AFRICA
Artificial intelligence creeps on to the African Battlefield. Nathaniel Allen, Marian “Ify” Okpali, Brookings: Even as the world’s leading militaries race to adopt artificial intelligence in anticipation of future great power war, security forces in one of the world’s most conflict-prone regions are opting for a more measured approach. In Africa, AI is gradually making its way into technologies such as advanced surveillance systems and combat drones, which are being deployed to fight organized crime, extremist groups, and violent insurgencies. Though the long-term potential for AI to impact military operations in Africa is undeniable, AI’s impact on organized violence has so far been limited. These limits reflect both the novelty and constraints of existing AI-enabled technology. Artificial Intelligence Creeps on to the African Battlefield
CHINA – AUSTRALIA
Lessons from the China-Australia Conflict. C. Raja Mohan, Valdai Discussion Club: In the middle of the last decade Australia’s growing partnership with China was widely seen as one of the most robust in Asia. Yet, within a short span of three years, it has become emblematic of China’s troubled relations with its Asian neighbors. Despite being a treaty ally of the United States and close military partner in all American ventures of global intervention, Australia demonstrated extraordinary enthusiasm for the engagement with China since the end of the Cold War. Trade was booming as China became Australia’s most important export destination. The growing presence of Chinese diaspora in Australia, large flows of students and tourists, widening consultations on regional and international issues and a deepening level of political comfort between the Australian political class and China saw Canberra become a major strategic partner for Beijing. Lessons from the China-Australia Conflict
ETHIOPIA
Both Sides Could Lose in the Conflict in Ethiopia. Ivan Loshkarev, Valdai Discussion Club: On a January day in 1900, Russian traveler and military officer Alexander Bulatovich was having a conversation with Emperor Menelik II of Ethiopia, during which he laid out his thoughts concerning public governance, the army and defending Ethiopia’s northern and northwestern borders. Bulatovich expressed his thoughts in the blunt manner of a military man, making many openly critical remarks. Bulatovich eventually allowed himself one criticism too many, causing the emperor to exclaim: “Why are you telling me these frightening things? What kind of advice is that? Just give me some advice, and leave that aside.”. Both Sides Could Lose in the Conflict in Ethiopia — Valdai Club
GLOBAL POVERTY
The evolution of global poverty, 1990-2030. Homi Kharas and Meagan Dooley, Brookings: The last 30 years have seen dramatic reductions in global poverty, spurred by strong catch-up growth in developing countries, especially in Asia. By 2015, some 729 million people, 10% of the population, lived under the $1.90 a day poverty line, greatly exceeding the Millennium Development Goal target of halving poverty. From 2012 to 2013, at the peak of global poverty reduction, the global poverty headcount fell by 130 million poor people. The evolution of global poverty, 1990-2030
INDIA
‘Make in India’ a work in progress. Aasheerwad Dwivedi, East Asia Forum: Historical experience presents ‘structural transformation’ as a necessary condition for achieving high economic growth in any country. The typical transformation path involves people moving from agriculture towards industries and then services, from low to high productivity sectors, and from villages to cities. To the sorrow of millions, India missed the bus in the 1960s and — unlike its Eastern neighbours such as China — followed its own atypical path. ‘Make in India’ a work in progress
IRAN – AZERBAIJAN
Tensions Deescalate Between Iran and Republic of Azerbaijan. Vali Kaleji, The Jamestown Foundation: Relations between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan underwent acute conflict and tension in September–October 2021. However, since mid-October, the two countries have endeavored to manage the frictions and reduce the disagreements in their relationship. Recently, on January 26, 2022, Azerbaijani Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov visited Tehran and met with his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, as well as President Ibrahim Raisi (Caspian News, January 26). Tensions Deescalate Between Iran and Republic of Azerbaijan
MEXICO
Mexican state security chief arrested on torture charges. Lizbeth Diaz, Reuters: Mexican federal agents arrested on Wednesday the security chief of the central state of Aguascalientes on charges of torture, the attorney general’s office told Reuters. Mexican state security chief arrested on torture charges
MOLDOVA
Moldovan Government Lacks Strategy to Deal With Effects of Russia-Triggered Security Crisis. Dumitru Minzarari, The Jamestown Foundation: On January 27, during an interview with Moldovan public radio, Prime Minster Natalia Gavrilita revealed her cabinet’s intention to adjust the 2022 state budget and increase the funding for the National Army (Newsmaker.md, January 27). This is rather unprecedented for Moldova, which for decades has seen its defense spending either decreasing or stagnating at slightly above 0.3 percent of GDP—a level that puts the country at the bottom of the list when it comes to per capita defense expenditures in Europe. Gavrilita did not reveal how much extra funding will be directed toward the Ministry of Defense. Moldovan Government Lacks Strategy to Deal With Effects of Russia-Triggered Security Crisis
MYANMAR
Cambodia says non-political Myanmar rep invited to ASEAN meeting. Reuters: Cambodia’s foreign ministry said on Thursday that a non-political representative from Myanmar had been invited to attend a meeting of Southeast Asian foreign ministers later this month rather than the country’s military-appointed foreign minister. Cambodia says non-political Myanmar rep invited to ASEAN meeting
One year since Myanmar coup, U.N. Security Council backs ‘will of the people’. Reuters: The U.N. Security Council said on Wednesday it was deeply concerned by a continuing state of emergency imposed by the military in Myanmar and pushed for talks to resolve the situation in line “with the will and interests of the people.”. One year since Myanmar coup, U.N. Security Council backs ‘will of the people’
PAKISTAN
Insurgents attack Pakistani bases; army says one soldier, four attackers killed. Gul Yousafzai, Asif Shahzad, Reuters: Separatist insurgents in the Pakistani province of Balochistan have attacked two military bases, killing one soldier while losing four of their own men, the army said, in the latest violence in the resource-rich province where China is investing. Insurgents attack Pakistani bases; army says one soldier, four attackers killed
RUSSIA – AFRICA
The future of Russia-Africa relations. Joseph Siegle, Brookings: Russia has been aggressively pursuing its strategic objectives in Africa in recent years—securing a foothold in the eastern Mediterranean, gaining naval port access in the Red Sea, expanding natural resource extraction opportunities, displacing Western influence, and promoting alternatives to democracy as a regional norm. The future of Russia-Africa relations
RUSSIA – AUSTRALIA
Could Russia and Australia Become Allies on Climate Change? Stanislav Kuvaldin, Carnegie Moscow Center: The global West is generally considered to be the part of the world that is most concerned about tackling climate change. In reality, there’s no unity among Western nations. The Australian government, for example, says openly that it’s not prepared to take drastic measures to reduce the carbon footprint of its economy. The main reason for this is that raw materials, in particular coal, form a major part of Australia’s exports, leaving the country little room for maneuver. Could Russia and Australia Become Allies on Climate Change?
RUSSIA – BELARUS
Allied Resolve 2022: Moscow’s Maskirovka Operation. Roger McDermott, The Jamestown Foundation: Russia’s Armed Forces continue to arrive in Belarus for the bilateral large-scale military exercise Soyuznaya Reshimost (Allied Resolve) 2022, officially scheduled for February 10–20. These deployments, which add to the wider Russian force buildup in proximity to Ukraine’s borders (see EDM, January 26), involves moving equipment, hardware, weapons systems and military personnel from the Eastern Military District (MD) as well as from other MDs. However, the size and scale of the movement of forces for what is cast as a joint military exercise appears to be conceptualized in Moscow as a maskirovka (military deception) operation. Details regarding the force deployment indicate that the Russian military planning transcends a standard exercise model. Russian Armed Forces units scheduled to participate in Allied Resolve 2022 will complete their deployment and combat readiness checks by February 9, prior to commencing the “exercise” (Mil.ru, February 1). Allied Resolve 2022: Moscow’s Maskirovka Operation
RUSSIA – UKRAINE
Great Power Politics and the Ukrainian Issue. Timofei Bordachev, Valdai Discussion Club: The movement of troops is combined with the threat of economic sanctions, and the appeal to international law and institutions are combined with clear examples of disregard for weak states. Indeed, it was worthwhile for international politics to accumulate such experience and tools over several centuries in order for us to wait for a crisis where all these measures would become available to an interested observer. Great Power Politics and the Ukrainian Issue
The West Has Responded to Russia’s Ultimatum. Is It Enough? Alexander Baunov, Carnegie Moscow Center: The West has provided Moscow with the written responses it had demanded to Russia’s draft agreement on European security. As expected, the responses rejected the main demands of an end to NATO expansion and retreat from Eastern Europe, but did offer some hope on secondary issues. Now the ball is in Russia’s court: will it appreciate the low-key but substantial concessions offered by the West, or refuse them, paving the way (or so the world expects) for a war with Ukraine? The West Has Responded to Russia’s Ultimatum. Is It Enough?
Russia’s assault on Ukraine and the international order: Assessing and bolstering the Western response. Fiona Hill, Brookings: This current critical phase of the crisis in Ukraine has been manufactured by Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin. Russian troops, artillery, armored vehicles, tanks and other equipment encircle Ukraine: they are along the Russian border with Ukraine and in the annexed territory of Crimea as well as in Belarus, threatening a major military confrontation. It is hard to identify a specific trigger for Russia’s decision in 2021 to move thousands of personnel and their armaments close to Ukraine or for the sudden escalation of events in December 2021. The Kremlin’s policy toward Ukraine has towed a hard line since the early 2000s; and we can certainly point to an accumulation of factors since Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and set off the ongoing war in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region that has now cost the lives of more than 13,000 Ukrainians. Nonetheless, the timing seems in many respects driven more by Vladimir Putin’s own political predilections and perceptions of developments and reactions in Ukraine, Europe, and the United States rather than by events on the ground in the contested Donbas region. Russia’s assault on Ukraine and the international order: Assessing and bolstering the Western response
UAE
UAE says it blocked drone attack, little-known group claims responsibility. Reuters: The United Arab Emirates said it intercepted three drones that entered its airspace over unpopulated areas early on Wednesday in the fourth such attack on the Gulf commercial and tourism hub in the past few weeks. The first three assaults, including a missile attack on Monday during a visit by Israel’s president, were launched by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis in an escalation with a military coalition led by Saudi Arabia and which includes the UAE. UAE says it blocked drone attack, little-known group claims responsibility
USA
Hard landing: Why the 5G rollout was so contentious and what we can learn from it. Dorothy Robyn, Brookings: Donald Trump deserves credit for championing the Federal Communication Commission’s (FCC) successful C-band auction and the 5G wireless broadband service it enabled. However, the recent rollout of 5G has been marred because of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) concerns that should have been dealt with early on by the Trump Administration. Rather than facilitating a process for resolving those concerns, the Trump White House treated the FAA as a “swamp creature” to be vanquished. (Who knew wireless policy could be an opportunity to drain the swamp?) Moreover, the Trump Administration and its FCC failed to use a market mechanism that has helped resolve other spectrum disputes and that could have put this dispute in the rear-view mirror. Hard landing: Why the 5G rollout was so contentious and what we can learn from it
Narrowing the racial wealth gap using the EITC and CTC. Nora Cahill and William G. Gale, Brookings: The wealth gap between Black and white Americans is persistent and substantial. Data show that the median white household has at least 10 times the wealth of the median Black household; average wealth in white households is six or seven times the average wealth in Black households. Even after controlling for observable variables, a substantial gap remains. The racial wealth gap has grown over the last 30 years rather than narrowing. Narrowing the racial wealth gap using the EITC and CTC
Biden’s first-year judicial appointments—prospects for 2022 and beyond. Russell Wheeler, Brookings: The first and second posts in this mini-series described how President Biden’s 42 first-year district and court of appeals confirmations are second only to President Kennedy’s. Biden used early and tactical nominations and had (and needed) a united, filibuster-free Senate majority. His appointees filled proportionately more judgeships than most recent presidents and showed striking demographic and vocational diversity. Biden’s first-year judicial appointments—prospects for 2022 and beyond
USA – AFGHANISTAN
U.S. advice to banks: OK to transfer aid money to Afghanistan. Michelle Nichols, Reuters: International banks can transfer money to Afghanistan for humanitarian purposes, and aid groups are allowed to pay teachers and healthcare workers at state-run institutions without fear of breaching sanctions on the Taliban, the United States said on Wednesday. U.S. advice to banks: OK to transfer aid money to Afghanistan
USA – ASIA – INDO PACIFIC
Biden plans ‘several’ stops on Asia trip, region to remain focus -U.S. official. David Brunnstrom and Michel Martina, Reuters: Joe Biden plans several stops during a visit to Asia this spring, which will be his first to the region as president and include a summit with three key regional allies in Japan, a senior administration official told Reuters. The official brushed off questions about whether the Ukraine crisis could distract the administration’s attention from Asia, saying: “We continue prioritizing our Indo-Pacific focus and will have more to come.”. Biden plans ‘several’ stops on Asia trip, region to remain focus -U.S. official
How the United States can strengthen its position in the Indo-Pacific. Ryan Hass, Brookings: “America is back,” Joe Biden proclaimed in his first address as president to a global audience. Over the year that followed, the Biden administration delivered a mixed bag in its approach to the Indo-Pacific — several bold strategic strokes, greater than expected continuity with the Trump administration on China policy, and timidity on trade policy. How the United States can strengthen its position in the Indo-Pacific
USA – SYRIA
U.S. special forces launch counter-terrorism raid in northwest Syria. Suleiman Al-Khalidi, Reuters: U.S. Special Operations forces successfully carried out a counter-terrorism mission in northwest Syria on Thursday, the Pentagon said, adding there were no U.S. casualties but gave no further details. Residents of the northwest Syrian town of Atmeh and rebels fighting the Syrian government earlier reported several civilian casualties in the two-hour operation, saying the raid was believed to have targeted a suspected al Qaeda-affiliated jihadist. U.S. special forces launch counter-terrorism raid in northwest Syria
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