Israel’s third commemoration of the October 7, 2023, attacks reflects not only the events of the three years since but also two new events: the recent terrorist attack on an airplane carrying Israelis home from Dubai, and the impending national election.
The Omani copilot’s alleged effort to crash his own FlyDubai flight reminded Israelis of the continuing threats to their lives from Islamic terrorism and of their own ability to resist and to prevail. It gave a genuine boost to public morale at a difficult time. The election season has not been uplifting, because it has been a reminder of old divisions—including over who bears responsibility for the failures that meant October 7 cost so many lives.
Responsibility has been debated endlessly over the past three years, and several new books have added fresh facts to the conversation—but there is no official or accepted version. The Israeli way to reach such conclusions, a formal national commission, has been blocked by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud Party. So, facts emerge and stories are told, but it will be up to history to find a more widely accepted judgment. In the meantime, the election will provide a shorter-term verdict. Few thought the prime minister could survive the aftermath of October 7, 2023, politically, but the race is tight. No party has anything near a majority, and there may need to be a second round of elections if weeks of postelection bargaining fail to produce a majority coalition.
Meanwhile, Israel’s security doctrine and its objective circumstances have changed. The idea of deterrence has largely been abandoned when it comes to threats like Hamas and Hezbollah. Even with respect to Iran, the new approach replaces efforts to understand the psychology and intentions of enemies with a more mechanical assessment of their capabilities. Believe those who say they want you dead and gone, and count their missiles and soldiers. Always be ready to act first, and to attack in the enemy’s territory. This is, as many have pointed out, actually an old doctrine and not far from the views of Israel’s first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion.
by Elliott Abrams/Council on Foreign Relations – At October 7 Anniversary, Israelis Face an Election and an Unfinished Reckoning
