BUSSOLA GEOSTRATEGICA-CAMMINO COMPLESSO
GEOSTRATEGIC COMPASS – COMPLEX PATH
BOUSSOLE GÉOSTRATÉGIQUE – PARCOURS COMPLEXE
Ciò che dovrebbe essere sempre più chiaro è che il “giudizio storico”, capacità politico-strategica di comprendere il mondo e i mondi, dovrebbe fondarsi sul pensiero complesso. Eppure domina ancora l’approccio lineare, separante, escludente. Così come riconosciamo il male che percorre il mondo, e che troppo spesso riguarda anche la irresponsabilità di chi crede di essere il centro della storia, sappiamo che nessuno può essere “giudice ultimo”. Lo sappiamo per la guerra in Ucraina (senza dimenticare l’aggressore russo) e per le tante guerre, e crisi degenerative, che ci attraversano in questo terzo millennio di grandissimi avanzamenti e di altrettanti arrestramenti. Non è una novità sostenere che il progresso porti dentro di sé il regresso, così come che l’ordine si formi nel disordine. La novità del nostro tempo, nel quale si consuma la transizione da un ordine che non c’è più a un ordine che non c’è ancora, è la forma che potrebbe assumere l’ordine che ancora non vediamo. Siamo nel pieno della possibilità che l’uomo si è dato di andare verso un orizzonte tragico: non pesa solo la minaccia nucleare ma anche l’innovazione tecnologica, in particolare l’intelligenza artificiale con le altre tecnologie “disruptive” (mai neutre). Quest’ultima, per quanto ovvio, è anche foriera di grandi opportunità: ma il rischio per la vita umana, sottolineato dagli stessi produttori di tecnologia, è un elemento non più eludibile. Dentro la transizione per un nuovo ordine, allora, non possiamo compiere lo stesso errore che abbiamo fatto, negli ultimi decenni, nel laissez-faire agli spiriti animali del mercato e che ha generato buona parte dell’attuale insostenibilità: oggi il rischio è ben più alto e servono decisioni geostrategiche adeguate. A cominciare dal ripensamento per la rifondazione della politica in senso complesso.
(english version)
What should be increasingly clear is that ‘historical judgement’, a political-strategic ability to understand the world and worlds, should be based on complex thinking. Yet the linear, separating, exclusionary approach still dominates. Just as we recognise the evil that runs through the world, and which all too often also concerns the irresponsibility of those who believe they are the centre of history, we know that no one can be the ‘ultimate judge’. We know this from the war in Ukraine (not forgetting the Russian aggressor) and from the many wars, and degenerative crises, that criss-cross us in this third millennium of great advances and just as many setbacks. It is nothing new to argue that progress brings regress within itself, just as order is formed in disorder. What is new in our time, in which the transition from an order that no longer exists to an order that does not yet exist is taking place, is the form that the order we do not yet see could take. We are in the midst of the possibility that humanity has given itself of moving towards a tragic horizon: it is not only the nuclear threat that weighs heavily, but also technological innovation, in particular artificial intelligence with other ‘disruptive’ (never neutral) technologies. The latter, however obvious, is also a harbinger of great opportunities: but the risk to human life, emphasised by the technology producers themselves, is an element that can no longer be avoided. In the transition to a new order, then, we cannot make the same mistake that we have made in recent decades in laissez-faire to the animal spirits of the market and which has generated much of the current unsustainability: today the risk is much higher and appropriate geostrategic decisions are needed. Starting with rethinking the refounding of politics in a complex sense.
(version française)
Ce qui devrait être de plus en plus clair, c’est que le “jugement historique”, une capacité politico-stratégique à comprendre le monde et les mondes, devrait être basé sur une pensée complexe. Pourtant, l’approche linéaire, séparatrice et excluante domine toujours. Tout comme nous reconnaissons le mal qui traverse le monde et qui, trop souvent, concerne aussi l’irresponsabilité de ceux qui se croient au centre de l’histoire, nous savons que personne ne peut être le “juge ultime”. Nous le savons par la guerre en Ukraine (sans oublier l’agresseur russe) et par les nombreuses guerres et crises dégénératives qui nous traversent en ce troisième millénaire de grandes avancées et d’autant de reculs. Il n’est pas nouveau d’affirmer que le progrès entraîne la régression en lui-même, tout comme l’ordre se forme dans le désordre. Ce qui est nouveau à notre époque, où l’on passe d’un ordre qui n’existe plus à un ordre qui n’existe pas encore, c’est la forme que pourrait prendre cet ordre que nous ne voyons pas encore. Nous sommes au cœur de la possibilité que s’est donnée l’humanité d’aller vers un horizon tragique : ce n’est pas seulement la menace nucléaire qui pèse, mais aussi l’innovation technologique, en particulier l’intelligence artificielle avec d’autres technologies “disruptives” (jamais neutres). Cette dernière, aussi évidente soit-elle, est aussi porteuse de grandes opportunités : mais le risque pour la vie humaine, souligné par les producteurs de technologies eux-mêmes, est un élément qui ne peut plus être évité. Dans la transition vers un nouvel ordre, nous ne pouvons donc pas commettre la même erreur que celle commise au cours des dernières décennies en laissant faire les esprits animaux du marché et qui a généré une grande partie de l’insoutenabilité actuelle : aujourd’hui, le risque est beaucoup plus élevé et des décisions géostratégiques appropriées sont nécessaires. En commençant par repenser la refondation de la politique dans un sens complexe.
PROSPETTIVE GEOSTRATEGICHE DAI THINK TANK
GEOSTRATEGIC PERSPECTIVES FROM THINK TANK
PERSPECTIVES GÉOSTRATÉGIQUES DES THINK TANKS
Worlds
Australia – USA
Tristan Paci scrive dei segni di frustrazione da parte dell’Australia nei confronti della politica economica degli Stati Uniti – Tristan Paci writes of Australia’s signs of frustration with US economic policy – Tristan Paci évoque les signes de frustration de l’Australie à l’égard de la politique économique des États-Unis – America first, or everyone else second? | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
China – Central Asia
Il 18 e il 19 maggio si svolge il summit tra Cina e Paesi dell’Asia Centrale. Le relazioni sono in crescita, secondo Global Times – The summit between China and Central Asian countries takes place on 18 and 19 May. Relations are growing, according to Global Times – Le sommet entre la Chine et les pays d’Asie centrale se tient les 18 et 19 mai. Les relations se développent, selon le Global Times – High-level China-Central Asia Summit about to commence, ‘inevitable result’ as ties deepen – Global Times
China – Eritrea – Africa
Yang Sheng e Zhang Changyue scrivono della visita del Presidente dell’Eritrea a Pechino e del futuro delle relazioni tra i due Paesi e della Cina con l’Africa nell’attuale contesto geopolitico – Yang Sheng and Zhang Changyue write about the Eritrean President’s visit to Beijing and the future of relations between the two countries and China with Africa in the current geopolitical context – Yang Sheng et Zhang Changyue s’expriment sur la visite du président érythréen à Pékin et sur l’avenir des relations entre les deux pays et entre la Chine et l’Afrique dans le contexte géopolitique actuel – Sound China-Eritrea ties key to regional peace, international fairness: Xi – Global Times
China – Kazakhstan
Secondo Global Times, crescono i rapporti bilaterali tra Cina e Kazakistan. Nel 2022, il volume degli scambi ha superato i 31 miliardi di dollari – According to Global Times, bilateral relations between China and Kazakhstan are growing. In 2022, trade volume exceeded USD 31 billion – Selon le Global Times, les relations bilatérales entre la Chine et le Kazakhstan se développent. En 2022, le volume des échanges commerciaux a dépassé les 31 milliards d’USD – China, Kazakhstan vow to contribute to building China-Central Asia community with a shared future: Chinese ambassador – Global Times
China – Russia – Ukraine
La visita dell’inviato speciale della Cina per gli affari eurasiatici Li Hui in Ucraina, Polonia, Francia, Germania e Russia ha lo scopo, secondo Global Times, di contribuire a definire una soluzione politica alla guerra in Ucraina – The visit of China’s special envoy for Eurasian affairs Li Hui to Ukraine, Poland, France, Germany and Russia is intended, according to Global Times, to help define a political solution to the war in Ukraine – La visite de l’envoyé spécial de la Chine pour les affaires eurasiennes, Li Hui, en Ukraine, en Pologne, en France, en Allemagne et en Russie a pour but, selon le Global Times, d’aider à définir une solution politique à la guerre en Ukraine – China’s envoy kicks off visit amid intensified battle in Ukraine crisis – Global Times
Europe – Ukraine
Mark Leonard scrive delle prossime elezioni europee e dell’influsso della guerra in Ucraina sulla libertà dell’Europa – Mark Leonard writes about the upcoming European elections and the influence of the war in Ukraine on the freedom of Europe – Mark Leonard parle des prochaines élections européennes et de l’influence de la guerre en Ukraine sur la liberté de l’Europe – The Ukraine war and European identity | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
France
Vivienne Machi scrive che la Francia, in particolare Airbus e la Direction Générale de l’Armement, ha testato per la prima volta il dimostratore del sistema aereo senza pilota VSR700, tappa decisiva per lo sviluppo del drone marittimo di prossima generazione – Vivienne Machi writes that France, in particular Airbus and the Direction Générale de l’Armement, tested the VSR700 unmanned aerial system demonstrator for the first time, a decisive step in the development of the next-generation maritime drone – Vivienne Machi écrit que la France, en particulier Airbus et la Direction Générale de l’Armement, a testé pour la première fois le démonstrateur de système aérien sans pilote VSR700, une étape décisive dans le développement du drone maritime de nouvelle génération – Airbus SDAM maritime drone achieves milestone in French test (defensenews.com)
Germany
Asley Roque scrive che Berlino inizierà a ricevere, alla fine del 2025, altri 50 veicoli da combattimento di fanteria Puma. E’ stato siglato un accordo da 1,2 miliardi di dollari con l’industria – Asley Roque writes that Berlin will start receiving an additional 50 Puma infantry fighting vehicles at the end of 2025. A $1.2 billion deal has been signed with industry – Asley Roque écrit que Berlin commencera à recevoir 50 véhicules de combat d’infanterie Puma supplémentaires à la fin de 2025. Un accord de 1,2 milliard de dollars a été signé avec l’industrie – German military inks $1.2 billion deal for 50 Puma infantry fighting vehicles – Breaking Defense
Israel
Udi Dekel scrive delle operazioni di deterrenza di Israele contro la Jihad islamica a Gaza e del ruolo di Hamas – Udi Dekel writes about Israel’s deterrence operations against Islamic Jihad in Gaza and the role of Hamas – Udi Dekel s’exprime sur les opérations de dissuasion menées par Israël contre le Jihad islamique à Gaza et sur le rôle du Hamas – Operation Shield and Arrow: Hamas is the Primary Winner | INSS
Japan – G7
Mireya Solís spiega l’importanza del G7 di Hiroshima e di come Tokyo abbia incentrato la sua politica estera sulla promozione di una regione indo-pacifica libera e aperta – Mireya Solís explains the importance of the G7 in Hiroshima and how Tokyo has focused its foreign policy on promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific region – Mireya Solís explique l’importance du G7 à Hiroshima et la manière dont Tokyo a axé sa politique étrangère sur la promotion d’une région indo-pacifique libre et ouverte – Japan’s quiet leadership as it hosts the G7 summit in Hiroshima (brookings.edu)
Japan – WTO
Arata Kuno scrive che il 10 marzo 2023 il Giappone ha deciso di aderire al Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA), promosso da Unione Europea e Canada al fine di integrare il sistema di risoluzione delle controversie dell’OMC – Arata Kuno writes that on 10 March 2023, Japan decided to join the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA), promoted by the European Union and Canada to complement the WTO dispute settlement system – Arata Kuno écrit que le 10 mars 2023, le Japon a décidé de rejoindre le Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA), promu par l’Union européenne et le Canada pour compléter le système de règlement des différends de l’OMC – Japan’s joining MPIA an outside chance to boost momentum for WTO reform | East Asia Forum
Myanmar – Thailand – ASEAN
Adam Simpson e Nicholas Farrelly scrivono della drammatica situazione nel Myanmar e della possibilità che il nuovo corso politico in Thailandia modifichi le politiche dell’ASEAN rispetto al Myanmar – Adam Simpson and Nicholas Farrelly write about the dramatic situation in Myanmar and the possibility that the new political course in Thailand will change ASEAN’s policies towards Myanmar – Adam Simpson et Nicholas Farrelly évoquent la situation dramatique au Myanmar et la possibilité que la nouvelle orientation politique de la Thaïlande modifie les politiques de l’ASEAN à l’égard du Myanmar – Will the Thai election result change ASEAN’s approach to Myanmar? | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Pacific
Blake Johnson e Lucy Albiston scrivono della libertà dei media nei Paesi del Pacifico, in particolare in quelli insulari, e del necessario sostegno dei Paesi democratici – Blake Johnson and Lucy Albiston write about media freedom in Pacific countries, particularly island countries, and the necessary support of democratic countries – Blake Johnson et Lucy Albiston s’intéressent à la liberté des médias dans les pays du Pacifique, en particulier les pays insulaires, et au soutien nécessaire des pays démocratiques – Pacific media needs more support to protect the truth | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
South Korea – Indonesia – Australia
Natalie Sambhi scrive della strategia indo-pacifica di Seul e di come essa interagisca con gli interessi e le visioni di Indonesia e Australia – Natalie Sambhi writes about Seoul’s Indo-Pacific strategy and how it interacts with the interests and visions of Indonesia and Australia – Natalie Sambhi s’intéresse à la stratégie indo-pacifique de Séoul et à son interaction avec les intérêts et les visions de l’Indonésie et de l’Australie – How Indonesia and Australia view South Korea’s Indo-Pacific strategy (brookings.edu)
South Korea – Japan
Soyoung Kim scrive del futuro delle relazioni bilaterali tra Corea del Sud e Giappone – Soyoung Kim writes about the future of bilateral relations between South Korea and Japan – Soyoung Kim s’exprime sur l’avenir des relations bilatérales entre la Corée du Sud et le Japon – Strengthening progress in South Korea–Japan relations | East Asia Forum
Thailand
Susannah Patton scrive della vittoria del partito progressista thailandese Move Forward e dell’incerta stagione politica che si apre nel Paese – Susannah Patton writes about the victory of the Thai Progressive Party Move Forward and the uncertain political season ahead in the country – Susannah Patton évoque la victoire du parti progressiste thaïlandais Move Forward et l’incertitude de la saison politique qui s’annonce dans le pays – Thailand’s election: will the country move forward? | Lowy Institute
Turkey
Wang Qi esprime un punto di vista da Pechino sul primo turno delle presidenziali in Turchia – Wang Qi expresses a view from Beijing on the first round of the presidential elections in Turkey – Wang Qi exprime le point de vue de Pékin sur le premier tour des élections présidentielles en Turquie – Turkish presidential race heads to a runoff vote amid accusations of external interference – Global Times
Le elezioni presidenziali si decideranno con il ballottaggio del 28 maggio – The presidential election will be decided by a runoff on 28 May – L’élection présidentielle se déroulera par un second tour le 28 mai – Four questions (and expert answers) about the Turkish presidential election runoff – Atlantic Council
UK – Ukraine
Andrew Chuter scrive che, nell’ambito dei nuovi apporti militari a Kiev, la Gran Bretagna avvierà l’addestramento al volo dei piloti ucraini – Andrew Chuter writes that as part of the new military build-up in Kiev, UK will start flight training for Ukrainian pilots – Andrew Chuter écrit que dans le cadre du nouveau renforcement militaire à Kiev, la Grande-Bretagne va commencer à former des pilotes ukrainiens – Britain to train Ukrainian pilots, supply more missiles and drones (defensenews.com)
Ukraine – Europe
Tim Martin scrive che il tour europeo di Zelensky ha assicurato all’Ucraina nuove forniture militari. Resta irrisolto il nodo dei jet da combattimento – Tim Martin writes that Zelensky’s European tour has secured Ukraine new military supplies. The issue of fighter jets remains unresolved – Tim Martin écrit que la tournée européenne de Zelensky a permis à l’Ukraine d’obtenir de nouvelles fournitures militaires. La question des avions de combat reste en suspens – Zelenskyy’s EuroTrip: German billions, UK weapons, but no jets coming – Breaking Defense
USA
Cy McGeady, John Larsen, Kyle Danish and Mathias Zacarias scrivono delle difficoltà, tra necessità della transizione ecologica, costi di realizzazione e problemi giuridici, delle nuove norme proposte l’11 maggio scorso dall’ Environment Protection Agency – Cy McGeady, John Larsen, Kyle Danish and Mathias Zacarias write about the difficulties, between the need for ecological transition, implementation costs and legal problems, of the new rules proposed on 11 May by the Environment Protection Agency – Cy McGeady, John Larsen, Kyle Danish et Mathias Zacarias écrivent sur les difficultés, entre nécessité d’une transition écologique, coûts de mise en œuvre et problèmes juridiques, des nouvelles règles proposées le 11 mai par la Environment Protection Agency – Experts React: EPA Greenhouse Gas Standards and Guidelines for Fossil Fuel-Fired Power Plants (csis.org)
Gregory C. Allen scrive dell’utilizzo dell’intelligenza artificiale e dei sistemi autonomi da parte del Dipartimento della Difesa. Nel 2017 venne dato il via all’ Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Functional Team, meglio noto come Progetto Maven – Gregory C. Allen writes about the Department of Defence’s use of artificial intelligence and autonomous systems. In 2017, the Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Functional Team, better known as Project Maven, was initiated – Gregory C. Allen s’intéresse à l’utilisation de l’intelligence artificielle et des systèmes autonomes par le ministère de la Défense. En 2017, le Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Functional Team, mieux connue sous le nom de projet Maven, a été lancée – Six Questions Every DOD AI and Autonomy Program Manager Needs to Be Prepared to Answer (csis.org)
Andrew White scrive che, affinché lo US Special Operations Command possa stare al passo con la Cina, occorrono operazioni di privaty equity per velocizzare l’integrazione della tecnologia commerciale in aree di avanguardia – Andrew White writes that in order for the US Special Operations Command to keep up with China, private equity operations are needed to speed up the integration of commercial technology into cutting-edge areas – Andrew White écrit que pour que le commandement des opérations spéciales des États-Unis puisse suivre la Chine, des opérations de capital-investissement sont nécessaires pour accélérer l’intégration de la technologie commerciale dans des domaines de pointe – In race with China, SOCOM must leverage private equity, say experts and VCs – Breaking Defense
Lauren C. Williams scrive dell’adozione, da parte della Defense Intelligence Agency, dell’intelligenza artificiale generativa – Lauren C. Williams writes about the Defense Intelligence Agency’s adoption of generative artificial intelligence – Lauren C. Williams parle de l’adoption de l’intelligence artificielle générative par la Defense Intelligence Agency – A ‘Stronger, Faster’ Intelligence Community Is Possible With AI – Defense One
Courtney Albon scrive che il Pentagono sta lavorando sui programmi di armi ipersoniche. Ma la base industriale potrebbe avere difficoltà per la domanda di munizioni per il rifornimento dell’Ucraina e per la necessità di rifornire le scorte di armi statunitensi – Courtney Albon writes that the Pentagon is working on hypersonic weapons programmes. But the industrial base could face difficulties due to the demand for ammunition to supply Ukraine and the need to replenish US weapons stocks – Courtney Albon écrit que le Pentagone travaille sur des programmes d’armes hypersoniques. Mais la base industrielle pourrait rencontrer des difficultés en raison de la demande de munitions pour approvisionner l’Ukraine et de la nécessité de reconstituer les stocks d’armes américains – Push to refill US weapon reserves could strain hypersonic production (defensenews.com)
William A. Galston scrive di come gli americani vivono la questione del debito e di quanto essa incida sulle loro vite quotidiane – William A. Galston writes about how Americans experience the debt issue and how it affects their daily lives – William A. Galston écrit sur la façon dont les Américains vivent la question de la dette et comment elle affecte leur vie quotidienne – What Americans think about the debt ceiling fight (brookings.edu)
USA – China – Latin America
Loro Horta scrive della competizione tra USA e Cina in America Latina – Loro Horta writes about the competition between the US and China in Latin America – Loro Horta écrit sur la concurrence entre les États-Unis et la Chine en Amérique latine – China expands its economic reach into the United States’ backyard | East Asia Forum
USA – China – Taiwan
S. Philip Hsu scrive delle evoluzioni politiche negli USA, in Cina e a Taiwan e di come condizioneranno i futuri rapporti trilaterali – S. Philip Hsu writes about political developments in the US, China and Taiwan and how they will shape future trilateral relations – S. Philip Hsu écrit sur les développements politiques aux États-Unis, en Chine et à Taïwan et sur la manière dont ils façonneront les futures relations trilatérales – Domestic power reshuffles in 2022 and US-Taiwan-China relations (brookings.edu)
USA – Iran
Caitlin M. Kenney scrive dell’impegno crescente, in funzione anti-iraniana, delle forze armate statunitensi dentro e intorno lo Stretto di Hormuz – Caitlin M. Kenney writes of the growing anti-Iranian commitment of the US military in and around the Strait of Hormuz – Caitlin M. Kenney parle de l’engagement anti-iranien croissant de l’armée américaine dans et autour du détroit d’Ormuz – After Ship Seizures, US Moves to Increase Patrols Off Iran – Defense One
Global topics
Climate change – Resilience
Cem Karayalcin and Harun Onder scrivono sul concetto di resilienza nel tempo dei cambiamenti climatici e di come esso debba essere al centro delle politiche di sviluppo – Cem Karayalcin and Harun Onder write about the concept of resilience over time of climate change and how it should be at the centre of development policies – Cem Karayalcin et Harun Onder s’intéressent au concept de résilience au changement climatique et à la manière dont il devrait être au centre des politiques de développement – Coping with climate shocks: Ecosystems versus economic systems (brookings.edu)
