LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
USA: guerra ai deepfake. La paura è un caos politico. Fuori legge i falsi robocaller elettorali (Marzia Giglioli)
La democrazia muore in difesa / Democracy dies in defense (Marco Emanuele)
L’onnipotenza che uccide / The omnipotence that kills (Marco Emanuele)
Il ‘braccio di ferro’ tra il New York Times e ChatGPT (Marzia Giglioli)
Vocazione alla responsabilità / Vocation for responsibility (Marco Emanuele)
Noi e l’intelligenza artificiale. Serve una nuova narrazione (Marzia Giglioli)
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Perspectives
Autonomous Weapons – (Konstantinos Grivas – BESA Center) The war in Ukraine is acting as a super-accelerator in the development of low-cost, low-tech, mass-produced robotic military systems – robot armies, in other words – by actors with little financial or technological ability. One of the biggest questions weighing on the future global and regional balance of power is who will be the first to link these robot armies to artificial intelligence, which would allow them to operate autonomously. The West is possessed by phobias and obsessions that hinder it from adopting such systems. By contrast, forces that place a strong emphasis on the development of asymmetric capabilities – including both state and non-state actors hostile to the West – have absolutely no such inhibitions, creating a dangerous potential new reality.
The Coming Storm of Autonomous War Robots and the West’s Dangerous Phobias (besacenter.org)
Autonomous Weapons – (Paul O’Neill, Sam Cranny-Evans, Sarah Ashbridge – RUSI) The proliferation of lethal autonomous weapon systems is inevitable, given the availability of the underpinning technology and the benefits that such systems bring to some users.
Assessing Autonomous Weapons as a Proliferation Risk | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Ukraine and Gaza – (John Raine – IISS) The Gaza war has fuelled geopolitical trends that compromise Ukraine’s position, and with which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy must contend if Ukraine is to survive.
China
(Sunny Cheung, Arran Hope, Peter Mattis – The Jamestown Foundation) WuXi AppTec, a major Chinese biotechnology and pharmaceutical firm, claimed that the company has not, does not, and will not pose a national security risk to any country in response to new legislation introduced in the US Congress. The company’s claims are undermined by WuXi Apptec’s network of relationships with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), involvement in the Military-Civil Fusion Development Strategy, and alignment with the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) national development plans. CCP leaders have stated that increasing the PRC’s scientific and technological power is key to global influence and long-term economic development. Biotechnology is one of the strategic industries prioritized in PRC economic planning. WuXi AppTec and its subsidiaries’ track record with handling genomic data is cause for privacy concerns, especially given the company’s known collaboration with the CCP and the PLA.
Red Genes: Assessing WuXi AppTec’s Ties to the Party-Army-State – Jamestown
European Union
(Emily Taylor – Chatham House) After an eight-year negotiation, the EU has adopted a new legal framework –known as the eEvidence Regulation – to enable the preservation and sharing of electronic evidence between US platforms and EU law enforcement, as well as between EU member states.
Near East
1 – (Johanna Moore, Kathryn Tyson, Amin Soltani, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Talia Tayoun, Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War) Palestinian fighters continued to infiltrate Gaza City on February 9, where they are attacking Israeli forces. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Mujahideen Brigades fighters conducted a combined attack that targeted a group of Israeli soldiers and vehicles near Eastern Cemetary, between eastern Jabalia and the Israel-Gaza Strip border. Hamas and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine—a leftist group aligned with Hamas in the current war—fired rockets and mortars targeting Israeli forces operating in Gaza City. Israeli forces also directed an airstrike targeting Palestinian fighters near a Hamas military position during clearing operations in the northern Gaza Strip.
Iran Update, February 9, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
2 – (Liran Antebi, Or Adar – INSS) It’s small, agile, accurate – and deadly: the FPV drone, which is accessible to almost everyone and available for purchase on various shopping sites, has been used for some time by both sides in the war between Russia and Ukraine and has lead to huge damage and losses to both sides. The IDF must prepare and find ways to deal with this weapon, which may come to the Middle East in a big way in the near future.
FPV Drones: From the Ukrainian Battlefield to the Middle East | INSS
North Korea
1 – (Bradley O. Babson – 38 North) Kim Jong Un ended 2023 sounding confident, both about his positioning of North Korea’s military security and the prospects for economic recovery after extended border closure period due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
2 – (Robert L. Carlin, Rachel Minyoung Lee – 38 North) North Korea’s academic journals provide key insights into how the country is thinking about its own trajectory—what ideas are being explored, tested and supported. In some cases, they can also reflect a sort of ongoing debate within the country, among the technocrats and academics, about the pros and cons of various policies. However, these journals are published only in Korean language and can be difficult to access outside of the country.
Understanding Kim Jong Un’s Economic Policymaking – 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
Pakistan
(Atlantic Council) It was a shock to the system. Pakistan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party was barred from formally running nominees under its own name, but PTI-aligned independent candidates nonetheless massively outperformed expectations in national elections on February 8, leading in a plurality, but not a majority, of seats in the National Assembly. Independent candidates representing PTI, the party of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan, received strong support from young voters in an election marred by a violent campaign season and election-day disruptions in internet and phone service. With uncertainty over whether PTI-aligned independents or former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), or PMLN will be able to form a coalition, what does the uncertainty surrounding the election mean for Pakistan’s future? And what challenges will the next Pakistani government face?
Russia
1 – (Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Following the protests in the Republic of Bashkortostan in the middle of January, Moscow and Ufa have increased repression in the republic. Their joint willingness to repress the republic demonstrates that they are ready to do whatever is necessary to suppress any expression of anger from the Bashkirs, sending a message to all other non-Russians that if they protest, they too will face the unrestricted power of the state (Verstka.media, February 5).
Repression in Bashkortostan Buys Moscow Only a Brief Respite – Jamestown
2 – (Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) A resurgence of Cossack militarism is occurring in Russia, evidenced through proposed legislation to the State Duma to establish a reserve army. Cossack leaders announce plans for new volunteer battalions and professional special forces units, leveraging experienced fighters from the ongoing conflict and emphasizing historical and cultural ties to military service. Efforts to professionalize Cossack societies include the establishment of a Cossack-focused academy and the promotion of higher education with a militaristic component, suggesting a broader societal indoctrination into militaristic values and potential mobilization readiness.
Cossacks Plan More Military Aggrandizement – Jamestown
Russia – China
(Antonia Colibasanu – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s increasing reliance on China for trade underscores potential vulnerabilities due to China’s economic woes and the yuan’s currency controls. This is prompting Russia to aggressively pursue the digital ruble. Despite Western sanctions, Russia-China trade has increased, enhancing bilateral commerce and financial cooperation. Trade is also increasingly denominated in yuan and rubles, furthering the two countries’ goals of de-dollarization. Russia’s economic growth relies heavily on state spending for military purposes, potentially leading to inflation and social unrest. The push for a digital ruble aims to manage these challenges, but highlights long-term economic vulnerabilities.
Russia’s Dependence on China May Not Be Enough to Save Economy – Jamestown
Sudan
(Anette Hoffmann – Clingendael) The conflict in Sudan has a substantial impact on the country’s food system and hinders people’s ability to cope with food shortages. As the country shows the worst hunger level ever recorded during the harvest season (from October to February), which is usually a period when food is more available, the severity and scale of hunger in the coming lean season (mid-2024) will be catastrophic.
USA – China
(Ryan Naraine – Security Affairs) A congressional investigation finds that US venture capital firms invested billions in Chinese technology companies in semiconductor, AI and cybersecurity, sectors that are a threat to national security.
Lawmakers Want Clampdown on American VCs Funding Chinese Tech Companies – SecurityWeek
Venezuela – Essequibo
(Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Henry Ziemer, Rubi Bledsoe, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Jennifer Jun – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Tensions between Venezuela and neighboring Guyana appear to have cooled since the December 2023 referendum, in which the authoritarian government of Nicolás Maduro claimed Venezuela had a mandate to annex the disputed Essequibo territory administered by Guyana. Under international pressure to peacefully resolve the crisis, not least from South American heavyweight Brazil, Presidents Maduro and Irfaan Ali of Guyana met in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines on December 14, 2023, and signed the Argyle Declaration.
War in Ukraine
1 – (Richard Haass – Council on Foreign Relations) What Ukraine and its Western backers have accomplished in the wake of Russia’s February 2022 invasion is extraordinary. But with congressional Republicans blocking further US military aid, even as Russia begins to make gains on the battlefield, there is reason to be concerned about what the war’s third year will bring.
Will Ukraine Survive? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
2 – (Angelica Evans, Riley Bailey, Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, Fredrick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War) The Russian online community noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin did not offer any new information in his interview with American media personality Tucker Carlson and simply repeated longstanding Kremlin talking points about Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine for American audiences.
3 – (Samantha de Bendern – Chatham House) In 2019 Vladislav Surkov, a close advisor to Putin and one of his chief ideologues, wrote: ‘Foreign politicians attribute to Russia interference in elections and referendums across the planet. In fact, the matter is even more serious – Russia is interfering in their brains, and they do not know what to do with their own altered consciousness’. Surkov has since been disgraced, but Russia’s insidious information warfare escalated to new heights on 8 February with the broadcast of US pundit Tucker Carlson’s interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
4 – (Miranda Priebe, Samuel Charap – RAND Corporation) No matter when the hot phase of the current war ends, Russia will remain a threat both to Ukraine and to the interests of the United States and its allies. How, then, should the United States deal with Russia after the war? How should postwar considerations affect wartime policy?
The Day After: Postwar U.S. Strategy Toward Russia | RAND
5 – (Franz-Stefan Gady, Michael Kofman – IISS) As the Russia–Ukraine war enters its third year, Ukraine faces a daunting task: how to restore its military advantage. The 2023 summer offensive, which dragged into autumn, was unsuccessful. Planning for the offensive appears to have been overly optimistic and poorly connected to how the Ukrainian armed forces actually fight, despite numerous analyses warning that the operation would prove costly and difficult, and that manoeuvre warfare was unlikely to attain a quick breakthrough against a well-prepared defence.
Making Attrition Work: A Viable Theory of Victory for Ukraine (iiss.org)
Western Indian Ocean
(Christian Bueger – RUSI) With the Houthi threat, the recent resurfacing of piracy, and continuing patterns of blue crime contributing to growing insecurity in the Western Indian Ocean, fresh efforts are needed to coordinate and deconflict the patchwork of naval operations in the region.
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
