Russia’s recruitment system nears breaking point, forcing debate over forced mobilization

(Martin Fornusek – The Kyiv Independent) As Russian battlefield gains slow and recruitment drive falters, Ukraine is warning that the Kremlin may finally reach for the measure it has long resisted — a forced mobilization. According to Kyiv, Moscow is preparing to call up tens of thousands of fresh soldiers to offset its climbing battlefield losses. But analysts believe Russia would only take that gamble in case of an imminent front-line collapse, or a sweeping pivot to a war economy — one that could signal preparations to push the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders. The first wave of “partial mobilization” in September 2022 sparked protests and prompted hundreds of thousands of Russians to flee abroad. Yet, the regime was able to weather the storm. Now, with a war-weary economy and creeping fatigue among the Russian public, a fallout from a second wave could prove far harder to contain. “If Russia does trigger military mobilization, it is a sign that the regime is under tremendous strain and is politically trapped,” says Max Bergmann, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). A mobilization is a “huge gamble for (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, a bet that could put himself and his regime at risk,” the expert told the Kyiv Independent. – Russia’s recruitment system nears breaking point, forcing debate over forced mobilization