According to Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, from June 2020 to the end of July 2021, Polish consulates issued a total of 178,711 visas for Belarusians, of which 12,190 were so-called humanitarian visas, used by de facto political refugees. For comparison, during 2019, Poland issued 358,421 visas to citizens of Belarus, of which only 7 were humanitarian (Polskie Radio, August 4). Belarusians fleeing repression also migrate to Lithuania, Ukraine and other countries. Those repressions have not yet shown signs of abating. Alexander Knyrovich, a formerly successful Belarusian entrepreneur, predicts that the number of political prisoners in Belarus will peak at about 6,000 people, up from around 1,000 today, and that the Belarusian political regime will last decades. Its longevity, he argues, is contingent on the current political regime in Russia, for which supporting Minsk is sustainable and popular among significant segments of the Russian population. That, in turn, means that emigration of the most creative and enterprising Belarusians will continue, up to a point when regime loyalists will indeed command a majority in Belarus (YouTube, December 4). Knyrovich currently resides in Poland and plans to pursue a business career there.
Belarusian Political Crisis: Untenable Risks and Achievable Goals – Jamestown
