Sources (Atlantic Council; Council on Foreign Relations; RUSI; The Jamestown Foundation; UN News)
Armenia – Iran
(Vali Kaleji – The Jamestown Foundation) Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s victory in Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections reinforces the country’s pro-Western trajectory and is likely to advance peace with Azerbaijan and normalization with Türkiye, leading to contradictory implications for Iran. For Tehran, renewed momentum behind the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) presents major strategic concerns, including potential reductions in Iran’s transit leverage, expanded U.S. economic presence near its borders, and heightened security risks amid growing Armenian–Western cooperation. Armenia’s gradual disengagement from Russia could create opportunities for Iran in energy, transport, and infrastructure sectors, even as a possible Armenian withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union threatens Iran’s trade and transit access to the bloc. – Armenian Election Results Hold Contradictory Implications for Iran – Jamestown
FATF Greylisting
(Arzu Abbasova – RUSI) A paper reveals how FATF greylisting – the designation of countries as ‘jurisdictions under increased monitoring due to strategic deficiencies in their anti‑money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) regimes’ – can unintentionally undermine financial inclusion ay. By examining some of the greylisted countries, the research highlights the indirect consequences of greylisting via compliance pressure, such as increased costs, banking sector retrenchment and restricted access to financial services for vulnerable populations. – FATF Greylisting and Financial Inclusion | Royal United Services Institute
G7
(Liana Fix – Council on Foreign Relations) This year’s Group of Seven (G7) summit was officially dedicated to reducing imbalances in the global economy, in particular the economic threat from China’s subsidized exports. In reality, geopolitics—especially the wars in Iran and Ukraine—took over the agenda. It appeared as if the meetings in Évian-les-Bains, France, produced a rare moment of transatlantic alignment on both fronts—though this consensus is much more brittle than it appears. It is built on a framework agreement that the Europeans privately doubt and a Ukraine negotiating window they fear the United States will squander. The question now is not whether cracks will emerge, but how quickly. Undoubtedly, the announcement of a framework agreement between the United States and Iran led many Europeans to cautiously breathe a sigh of relief. Stabilizing global energy prices and preventing a further escalation of hostilities is strongly in their interest. However, their expectations for the implementation of U.S. President Donald Trump’s agreement are modest. Given how fast it was produced and the short upcoming negotiation period, Europeans are concerned it may end up significantly weaker than the Iran nuclear deal and fail to resolve the question of the Islamic Republic’s regional proxies. – The G7’s Alignment on Iran and Ukraine Is Deeply Fragile | Council on Foreign Relations
Humanitarian Aid (Risk famine)
(UN News) Millions of people across some of the world’s most vulnerable regions are expected to face worsening hunger in the months ahead, as conflict, economic pressures and shrinking aid budgets exacerbate long-running crises. A new Hunger Hotspots report released Wednesday by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) identifies 13 countries and territories where food insecurity is expected to worsen between June and November 2026. – Worsening hunger could push millions closer to famine in 13 global hotspots | UN News
Human Rights (Defenders)
(UN News) Attacks against human right defenders have reached record levels over the past year, according to a new report issued on Wednesday by the UN human rights office, OHCHR. Preliminary data indicates that some 950 human rights defenders, journalists and trade unionists were killed or forcibly disappeared worldwide in 2025, more than double the number a decade ago. These and other alarming trends are highlighted in Human Rights Count 2026, OHCHR’s latest global dataset documenting attacks on defenders, civilian deaths in conflicts, patterns of discrimination worldwide and the state of institutions tasked with protecting universal human rights. – Rights defender killings hit record high as UN pushes to shore up humanitarian action | UN News
Human Rights (Hate Speech)
(UN News) As online platforms continue to fuel a surge in real-world violence against vulnerable communities, UN Secretary-General António Guterres is warning that freedom of expression must never be used to justify hate speech. “Hate speech is the first step down the path of dehumanisation,” declared Mr. Guterres in his message marking the 2026 International Day for Countering Hate Speech.. It is a “tool of division,” he said, for targeting specific groups, including women, migrants, refugees, LGBTQIA+ people, persons with disabilities and many other minorities, often for political gain. – Hate speech is ‘first step down the path of dehumanisation’ | UN News
Middle Corridor
(Vusal Guliyev – The Jamestown Foundation) The Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), is becoming increasingly institutionalized as regional actors shift to more structured forms of regulatory harmonization and integrated logistics.
Digitalization has become a central pillar of TITR development, highlighted by new agreements on electronic freight documentation, data-sharing systems, and e-permits. Infrastructure expansion is accelerating across rail, port, and maritime sectors. Azerbaijan and Georgia have modernized the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway, Azerbaijan is expanding Port of Baku shipping capacity, Kazakhstan is enlarging Aktau and Kuryk port facilities, and Uzbekistan is pursuing new ferry links to strengthen its role in Trans-Caspian trade. – Regional States Consolidate the Resilience of the Middle Corridor (Part 2) – Jamestown
NATO – Portugal
(Randi Charno Levine – Atlantic Council) NATO’s attention remains focused on its eastern flank, but mounting maritime, hybrid, and infrastructure threats are exposing critical gaps in its southern defenses. As Russia and China expand their reach into the Atlantic, Portugal could serve as a key pillar in strengthening NATO’s military mobility and civilian resilience. At the upcoming Ankara summit, NATO should rebalance its strategic focus accordingly—and more fully integrate Portugal into its southern defense planning and Atlantic posture – NATO’s southern flank is exposed. Portugal can help fortify it. – Atlantic Council
UN80
(UN News) The UN80 initiative, launched by the Secretary-General in March 2025 to make the United Nations system more effective, coherent and better able to deliver, has entered a decisive phase. Over the past year, the reform effort has gathered momentum across its three workstreams, from efficiencies and improvements to mandate implementation and broader programmatic and structural changes. As the process shifts from diagnosis to action, UN News spoke with Guy Ryder, Under-Secretary-General for Policy and head of the UN80 taskforce, about what has changed, what results are already emerging, and what success would mean for the United Nations and the people it serves. – UN80 initiative: what has changed, what comes next, and what it means for people | | UN News
US – Asia
(Joshua Kurlantzick – Council on Foreign Relations) At the May 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore—Asia’s premier annual defense forum—U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth delivered a message any European defense minister would have recognized from a Trump-era NATO summit. “The era of the United States subsidizing the defense of wealthy nations is over,” he declared. “We need partners, not protectorates. We seek alliances built on shared responsibility, not dependency.” Then he put a number on it: every Asia-Pacific ally and partner should commit to spending 3.5 percent of GDP on defense—with some reports suggesting that Washington’s real floor is closer to 5 percent. This is the same logic the Trump administration has pressed on European NATO members for years, but Asia is not Europe. The economic, political, and strategic obstacles to meeting these demands are far greater across the Indo-Pacific than across the Atlantic, Washington is far less likely to get what it wants, and the U.S. approach risks deepening Asian instability. – Trump’s Defense Demands Are Pushing Asian Allies Toward China | Council on Foreign Relations
US – Iran
(Council on Foreign Relations) On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”. Details of the agreement to be signed Friday have still yet to be officially published, though a U.S. official read the memo’s text to reporters and another senior official provided further context. At first glance, it appears to create a process for opening the Strait of Hormuz in the short run and lays out a sixty-day timetable to address many of the remaining issues, including the details for constraining Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the scope of sanctions relief and financial support for Iran. It surprisingly covers Israel’s war with Hezbollah in Lebanon and raises the prospect that the United States’ military presence in the region is open to negotiation. Needless to say, there are a lot of details to be negotiated and, if the past is prologue, good reasons to be skeptical that a comprehensive peace, even if reached, will hold. Nonetheless, this could be seen as breaking a deadlock that has threatened the global economy, even if it puts on the table issues we may later come to regret. – Trump’s Iran Deal Reopens the Strait. Much Remains to Be Done. | Council on Foreign Relations
(Atlantic Council) It’s bigger than the both of them. This week, the United States and Iran will sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU), which is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and solidify the ceasefire that they struck seventy days ago. The bilateral agreement will have far-reaching implications for other countries in the Middle East and beyond. – What the US-Iran deal means for the rest of the Middle East (and beyond) – Atlantic Council
Violations against children in armed conflict
(UN News) For the first time, soldiers and Government forces were responsible for more grave violations against children in armed conflict than non-State armed groups – and 2025 set a grim new record for the total number of child victims. The findings come in the annual UN report on Children and Armed Conflict (CAAC) which documents six main violations: killing and maiming, recruitment and use, abduction, rape and other forms of sexual violence, attacks on schools and hospitals, and denial of humanitarian access. The report verified 38,558 grave violations committed in 2025 affecting 24,174 children, many of whom suffered multiple violations. A third of the victims were girls. This marks the highest number of children affected since the UN established the CAAC mandate 30 years ago. – ‘Darkest chapter’: Record child violations in 2025, with national forces leading the way | UN News
In collaboration with
