving the implementation of its AML/CFT measures. Documents – Financial Action Task Force
  • (Kenya) September 12, 2022. , New Security Beat. “The food system is complex; it is not just about food production,” said Florence Odiwuor, a Kenyan Southern Voices for Peacebuilding Scholar, at a recent event on the role of food security systems in sustainable peacebuilding in Africa hosted by the Wilson Center’s Africa Program. As a lecturer at the School of Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Environmental Studies at Rongo University, Odiwour observed that given the food system’s interconnectedness with issues like education, gender, finance, and labor, “disruptions or failures in the [food] system have caused a lot of conflict in [Kenya].”. Food Security as a Driver for Sustainable Peace in Kenya
  • (Niger) September 21, 2022. Megatrends Afrika. The French military operation Barkhane has concluded its withdrawal from Mali on 15 August 2022. As it relocates partially to neighbouring Niger, civil society has risen in protest there as well. Additionally, President Mohamed Bazoum’s announcement to increase the Diesel price ignited a public outcry. Megatrends Afrika spoke with Moussa Tchangari, secretary general of the Nigerien non-governmental organisation Alternative Espaces Citoyens (AEC), about the reasons for social discontent, new forms of protest, and possible ways out of the current security crisis. Niger’s civil society in protest: “Europe should take the opinions of the people seriously.”
  • (Philippines) September 26, 2022. At times during the presidency of Rodrigo Duterte, it seemed that the Philippines’ foreign policy was to not have much of a policy at all. Personal position and geopolitical posture in the Philippines
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 26, 2022. and , Reuters. Ukraine’s president and security chiefs met on Monday to plan ways to counteract Russia’s use of “new types of weapons” after Moscow stepped up attacks in Odesa region using Iranian combat drones, the president’s office and a regional official said. Russia steps up attacks with Iranian drones, Ukraine plans defences
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 26, 2022. Al Jazeera. As the Russian offensive enters its 215th day, we track where the fighting is happening and how we got here. Russia-Ukraine war in maps and charts: Live Tracker
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 20, 2022. Jada Fraser, Institute for Security & Development Policy. The international coalition that banded together in response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine demonstrates democracies’ ability to endure national discomfort to confront authoritarian challenges to territorial integrity, sovereignty, and self-determination. Six months into the invasion, support for sanction packages on Russia remains high across the U.S. (80 percent) and allies in Europe (78 percent in the EU), even while inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions continue to cause economic damage. Beyond the Trans-Atlantic relationship, the support of U.S. allies in Asia has been critical to sustaining a global coalition that opposes Putin’s war and imposes costs on his regime. The two most important U.S. allies in Asia, Japan’s and South Korea’s resolute support for Ukraine are leaps and bounds ahead of both countries’ lackluster responses to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. Yet, misalignments in Seoul’s and Tokyo’s policy responses both with each other and with the United States and other European allies risk undermining the effectiveness of this global coalition and could similarly weaken an international response to future crises. Sustaining an International Coalition of the Willing: Lessons from Japan’s and South Korea’s Response to Putin’s War in Ukraine
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 26, 2022. Ian Hill, The Interpreter. Ukraine’s successful counter-offensive in Kharkiv region and President Vladimir Putin’s sharply escalatory response in recent days represent a turning point in the Ukraine conflict. The outlook remains uncertain but the war has entered a more dangerous phase. Ukraine conflict: turning point?
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 25, Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to overcome fundamental structural challenges in attempting to mobilize large numbers of Russians to continue his war in Ukraine. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 25
  • (Sahel) September 26, 2022. Gabriela Ramos, Al Jazeera. Born from distorted interpretations of culture as well as from hatred and ignorance, violence by armed groups threatens the very foundations of our societies, tearing us apart and weakening collaboration between communities. Worryingly, the Global Peace Index 2022 reported a 17 percent increase in such attacks in 2021. To fight hate and violence in the Sahel, we need to talk more
  • (Türkiye) September 19, 2022. Ali Tuygan, EDAM. A Brief Overview of Turkiye’s Foreign Relations
  • (UK) September 26, 2022.  Sam Hughes and Ian Mitchell, Center for Global Development. The UK  is welcoming the highest number of refugees in at least four decades, having already issued over 180,000 visas to Ukrainians. But as things currently stand, the UK’s generosity is being met by reducing other aid programmes. Indeed, it has now frozen any “nonessential” spending.  Projections of UK-Hosted Refugees, and the Implications for the UK’s Aid Budget and Spend
  • (Ukraine) September 26, 2022. Crisis Group. Some seven million people are displaced inside Ukraine, many of them with no home to return to. The grassroots effort organised to help them is not sustainable. Donors should keep channelling aid to civil society but lay the groundwork for the state to step in. Responding to Ukraine’s Displacement Crisis: From Speed to Sustainability
  • (USA) September 26, 2022. Justin Dorazio, Center for American Progress. Under President Joe Biden’s administration, the federal government has provided historic investments to states and local communities to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting economic crisis; revitalize the United States’ infrastructure; advance environmental justice; and spur economic opportunity for minority-owned businesses. And with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in August, the federal government is making its most significant climate and clean energy investments in history. Critically, the Biden administration has made an extraordinary commitment through the Justice40 Initiative to direct at least 40 percent of all climate and infrastructure investment benefits toward disadvantaged communities. Localized Anti-Displacement Policies
  • (USA) September 19, 2022. and , New Security Beat. States are sometimes overlooked as drivers of climate action, yet some of them have been true leaders that bring significant influence. In Washington State, for instance, a strong coalition has worked to develop a smart, foundational climate policy for decarbonization in all sectors of the state’s economy. The Powerful Policy Ripples of Washington State’s CETA
  • (USA – Philippines) September 25, 2022. Luke Lischin, East Asia Forum. After six years of uncertainty under former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, the election of President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr has been met with cautious optimism in Washington regarding the future of the US–Philippines alliance. Marcos is no silver bullet for the US–Philippines alliance
  • (USA – South Pacific) September 26, 2022. , The Strategist. The first US summit with South Pacific leaders offers symbolism and the chance of future substance. The US announces, ‘We’re back!’. The US comes back to the South Pacific

 

Marco Emanuele
Marco Emanuele è appassionato di cultura della complessità, cultura della tecnologia e relazioni internazionali. Approfondisce il pensiero di Hannah Arendt, Edgar Morin, Raimon Panikkar. Marco ha insegnato Evoluzione della Democrazia e Totalitarismi, è l’editor di The Global Eye e scrive per The Science of Where Magazine. Marco Emanuele is passionate about complexity culture, technology culture and international relations. He delves into the thought of Hannah Arendt, Edgar Morin, Raimon Panikkar. He has taught Evolution of Democracy and Totalitarianisms. Marco is editor of The Global Eye and writes for The Science of Where Magazine.

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