Geostrategic environment (october 6, 2022)

Geostrategic thinking

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  • (Australia) October 6, 2022. , The Strategist. The independent leads of Australia’s defence strategic review, Stephen Smith and Angus Houston, have a tough task on their hands. It’s the first such review since Paul Dibb’s in 1986, which largely governed the 1987 white paper—and the first since consensus sees us ‘out of warning time’. The then government accepted Dibb’s thesis that we planned against capability challenges in the region amounting to an ‘escalated low level’ threat. The facilities, personnel, industry and weapons systems he recommended could deal with that from ‘the force in being’ emanating from the paper. It also assessed that an ‘expansion base’ would be developed from it should a serious threat develop—and such a threat would take 15 years to emerge. That threat has taken 30 years. Learning from the past to defend Australia now
  • (Australia) October 6, 2022.  and , The Strategist. Australia has long positioned itself as a leader in the global effort to eradicate modern slavery. Two reports released in the past three months highlight both the importance of this leadership to Australia’s broader strategic goals and the increased urgency of the challenge that lies ahead. While the eradication of modern slavery is a moral imperative in its own right, the issue is also one of (often underestimated) significance for Australia’s strategic interests in the Asia–Pacific. Eradicating modern slavery: lessons for Australia and the region
  • (Australia) October 6, 2022. , The Strategist. Vast and, more often than not, hidden supply and value chains underpin modern Australian life. We’ve become accustomed to, if not overly confident in, the ability of markets to meet our every need and want. Covid-19 and a series of concurrent natural disasters have left us with a nagging feeling that things might not really be so rosy. It’s become painfully apparent that some countries won’t always act in the interest of open global trade. Magnesium market highlights continuing fragility of global supply chains
  • (Belarus) October 4, 2022. , CEPA. The Belarusian dictator has done everything to placate Putin and a skeptical public, but there are signs he’s failing. Lukashenka Plays Russian Roulette
  • (Brazil) October 4, 2022. Yasmin Calmet, InterRegional for Strategic Analysis. This October 2nd, Brazilian voters will go to the polls to elect the country’s next president. However, the presidential race shows a fragmented country that has been split by the institutional political crisis that began in 2013 and by an increase in political violence, which has given rise to a scenario of tension, fear, and uncertainty about the direction that Brazil will take in the next four years. Critical Choice: How the Brazilian General Election Might Shape the Domestic Political Scene
  • (China – Georgia) October 5, 2022. Emil Avdaliani, The Jamestown Foundation. On September 21, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili in New York, during the United Nations General Assembly, and stressed the importance of the Middle Corridor (or Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, “TITR”), which runs directly through Georgia, for regional transit (Fmprc.gov, September 21). Chinese Companies Are Reshaping Georgia’s Geography
  • (El Salvador) October 5, 2022. Following a spate of murders, the Salvadoran government ordered mass roundups of suspected criminal gang members, throwing more than 53,000 in jail. The clampdown is popular but unsustainable. Authorities should develop a path out of gang life that members can choose. A Remedy for El Salvador’s Prison Fever
  • (Ethiopia) October 4, 2022. Francesca Battistelli, Jemal Ahmed Tadesse and Lizzie Marsters, World Resources Institute. Land and watershed degradation in Ethiopia threaten agricultural productivity, water supplies, and livelihoods. Key challenges include inadequate financing and unsustainable conservation interventions. Innovative financing strategies can help attract domestic and international investments for conservation interventions, or “nature-based solutions” (NBS). Financing Sustainable Watershed Management in Ethiopia: Exploring Innovative Financing Strategies for Nature-Based Solutions
  • (Europe – Gazoduc Nigeria-Morocco) October 5, 2022. Jamal Machrouh, Policy Center on the New South. Le présent Policy Brief tente d’apporter une réponse à la question de l’intérêt de l’Europe dans la réalisation du projet de Gazoduc Nigeria-Maroc. Six arguments sont avancés pour fonder l’existence et la pertinence d’un tel intérêt. Pourquoi l’Europe a-t-elle un intérêt stratégique dans la réalisation du Gazoduc Nigeria-Maroc ?
  • (Europe – USA) October 4, 2022. CEPA. The EU has proposed new rules to govern data use, artificial intelligence, social media content, and online marketplaces. Brussels has already approved major legislation on privacy and competition policy. Meanwhile, Washington lags far behind. CEPA’s Digital Innovation Initiative (DII) is tracking major developments in transatlantic tech policy below. TRACKING TECH POLICY: Transatlantic Efforts To Regulate the Net
  • (Germany) October 5, 2022. IFO. More German companies are planning to raise their prices than in the previous month, finds the ifo Institute’s latest survey. For the economy as a whole, price expectations for the coming months stood at 53.5 points in September, up from 48.1 (seasonally adjusted) points in August. For food, the indicator stood at a full 100 points, up from 96.9 (seasonally adjusted) points in August. “Unfortunately, this probably means the wave of inflation isn’t about to subside,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo. “Especially when it comes to gas and electricity, the price pipeline is not yet exhausted.”. More German Companies Plan to Increase Prices
  • (Germany) October 4, 2022. OECD. Germany needs to adopt a more agile, risk-tolerant and experimental approach to innovation policy if it is to continue to lead in its historical core industries such as automotive manufacturing, machinery, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, and be a champion of the industries of tomorrow, according to a new OECD report. Current crises underline the need for Germany to overhaul innovation policy to ensure its industries remain competitive, says OECD
  • (Hungary) October 5, 2022. Aaron Schwartzbaum, András Tóth-Czifra, Márta Pardavi, Foreign Policy Research Institute. How did Hungary stray from the liberal democratic path? What does that mean in practice? And what explains its contrarian position on Russia within the EU? Andras Toth-Czifra and Marta Pardavi join Aaron to discuss all things Hungary. Stuck in the Magyar: Why is Hungary the “Bad Boy” of Europe?
  • (Iran) October 5, 2022. Maysam Bizaer, Middle East Institute. Furious and impassioned protests spread across dozens of Iranian cities following the tragic death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in mid-September. Amini was arrested by the infamous Iranian “morality police” — Guidance Patrol — on Sept. 16, for allegedly “improperly” wearing her hijab. She died in their custody two days later, with signs of bruises on her face and body. Iran’s rising Generation Z at the forefront of protests
  • (Iran) October 5, 2022. Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Nicholas Carl, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Anti-regime protests seemingly subsided in extent and size on October 5. Iran Crisis Update, October 5
  • (Japan – China) October 5, 2022.  Stephen Nagy, East Asia Forum. As a ‘cold peace’ settles between Japan and China, both countries are working towards a pragmatic, if not awkward, coexistence. Okinawa will continue to play a pivotal role in enhancing Japanese and US deterrence capabilities vis-a-vis China following Governor of Okinawa Prefecture Denny Tamaki’s re-election on 11 September 2022.  Okinawa’s elections expose problems with military coexistence
  • (Malaysia) October 6, 2022. Björn Dressel, East Asia Forum. On 23 August 2022, Malaysia’s top court unanimously made Najib Razak the first former Malaysian prime minister to be jailed. It upheld his graft conviction and the 12-year jail sentence for looting investments from Malaysia’s 1MDB state fund. Najib’s verdict spells judicial change in Malaysia
  • (Middle East) October 4, 2022. Melissa Horvath, Middle East Institute. The strategic relationship between the United States and Gulf Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, has experienced its share of ups and downs in recent years. Despite the highs and lows, the foundation of U.S.-Arab relations rests on many decades of security cooperation and military assistance. Is Red Sands the future of Middle East defense cooperation?
  • (Myanmar) October 3, 2022. Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, United States Institute of Peace. Serious combat has resumed in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, despite a continuing de facto cease-fire declared by the military just before its coup last year. Unlike previous rounds of fighting in Rakhine that could be viewed as a localized internal conflict, the renewed violence is taking place in the context of a nationwide civil war triggered by the coup, and its consequences are spreading far beyond the state’s borders. The resumption of war in Rakhine State, in short, could be a hinge on which the future of the resistance’s self-described “Spring Revolution” will turn. Its progression bears close watching. Insurgents in Myanmar’s Rakhine State Return to War on the Military
  • (North Korea – Japan) October 5, 2022. Victor Cha, Ellen Kim, Andy Lim, CSIS. On October 3, 2022, North Korea fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), Hwasong-12, over the Japanese archipelago into the Pacific Ocean. According to reports, the missile was launched from Mupyong-ri in Jagang Province, located near the North Korean border with China.  The missile flew over 2,850 miles east of Japan and demonstrated a capability to reach the U.S. island of Guam from Pyongyang, just like the September 2017 Hwasong-12 test that overflew Japan. North Korea Tests Missile over Japan
  • (Poland – UK) October 5, 2022. Andrew Chuter and Jaroslaw Adamowski, Defense News. Britain and Poland are investigating possible cooperation in the development of a surface-launched, long-range missile in the latest step towards strengthening their ties in the defense sector. UK, Poland to pool missile development for their land, naval forces
  • (Russia) October 5, 2022. , CEPA. Russia may now be in an era of irreversible decline. That anyway is what the long-term trends indicate.  The Russian Double — Defeat and Decline
  • (Russia – Pakistan) October 5, 2022. Syed Fazl-e-Haider, The Jamestown Foundation. On September 15, Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan, declared Pakistan as one of Moscow’s primary partners in Southeast Asia. As the Russian leader put it, “I would like to note that we see Pakistan as a priority partner in Southeast Asia as well as the continent as a whole. Relations between our countries are developing absolutely positively, and we are pleased about that” (Kremlin.ru, September 15). Putin Sees Pakistan as Russia’s Priority Partner in Southeast Asia
  • (Russia – Ukraine) October 5, 2022. IAEA. The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Mariano Grossi, said he will engage in consultations with the relevant authorities following reports today that Russia plans to supervise operations of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Update 112 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine
  • (Russia – Ukraine) October 5, 2022. Crisis Group. The UN General Assembly will convene soon to discuss Russia’s planned annexation of four Ukrainian regions. With many non-Western states wary of taking sides, Ukraine’s friends would be wise to seek affirmation of sovereignty and territorial integrity principles rather than condemnation of the Kremlin. Reaffirming Ukraine’s Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity at the UN
  • (Russia – Ukraine) October 5, 2022. Vladimir Socor, The Jamestown Foundation. On October 4, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy released a decree effectively ruling out negotiations with Russia’s incumbent president. Technically, Zelenskyy’s decree confers legal force on the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council’s (NSDC, or in Ukrainian, RNBO) September 30 decision, which “determin[ed] that holding negotiations with the Russian Federation’s President Vladimir Putin is impossible.” Zelenskyy’s decree entered into force on the day of its release (President.gov.ua, October 4). Zelenskyy Bans Negotiations With Putin
  • (Russia – Ukraine) October 5, 2022. CSIS. Concerns about the scale and reach of Moscow’s disinformation capabilities have been mounting for years. Yet the war in Ukraine – and the online discourse surrounding that war – arguably demonstrates that the information landscape has shifted, and that new opportunities and methods exist for countering disinformation machines. Not only has the Ukrainian government demonstrated a masterful ability to shape the international narratives surrounding the war, so has the North Atlantic Fella Organization (#NAFO). NAFO (official Twitter account: @Official_NAFO) is an organic, online gaggle of pro-Ukraine supporters that has gained the attention of policymakers and global leaders for their creative use of digital media to take on key sources of Russian disinformation. #NAFO and Winning the Information War: Lessons Learned from Ukraine
  • (Russia – Ukraine) October 5, 2022. Karolina Hird, Katherine Lawlor, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Ukraine’s northern Kharkiv counteroffensive has not yet culminated after one month of successful operations and is now advancing into western Luhansk Oblast. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 5
  • (Russia – Ukraine) October 5, 2022. Josephine Wolff, Brookings. When Russian forces invaded Ukraine earlier this year, many observers believed that the conflict would be marked by overwhelming use of the Kremlin’s cyberweapons. Possessing a technically sophisticated cadre of hackers and toolkits to attack digital infrastructure, the Kremlin, according to this line of thinking, would deploy these weapons in an effort to cripple the Ukrainian government and deliver a decisive advantage on the battlefield. The actual experience of cyberwar in Ukraine has been far more mixed: While Russia has used its cyber capabilities, these digital forays have been far less successful or aggressive than many observers had predicted at the outset of the war. How do we know when cyber defenses are working?
  • (Sudan) October 3, 2022. Benjamin Oestericher, Foreign Policy Research Institute. In October 2021, Sudan’s civilian government was overthrown in a military coup. The coup marked the conclusion of the two-year experiment in democracy for the country, which was ignited by a 2018 protest movement that ended the notorious rule of President Omar al-Bashir. The event is a setback for Sudan and its supporters in Washington who had invested significant diplomatic capital in the country’s democratic transition. Helping Put Sudan’s Democratic Transition Back on Track
  • (Timor-Leste – Indonesia) October 6, 2022. Fidelis Leite Magalhães, The Interpreter. In July, Indonesian President Joko Widodo received President José Ramos-Horta for the first state visit of the Timor-Leste leader’s term. Both made proposals to deepen economic ties and urged for the establishment of a cross-border economic zone. Such a program has the potential to be groundbreaking because it allows both countries to test and develop novel policies in the effort to build a high-performance economy. These policies are the key features of successful development in advanced economies and in the impressive catch-up trajectory of East and Southeast Asia.  A free trade zone for Timor-Leste and Indonesia
  • (Turkey) October 4, 2022. Seren Selvin Korkmaz, Middle East Institute. Turkey has undergone a major economic, social, and political transformation during the two decades of Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) rule. Despite its early democratization efforts during the European Union (EU) accession negotiations and various political and judicial reforms, the AKP has since become the main driver of rising autocratization in Turkey. The Strategies and Struggles of the Turkish Opposition under Autocratization
  • (Turkey) October 4, 2022. Gönül Tol, Howard Eissenstat, Middle East Institute. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has intensified the role of Islam in the public sphere. Successive purges and crackdowns have resulted in a dismal human rights record. And Turkey, never really a beacon of liberal democracy, has now become one of the most prominent examples of democratic backsliding. Turkish Views: Crisis and Opportunities for Turkey in 2023
  • (USA) October 5, 2022.  Stephen Losey, Defense News. The Department of the Air Force said it needs to adopt more fuel-efficient aircraft designs, reduce its carbon footprint and energy consumption, and modernize its infrastructure and facilities to withstand extreme weather under its new plan to address climate change. Blended-wing tanker, nuke reactors, electric cars in USAF climate plan
  • (USA) October 5, 2022. Stephen Losey, Defense News. With no end in sight for the grounding of virtually the entire fleet of older C-130H Hercules, the Air Force is turning to other aircraft and trying to find other workarounds to keep its mobility missions moving. No end in sight on C-130H groundings; other planes fill in on mobility
  • (USA) October 5, 2022. Courtney Albon, Defense News. Last fall, the U.S. Space Force gave defense companies an unprecedented look at its initial plan to make missile warning satellites more resilient against potential threats from China. Space Force’s digital push focuses on ‘Spaceverse’
  • (Vietnam) October 6, 2022. , , The Strategist. Geography influences the strategic choices of all countries, but Vietnam is an interesting case of a ‘swing’ state in comparative grand-strategy terms. The country occupies the eastern part of the Indochinese Peninsula, with an elongated coastline of 3,260 kilometres facing the South China Sea. Vietnam also sits unambiguously in continental Asia, sharing a 1,300-kilometre border with China, as well as abutting Cambodia and Laos. This duality in Vietnam’s situation, straddling Southeast Asia’s geostrategic fault line, gives it unusual flexibility to develop a continental or maritime orientation. Despite a strong landwards pull in Vietnam’s history, Hanoi has latterly and perhaps decisively adopted a maritime course, though the country’s grand strategy remains dynamic and is actively debated among observers. Why a maritime focus is vital for Vietnam’s security

 

Marco Emanuele
Marco Emanuele è appassionato di cultura della complessità, cultura della tecnologia e relazioni internazionali. Approfondisce il pensiero di Hannah Arendt, Edgar Morin, Raimon Panikkar. Marco ha insegnato Evoluzione della Democrazia e Totalitarismi, è l’editor di The Global Eye e scrive per The Science of Where Magazine. Marco Emanuele is passionate about complexity culture, technology culture and international relations. He delves into the thought of Hannah Arendt, Edgar Morin, Raimon Panikkar. He has taught Evolution of Democracy and Totalitarianisms. Marco is editor of The Global Eye and writes for The Science of Where Magazine.

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