Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) have seen development prospects fade in the two years since the onset of COVID-19. Growth turned negative in 2020, is forecast to snap back in 2021, but then revert to a declining trend. Investment levels in Latin America and Africa are forecast to remain in the range of 20-25 percent of GDP in the medium term. Outside of Asia, prospects for growth and for convergence with advanced economies are dim. Unlike in advanced economies, the GDP trajectory in EMDEs post-COVID-19 is significantly lower than pre-COVID-19 estimates; 31 developing countries may have lower levels of GDP per capita in 2025 than in 2019.
Status check: Managing debt sustainability and development priorities through a ‘Big Push’ (Homi Kharas and Meagan Dooley, Brookings)
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