Sources: The Jamestown Foundation; The Soufan Center
Europe – Azerbaijan
(Vasif Huseynov – The Jamestown Foundation) On July 1, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Baku for the first leg of a two-day South Caucasus tour, meeting Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to discuss energy cooperation, regional connectivity, and the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process. Von der Leyen announced a 200 million euro ($229 million) Global Gateway grant package for South Caucasus connectivity, projected to mobilize up to 2 billion euros ($2.29 billion) in combined public and private investment, alongside a proposed EU–Azerbaijan Connectivity Partnership. The visit reflected a broader recalibration of EU–Azerbaijan relations, with Baku becoming a strategic partner in energy security and Middle Corridor connectivity while advancing negotiations on a new bilateral framework agreement to replace the 1999 Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. – European Commission President Visits Azerbaijan – Jamestown
Russia
(Kassie Corelli – The Jamestown Foundation) .Ukraine’s expanding drone strikes deep inside Russia, including the June 18 attack on Moscow, are prompting Kremlin-aligned media and military bloggers to demand treason charges against civilians who photograph or share footage of attacks online. Russia’s new “confirming the delivery date of goods” (SPOT) import system is likely intended to prevent drone-component smuggling but is also disrupting parallel import networks that have helped Moscow circumvent sanctions and acquire critical military technologies. Expanded domestic repression, tighter import controls, and ongoing anti-corruption purges in the defense sector are straining Russia’s military supply chains and are likely to undermine its long-term defense capabilities. – Domestic Repression Undermining Kremlin’s Defense Capabilities – Jamestown
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Gas shortages across the Russian Federation that Ukrainian drone attacks have brought on are rapidly acquiring a political dimension despite the Kremlin’s assumption that Russians will weather this latest challenge with their usual forbearance. Russians are angry not only because the Kremlin has not protected them but also because it is protecting those closest to Moscow first. Elites are using the situation to press their own agendas, and the crisis now has an international dimension as Russia’s neighbors react. That does not mean the Duma vote will not go as the Kremlin wants—Russian President Vladimir Putin can and will get the results he wants—or that there will be any repeat of the 2011 protests. It does mean support for Putin will continue to fall, even among Russian elites. – Gas Crisis Increasingly Serious Political Problem for Putin – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine
(Bethany Elliott – The Jamestown Foundation) Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, who held the position from 2021–2023, believes that Russia’s war against Ukraine began in 2004 after the Orange Revolution. Russia’s war against Ukraine today is markedly different from the one that Reznikov oversaw. He says the war has evolved into a drone- and electronic warfare-dominated conflict, with inexpensive, scalable technologies replacing traditional armored warfare and making battlefield innovation more important than manpower or costly conventional weapons. Ukraine’s rapid military-technological advances have not yet translated into major territorial gains. Although Ukraine’s overall goal remains a return to its 1991 borders, Reznikov asserts that this is unlikely in the short term. Reznikov says that both Russia and Ukraine remain unable to achieve a decisive military breakthrough. Reznikov believes that Russia may require a pause to recover from mounting economic and military strain as well as the loss of its professional corps. Lasting peace, he argues, will require credible security guarantees because Moscow remains a long-term threat to European security. – Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov Describes New Type of War – Jamestown
Ukraine
(The Soufan Center) Since the start of the war, innovative solutions by Ukrainian volunteer groups and soldiers have spurred on a defense industrial base that has rapidly innovated, produced, and scaled drones and counter-drone technology to address constraints on the battlefield and shifting tactics used by Russia to besiege the country. Various agreements signed on the sidelines of last week’s NATO summit in Ankara attest to the global demand for Ukraine’s combat-proven technology and expertise, prompted by the Iran War and European rearmament. Gulf and European states now aim to learn from Ukraine’s overarching operational and doctrinal innovation on the battlefield to respond to current security threats. While Ukraine is clearly at the cutting edge of cost-effective offensive and defensive drone technology, Kyiv remains dependent on its partners — especially the United States — for air and missile defense. – Global Demand for Ukraine’s Drone and Counterdrone Expertise and Technology – The Soufan Center
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