Sources: ASPI The Strategist; Council on Foreign Relations; Lowy The Interpreter; The Jamestown Foundation; The Soufan Center; UN News
Australia
(Raff Ciccone – ASPI The Strategist) Australia has long debated the future of our submarine capability. The decision that we’ve reached is that nuclear-powered submarines are the answer. Since reaching that decision, very little has actually changed, but, in recent months, some voices have been demanding that we rethink the entire project over details that they find dissatisfying. Let us be clear about what is at stake. Australia is an island trading nation with the third-largest maritime domain in the world. Almost all of our trade travels by sea. Our fuel, food, fertiliser, pharmaceuticals, manufactured goods and many other essentials arrive through maritime supply chains. The very foundations of our economy and our capacity to defend ourselves depend on secure access to the sea. That is an existential vulnerability, and any politician or commentator who dismisses the protection of Australia’s maritime trade as insignificant or, far worse, as ridiculous is not just unserious about national security; they are negligent. – Nuclear submarines: bolt-cutters to ensure Australia is never wrapped in chains | The Strategist
(ASPI) The adaptive, risk-reducing process known as spiral development will increasingly feature in Australian military acquisition, Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy told the ASPI Defence Conference on Thursday. A rapid, ongoing project for counter-drone capability was an example of the policy, Conroy said. In spiral development, a system’s features are added or changed incrementally, as program managers and engineers avoid biting off more than they can chew. Fewer problems should arise than in attempting to achieve all goals in one go. Spiral development also eases adaptation as development proceeds. – Australia will increasingly use spiral development in defence – Conroy | The Strategist
(ASPI) AUKUS Pillar One will keep Australia in a shrinking group of countries operating submarines in coming decades, Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles told the ASPI Defence Conference on Thursday. Submarines would become harder to operate, so they’d need to be better, said Marles, who is also Australia’s defence minister. Responding to critics who he said were just not engaging with details, Marles set out a simple train of logic behind Pillar One, the submarine element of the AUKUS defence partnership with Britain and the United States. – AUKUS to keep Australia in a shrinking submarine club – Marles | The Strategist
(James Corera – ASPI The Strategist) Australians received two security assessments on separate days this week but need to see them as directly related. The first was a rare joint statement from the Five Eyes cybersecurity agency heads on digital threats and resilience in an era of AI. The second was the most operationally candid Annual Threat Assessment yet delivered by Director-General of Security Mike Burgess – focused on threats to social cohesion and national resilience. Media coverage is treating them as separate stories: one a corporate governance advisory, the other a terrorism and espionage briefing shadowed by the grief of Bondi. But leaving any gap between them is precisely where strategic exposure lives. That’s because the separation between offline and online has collapsed: virtual vulnerabilities now produce real-world consequences. The timing and openness of the assessments reflect a growing view of democracies that public safety and social cohesion cannot be managed by obscuring the nature of the threats. Both are designed not to merely inform but to shape a collective response – from government, industry and civil society. – Five Eyes, ASIO warnings are not separate. Nor should our response be | The Strategist
(Chris Taylor – ASPI The Strategist) When the director-general of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation speaks, people tend to listen. And in his annual threat assessment address – his seventh – Mike Burgess was speaking to multiple audiences, including those threatening Australia’s security and the public in whose name ASIO acts. For the former, his message was a warning: ASIO has their number. For the latter, the message was more mixed: they should be reassured about ASIO’s capabilities; shocked but not surprised about the grim security threats Australia faces. Before Burgess’s inaugural 2020 address, ASIO directors-general rarely spoke beyond closed-door briefings. Now the annual threat assessment is a public event, reported widely and attended by Canberra’s national security and diplomatic luminaries. It’s also an opportunity to illuminate the big picture of Australian security. – Many, varied audiences for ASIO’s Annual Threat Assessment | The Strategist
Australia – Japan
(ASPI/Japan Nexus Intelligence) Counter-disinformation should become a bilateral Australia–Japan priority, an explainer published by ASPI and Japan Nexus Intelligence argues. Mission leads should be appointed in Australia’s Office of National Intelligence and Japan’s newly established National Intelligence Agency. An information offensive against Japan is being conducted through overt propaganda tools, including Chinese state media, as well as by exploiting an online network of social media influencers, inauthentic accounts and bots to spread disinformation and boost Beijing’s narratives. Beijing has ratcheted up its campaign since Sanae Takaichi became prime minister in October. Nonetheless, Takaichi’s resounding general electoral victory in February this year gives her government a mandate to push ahead with reforms that will improve Japan’s resilience to disinformation and other types of coercion. Takaichi’s reforms have included the establishment in May of a new ministerial-level National Intelligence Committee, served by the equally new National Intelligence Agency, to better direct Japan’s multiple intelligence institutions. – Countering disinformation could anchor Australia–Japan intelligence cooperation | The Strategist
China
(Christopher Nye, Charles Sun – The Jamestown Foundation) Beijing is pursuing an asymmetric closed-door doctrine, ensuring domestic critical resources remain onshore while attracting additional resources from overseas. One of the most developed instances of this approach is seen in its handling of human genetic resources (HGR). Strict controls over HGR have kept samples and sequencing data onshore for more than a quarter century. A recent National Health Commission consultation draft of revised HGR implementing rules adds to a growing regulatory regime covering HGR that includes laws on biosecurity, data security, personal information protection, and state secrets, as well as two cross-border data rules. The newly proposed rules seek to expand the state’s access to genetic information by mandating that data disclosed abroad for publication or at conferences must first be deposited at the China National Center for Bioinformation, a state-run gene bank. This is one of two state-led repositories that are intended to rival national-level gene banks in the United States, Europe, and Japan. BGI Group’s overseas business, including prenatal testing in 52 countries and pandemic-era laboratory deployments, shows how genomic data generated abroad flows toward PRC-controlled repositories. No other analogs exist for this regime. The U.S. approach makes openness the default for federally funded fundamental research, with no nationality restrictions on access to its GenBank data. Washington began restricting bulk genomic transfers to countries of concern only in 2024. – Beijing’s Asymmetric Securitization of Genomic Data – Jamestown
China – North Korea
(Christopher Nye, Charles Sun – The Jamestown Foundation) Xi Jinping’s June 8 visit to Pyongyang left denuclearization unmentioned, suggesting that Beijing no longer asks Pyongyang to surrender its weapons. This follows a trend over the last year in which Beijing has stopped discussing nuclear issues on the Korean peninsula in public statements. Official discourse now frames nuclear issues in northeast Asia exclusively in terms of the prospect of U.S. allies acquiring nuclear weapons, in particular denouncing Japan’s supposed “new militarism” while ignoring the threats it now faces from three hostile nuclear neighbors. Beijing hopes that a nuclear Pyongyang will strain U.S. alliances in the region: either Washington must extend costly assurances, or it acquiesces to nuclear proliferation and can be painted as a destabilizing and irresponsible power. – Xi Sees Kim’s Warheads as Leverage Over U.S. Allies – Jamestown
Global Ocean Protection
(Larelle Bossi – Lowy The Interpreter) The global ambition to protect 30% of the world’s land and ocean by 2030 – known simply as “30×30” – has helped galvanise governments, conservation organisations, and international institutions around a common goal: reverse biodiversity loss and safeguard the ecosystems upon which life depends. Global targets matter. They create focus, urgency, and accountability. Without ambitious goals, environmental action can easily drift. Targets also have limitations. A percentage can tell us how much ocean is protected, for example. It cannot tell us whether protection is effective, legitimate, equitable, or enduring. Nor can it tell us whether conservation is strengthening relationships between people and the ocean or simply redrawing lines on a map. – Global ocean protection is no simple equation | Lowy Institute
India
(Sunaina Kumar – Lowy The Interpreter) Unlike its neighbouring countries in South Asia, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal, where well-established political regimes were brought down by gen Z protests, India has so far bucked the trend. The Indian political establishment, however, has been closely monitoring a viral meme that took off in May focused on the issue of unemployment. It started in response to remarks by the Chief Justice of India, who compared unemployed youth to “cockroaches” and referred to “parasites of society who attack the system”. The remarks drew online outrage, which then turned into a digital youth movement that over 20 million followers on Instagram within the first few weeks. Led by gen Zs and millennials, the mock political movement calls itself the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP). It has unveiled a manifesto in which it has demanded “Jobs for All”. India is among the fastest-growing major economies of the world. Despite recent setbacks from the Middle East crisis, the World Bank has projected growth in India at 6.6 per cent in the 2026–27 financial year. The country has strong macroeconomic fundamentals – low inflation, substantial foreign reserves, low external debt, a healthy financial sector, and trade diversification. Despite the forecast, India’s economic growth story is accompanied by the spectre of jobless growth, like an uninvited ghost at the banquet. – Growing economy, shrinking job prospects – India’s prosperity paradox | Lowy Institute
Indonesia
(Fibriansyah Fatahillah – Lowy The Interpreter) Imagine a cyber incident striking a major Indo-Pacific partner’s critical infrastructure. Your government has an active cooperation framework with that country – bilateral dialogues, shared threat intelligence, joint exercises. You want to offer technical support. The question that follows may be more awkward than expected. Who, exactly, are you offering it to? In Indonesia’s case, the honest answer is that this question remains structurally unresolved. In June 2024, a ransomware attack on Indonesia’s temporary national data centre resulted in weeks of disruption for 282 government agencies — including immigration services and airport operations. The incident drew extensive coverage. Most of it focused on the attack itself: the sophistication of ransomware known as “Brain Cipher”, the government’s decision not to pay the ransom, the embarrassing sequel when the attackers released the decryption key for free. Less attention went to the harder question underneath: why couldn’t Indonesia coordinate a faster response? – Indonesia’s cyber coordinator: page not found | Lowy Institute
Iran
(The Soufan Center) The Irrespective of whether a deal is reached to end the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, it seems likely that Tehran will continue to cultivate a network of proxy groups, including terrorist organizations, criminal entities, and so-called “disposable agents” both in the Middle East and abroad. Iran views its use of proxy groups and violent non-state actors as a form of strategic depth, forming the cornerstone of Tehran’s hybrid warfare approach, a modus operandi which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) believes has been effective in achieving Iranian objectives throughout the Middle East. Western intelligence agencies and security services remain on high alert about the potential for groups like Hamas to spread their influence in Europe, while Iran-backed attack plots organized by groups like Kataib Hezbollah and Foxtrot continue to be identified in the U.S., Canada, and Europe. For Iran, the use of proxies has become a form of its layered defense, a way to stretch the battlefield and attenuate the bandwidth of its adversaries. – Beyond the Battlefield: Fallout from the Iran Conflict – The Soufan Center
Middle East
(UN News) Since Tuesday, United Nations peacekeepers have detected no airstrikes or new missile fire in southern Lebanon. The lull remains fragile, however, as Israeli drones continue to fly over the area and military operations continue on the ground. Meanwhile, in the Gaza Strip, UN humanitarian operations are continuing despite growing shortages, worsened by Israeli restrictions on imports of materials needed for emergency shelters. Further east, in the Strait of Hormuz, some 11,000 seafarers are still waiting to be evacuated from the Persian Gulf after disruptions caused by the war launched in late February by the United States and Israel against Iran. The evacuation operation initiated by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) was suspended on Thursday following a new attack on a vessel in the Gulf of Oman. Three separate crises, now linked by the same uncertainty: the outcome of peace negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The signing last week of a Memorandum of Understanding providing for an end to hostilities between the two countries and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz led to an initial round of talks, which concluded on Monday in Switzerland. Since then, conflicting statements from the two capitals about the state of the discussions have fuelled uncertainty. – From Lebanon to the Strait of Hormuz, a Middle East hanging on fragile peace talks | UN News
Russia – Georgia
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia is expanding soft power in Georgia through cultural diplomacy, highlighted by two visits this year from Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for International Cultural Cooperation Mikhail Shvydkoy.
Moscow has intensified its promotion of Russian culture and language in Georgia, using theater performances, concerts, educational programs, and Russian-language initiatives to promote narratives of a shared historical and civilizational space and encourage closer Russian–Georgian ties. The Russian Interests Section at the Swiss Embassy in Georgia—the Russian diplomatic mission operating under a Swiss protecting-power arrangement established after Georgia severed relations following the 2008 invasion—has made promotion of the Russian language a priority over the last year. Moscow’s soft-power campaign has generated backlash inside Georgia, including protests at Russian-language events and criticism from civil society figures who view Russian cultural outreach as a vehicle for political – Russia Expanding Soft Power in Georgia via Culture and Language – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukraine’s successful drone attacks on Russian refineries and ports have significantly reduced Moscow’s ability to meet domestic needs and sell oil abroad. They highlight serious bottlenecks in Russia’s critically important oil sector.
These chokepoints reflect the fragility of Russia’s oil pipeline network. As a result, damage at a relatively few places has an outsize impact, and their concentration near Russia’s few ports makes them tempting targets for attack. Beyond these attacks are ever-more pressing causes. Global warming is damaging pipelines, easily accessible oil reserves are being exhausted, and developing more difficult-to-exploit alternative fields entails enormous costs and extreme challenges. – Russia’s Oil Bottlenecks Far More Serious than Just Refineries and Ports – Jamestown
(UN News) Thousands of civilians trapped in frontline communities in southern Ukraine are facing a deepening humanitarian crisis as access to food, medical care and evacuation routes continues to shrink, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in the country, HMRRU, warned on Wednesday. Residents in occupied parts of the Kherson region have described how daily life has become increasingly dangerous, with short-range drone attacks and landmines restricting movement and cutting off access to necessities. “People can’t get out, food can’t get in, and sick and injured are not getting the medical assistance they need,” said Danielle Bell, Head of HRMMU. Ukrainian authorities estimate that up to 6,000 civilians remain in frontline communities including Oleshky and Hola Prystan, among them more than 180 children.Reports indicate that at least 29 civilians have been killed and 54 injured in the two communities so far this year. – Thousands trapped in southern Ukraine struggle to survive | UN News
Strategic Competition
(G. Venkat Raman – Lowy The Interpreter) When the Pentagon recently added companies Alibaba, BYD and Baidu to a list of firms allegedly linked to China’s military, it signalled a striking shift in how economic relations are understood. Alibaba is an e-commerce platform. BYD manufactures electric vehicles. Baidu is best known for search and artificial intelligence. Yet all are now seen through a national security lens. The boundary between commercial activity and strategic competition appears to be disappearing. For much of the post-Cold War era, globalisation was presented as a largely economic phenomenon. Markets generated efficiency, supply chains lowered costs and interdependence was expected to reduce conflict. Today, that assumption is under strain. Technology, supply chains, finance, and industrial capabilities are no longer viewed as politically neutral. They are capable of generating leverage, dependence, and vulnerability. What makes contemporary competition different is that governments focus on integrated technology networks rather than individual firms. A semiconductor company depends on design software, fabrication equipment, talent, cloud infrastructure, and access to markets. Electric vehicles depend on batteries, critical minerals, charging networks and industrial standards. Artificial intelligence depends on chips, data, computing power, and energy. The strategic value lies not in any single component but in the network as a whole. This helps explain why governments are treating commercial sectors as matters of economic security. – The new political logic of global tech and trade | Lowy Institute
Sudan
(UN News) The United Nations Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy for Sudan voiced alarm on Wednesday over escalating violence in and around the city of El Obeid, warning that further military escalation could put thousands of civilians at risk and deepen Sudan’s already devastating humanitarian crisis. Speaking to reporters at UN Headquarters in New York, Pekka Haavisto said the situation in El Obeid, capital of North Kordofan state, had become increasingly concerning in recent days amid ongoing hostilities and frequent drone strikes. “We are alarmed of the ongoing hostilities around the city, including frequent drone strikes,” he said. “These are already affecting the civilians and affecting humanitarian aid to the city. Any further escalation of the situation would place thousands of people at risk”. The envoy drew parallels with previous crises in Sudan, particularly in Darfur and around El Fasher, where violence against civilians triggered large-scale humanitarian disasters. “Unfortunately, the situation reminds us a little bit of the earlier developments in Darfur and around El Fasher and reminds that there are immediate risks for the civilian population,” he said. Mr. Haavisto revealed that he had spoken by telephone on Friday with General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), regarding developments in El Obeid. According to the envoy, Hemedti assured him that civilians would not be targeted. “He confirmed to me that his intention is not to harm the civilians, and his intention is to protect the humanitarian corridors to the city,” Mr. Haavisto said. “This is something that we have to now follow as exactly as we can.” – UN envoy warns of growing risks in El Obeid as Sudan conflict drags on | UN News
Syria
(UN News) The 15-member Security Council unanimously adopted a draft resolution on Thursday renewing the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) for six months. Resolution 2824 (2026) extends until 31 December 2026 the mandate of UNDOF, one of the UN’s longest-standing peacekeeping missions. The Security Council established the mission following the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement between Israel and Syria, which ended the Yom Kippur War. Its mandate is to maintain the ceasefire between the parties and supervise the disengagement of Israeli and Syrian forces as well as the areas of separation and limitation in the Golan. – Security Council extends critical stabilisation force in Syria | UN News
Venezuela – US
(Sam Vigersky – Council on Foreign Relations) Massive back-to-back earthquakes rocked northern Venezuela in the early evening on June 24. The first struck at 6:04 p.m. local time with a magnitude of 7.2, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). It was followed 39 seconds later by a magnitude 7.5 quake, with an epicenter that was 10 miles southwest of the city of Morón—a major industrial hub along the Caribbean coast—and 104 miles west of the capital, Caracas. The second quake was the strongest to hit the country in a century. At least thirty aftershocks have been reported. By the next morning, the Venezuelan government said the twin quakes had left 164 people dead and more than 1,000 injured. Those figures are expected to rise. The USGS estimates that the death toll could be between ten thousand and one hundred thousand people. The infrastructural toll is massive, too; footage of collapsed buildings, leaning residential towers, and injured victims indicate widespread destruction near the quakes’ epicenters, as well as in high density areas such as Caracas. – As Death Toll Spikes, Venezuela’s Earthquakes Test U.S. Disaster Relief | Council on Foreign Relations
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