Europe
(Koen Verhelst – Politico) Protecting Europe’s steel industry was always going to require difficult trade-offs. But with cheap imports surging, existing protections about to expire and Donald Trump once again raising barriers to steel, the European Commission concluded it had little choice but to shore up an industry central to Europe’s manufacturing and defense ambitions. It did so using a mix of legal creativity and hardball tactics. By sharply curbing steel imports and presenting its trading partners with what many saw as take-it-or-leave-it deals, Brussels may have secured some breathing room for European producers. But it has also frayed ties with some of the very countries it says it needs to uphold the rules-based trading system and counter China’s industrial overcapacity and U.S. protectionism. – Saving Europe’s steel strains critical friendships abroad – POLITICO
Russia
(Max Griera – Politico) Vladimir Putin has no intention of striking a peace deal with Ukraine and is more likely to instead escalate his war after Moscow’s parliamentary election in September, according to Russian opposition activist Garry Kasparov. The dissident’s warning comes as Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian military logistics and energy infrastructure, a push that Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said has made Russia “weaker” — and Kyiv hopes could give it the upper hand at the negotiating table. Yet Kasparov argues that mounting pressure makes Putin more likely to escalate than compromise, and that any settlement short of a Russian defeat would merely give Moscow time to regroup – Putin’s next move will be Baltic incursion, warns top Russian dissident – POLITICO
(Amos Chapple and Mark Krutov – RFE/RL) Key military sites in Russia’s far north appear to have been deprived of their air defense assets, recent satellite images show, as the Kremlin attempts to counter an increasingly damaging Ukrainian drone campaign targeting sites elsewhere in the country. Satellite images sourced by RFE/RL show the Kremlin has shuffled units from several strategic sites once heavily protected by S-300 and S-400 missile systems, leaving little apparent air defense in place. Around the Rogachevo air base in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago of Russia’s Arctic region, a missile base that has been in place since at least August 2015 has had most of its air defense assets removed, a July 6 image shows. Katarzyna Zysk, a professor with the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies told RFE/RL that the apparent disappearance of many air defense assets from Russia’s far north represents “a growing mismatch between the targets Russia must protect and its available launchers, interceptors, and trained personnel.” – Russia Strips Arctic Air Defenses As Ukraine War Strains Military
US – Iran – Middle East – Gulf
(Alex Raufoglu – RFE/RL) Fresh US strikes on Iran, Tehran’s renewed attacks on American bases in the Persian Gulf, and President Donald Trump’s announcement that Washington would reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian shipping have pushed the conflict into a new and uncertain phase. But despite the intensifying military exchanges, Jonathan Schroden, chief research officer at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) and a leading US expert on irregular warfare, says that the current violence resembles the turbulent path many wars take before reaching a negotiated settlement. – Jonathan Schroden: Why The US-Iran Conflict Keeps Shifting Between Fighting And Diplomacy
(AFP/Al Arabiya) The United States on Tuesday expanded its sanctions targeting Iran’s oil sector, taking further aim at the network of petroleum shipping magnate Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani, the Treasury Department said. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the department had also frozen $130 million held in digital wallets linked to Iran’s central bank, hitting a sector that has seen increased activity since the start of the war. – US expands sanctions targeting Iran oil, cryptocurrency sectors
(Al Arabiya) US forces struck Iran and reimposed a naval blockade on its ports as Tehran hit neighboring Gulf states and Jordan on Wednesday, vowing the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed “until the US ends its aggression”. The strikes came hours after US President Donald Trump backed down on his planned 20 percent levy on ships using the strait, which is at the center of a flare-up in a war that has rattled the Middle East and pushed up global energy prices. – US renews blockade, trades strikes with Iran over Strait of Hormuz
Tech World, Cybersecurity, and Surveillance
(Mike Allen – Axios) In Abu Dhabi, the largest emirate in the United Arab Emirates, AI is as much a part of daily life as reporting a pothole or making a doctor’s appointment or paying a parking ticket — because AI does all that for you. Abu Dhabi, the capital of one of the world’s wealthiest and most globalized business hubs, has near-universal adoption of an app that knows when you need to renew your national ID or health insurance or vehicle registration. The app’s “AutoGov” feature goes a step further: It handles the paperwork and pays what’s owed without being asked. The UAE made a massive bet on AI, spending billions on infrastructure and research, backed by long-term thinking and alignment from top leaders. Before the war with Iran, the bet was paying off massively. “People make money here and bring money here,” a UAE resident told Jim VandeHei and me when we visited just before the war. – UAE’s big bet on AI
