When Prime Minister Albanese joins global leaders next week at the High-Level segment of the UN General Assembly, one issue will dominate the gathering: the selection of the next Secretary-General. António Guterres’ term ends on 31 December and the race for his succession is underway. For now, there is no front-runner, and lack of agreement by year’s end, is a possibility. Australia should follow closely.
In UN Headquarters it has become cliché to say that the next Secretary-General will inherit an organisation in crisis. The mood is sombre, staff have been let go and the Security Council is increasingly deadlocked. Lowy Institute Executive Director Michael Fullilove summarised the situation in a November 2025 speech: “the UN has been conspicuously absent. António Guterres moves without trace”.
Meanwhile, global armed conflict reached a record high. This is a result of the disintegrating world order, which is also driving the UN’s demise. As conflict proliferates and the UN proves unable to respond, its legitimacy erodes further, and the international system grows more unstable and violent still – a multilateral doom loop.
This has direct implications for Australia, with its defence spending projected to rise to 3% of GDP by 2033, an additional $117 billion over a decade. The calls for enhancing defence spending in a lawless world are understandable, and could help restore a balance of power. But when everybody rearms, this also increases the risk of conflict.
by The Interpreter – Australia and the next UN chief need each other
