Global think tanks (sources: Atlantic Council; Council on Foreign Relations; The Jamestown Foundation; The Soufan Center)
G7
(Atlantic Council) The Group of Seven (G7) is returning to where it began. Leaders from the world’s advanced economies are set to convene in Évian-les-Bains, France, from June 15 to 17, as France hosts the G7 in a year marked by geopolitical fragmentation, economic insecurity, and renewed questions about the role of the forum itself. The setting is fitting. In 1975, France hosted the first meeting of what was then the Group of Six, created in the aftermath of oil shocks, inflation, and the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary order. More than fifty years later, many of the same structural anxieties are back in sharper form: energy insecurity, trade tensions, sovereign debt stress, industrial competition, and doubts about whether advanced economies can coordinate in a more divided global economy. France has framed its presidency around restoring the G7’s original purpose as a forum for dialogue among major economic powers and reducing global imbalances. – Seven charts that will define France’s G7 summit – Atlantic Council
NATO
(Atlantic Council) Host Matthew Kroenig is joined by Admiral Pierre Vandier, Supreme Allied Commander of NATO’s Allied Command Transformation (ACT) to discuss how NATO is confronting the changing nature of war and the evolving threats facing the alliance. NATO ACT leads the Alliance’s military adaptation, coordinating efforts across member nations. ACT works to identify challenges and opportunities to ensure that the Alliance maintains a warfighting edge over its adversaries. – So what’s the strategy for NATO’s transformation? – Atlantic Council
Pakistan
(Rahim Nasar – The Jamestown Foundation) Pakistan’s diplomacy during the U.S.–Iran conflict was driven more by a desire to prevent a security vacuum along its roughly 900-kilometer (about 559-mile) border with Iran than by a bid for diplomatic prestige. Islamabad fears that a weakened Iranian state would create operational space for Baloch separatists, sectarian militants, smugglers, and transnational jihadist actors in the country’s southwest. The threat is compounded by Pakistan’s simultaneous pressure from Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan (IMP), and Islamic State-Pakistan Province (ISPP)-linked militancy on the Afghan frontier. For Pakistan, sustaining a stable and functional Iranian security apparatus is therefore a strategic counterterrorism priority and not merely a matter of regional diplomacy. – Pakistan’s U.S.–Iran Diplomacy Sought to Prevent a Militant Spillover – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine
(Michael C. Horowitz, Erin D. Dumbacher, Lauren Kahn – Council on Foreign Relations) Ukrainian innovation has led to territorial gains on the battlefield. In large part due to the scaling up of drone operations, Ukraine was able to retake seventy-eight square miles over five days in February 2026 and has continued making gains throughout its fifth spring offensive. Now, compared to the start of the war, Ukrainian drones are able to strike at longer ranges, including thirty to one hundred kilometers behind the front lines, expanding the kill zone and forcing Russia to divert resources to protect its supply lines and infrastructure. This reverses a trend of Russian gains throughout 2025 that had many analysts worried about Ukraine’s capacity to continue fighting. Russia continues offensive pressure in the east and Zaporizhzhia region, but the front remains fluid. Precise mass systems at scale, both in the air and at sea, have been a key driver of recent headway. Even with its society on a wartime footing, Ukraine cannot match Russia’s conventional arms or manpower. Defense innovation remains essential to Ukraine’s asymmetric strategy and operational successes. – How Ukraine’s Drone Innovation Reversed Russia’s Momentum | Council on Foreign Relations
War on Iran and beyond
(Phil McCausland, Mariel Ferragamo – Council on Foreign Relations) President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States and Iran were nearing an agreement to settle a three-and-a-half month-long conflict that has closed the Strait of Hormuz, sent oil shocks through the world, and affected global growth projections. Neither country has shared the terms that could be included in a potential agreement, and the president said he was not “100 percent” certain they had reached a deal—but there were several indications of progress. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that the two sides have “never been closer” on terms. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has acted as a mediator between Tehran and Washington, claimed in a social media post the same afternoon that “a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached.” Neither the United States nor Iran have officially confirmed Sharif’s claim, though Trump has accused Iran of leaking aspects of the deal. While the United States and Iran are likely to frame any agreement as beneficial to their side, an initial pact will not be the end of the negotiations. The expectation is that this deal—a memorandum of understanding (MOU)—would extend the ceasefire for at least sixty days and open the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supply. Meanwhile, the two sides would continue to negotiate several important issues, including the future of Iran’s nuclear program. “We have been here before only to discover the parties cannot bridge the remaining gaps,” said Steven Cook, a senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Even if they do and an MOU is announced, negotiations on the outstanding issues, especially on Iran’s nuclear program, will be long and difficult.” – Is a U.S.-Iran Deal Within Reach? Six Key Issues That Could Shape a Ceasefire | Council on Foreign Relations
(Javad Heiran-Nia – The Jamestown Foundation) The launch of U.S.–Israeli joint operations against Iran on February 28 has not fundamentally changed Iran’s political structure, but has led to a greater role of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders in decisionmaking centers such as the Supreme National Security Council. Unlike in the past—when the Supreme Leader stood above all institutions and held absolute power—the new Iranian political leadership operates within a decentralized, collective framework in which power is distributed among security institutions, with the IRGC as the most influential. The weakening of the middle class and the marginalization of reformists and moderates set the stage for the IRGC’s increasing dominance, which accelerated dramatically after the beginning of the conflict and the killing of Former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. – Iran’s Post-Conflict Political Structure – Jamestown
(Andrew McGregor – The Jamestown Foundation) The launch of the U.S.–Israeli strikes on February 28 devastated Iran’s conventional navy—the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN)—sinking numerous frigates, corvettes, and submarines while docked or at sea. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) remains dangerous, despite heavy losses, due to its decentralized structure and asymmetric warfare tactics. The destruction proved that expensive, conventional fleets are still vulnerable to superior forces, and will likely solidify Iran’s reliance on asymmetric tactics, including land-based missiles, drones, and speedboats. – Assessing the State of Iran’s Naval Infrastructure and Tactics – Jamestown
(Jonathan Panikoff – Atlantic Council) As the US and Iran close in on a memorandum of understanding, the US should maximize its leverage for nuclear talks by maintaining its military footprint and coordinating with European and Gulf allies. European and Middle Eastern allies are increasingly worried about the unpredictability of both the US and Israel, even as they have hardened against Iran. Trump should dedicate his remaining time in office to limiting Iran’s malign influence and reengaging on the Palestinian issue. – It’s not a ‘deal.’ But Trump’s memorandum with Iran can be the start of something bigger. – Atlantic Council
West Bank
(The Soufan Center) Settler violence against Palestinian communities in the West Bank has intensified since the start of the Iran War. While official Israeli statements have condemned certain instances of settler violence, the far-right government has expanded settlements into contested areas, and reports point to no legal persecution of fatal settler violence by Israeli authorities since 2020. Internationally, states have sought to curb settler violence through sanctions on settler leaders and have warned against construction contractors working on illegal settlements. With the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) fighting on multiple fronts, local reserve units consisting of settlers may increasingly be drawn upon in security roles in the West Bank, further exacerbating the problem of violence. – Terror Escalates in the West Bank as Settler Violence Intensifies – The Soufan Center
World Data Organization
(Arran Hope – The Jamestown Foundation) The World Data Organization (WDO), a new international institution, launched in Beijing in March. Limited information is publicly available regarding its claimed global membership or its institutional design but it is intended to advance the Chinese Communist Party’s global governance agenda. The WDO’s president, Tan Tieniu, is a world-leading expert in surveillance technologies for public security applications. The U.S. government sanctioned him in 2021 for his role in the Hong Kong government. Tan is also deeply involved in the Party’s united front work and has been a delegate to at least four national Party congresses. Articles by Tan and others outline a vision of global data governance that explicitly pushes back on the United States and the West, which Tan accuse of exacerbating “fragmentation and imbalance.”. The WDO is currently seeking to establish itself as a global platform for CCP influence. A United Nations representative delivered remarks at its founding event and its vice president—a former Party Secretary of China Mobile—wants it to work closely with the International Telecommunication Union and the World Intellectual Property Organization. – U.S.-Sanctioned United Front Figure Leads World Data Organization – Jamestown
In collaboration with
