Global think tanks (sources: Atlantic Council; Council on Foreign Relations)
(Heidi Crebo-Rediker – Council on Foreign Relations/G7, France, US) President Trump’s decision to attend next week’s G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, France, is noteworthy. Given his disdain for multilateralism and his frequent frustration with many of the other attendees, U.S. participation was not guaranteed. Regardless of global tensions or policy differences, leader-to-leader engagement at summits has value. Yet Trump will arrive immediately after celebrating his birthday on June 14 with a UFC championship event on the White House lawn and may be in a fighting mood himself, ready to use the G7 stage to berate allies for what he views as inadequate support following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Against this backdrop, French President Emmanuel Macron’s challenge may be less about advancing his personal initiatives than managing the summit itself. France could find itself confronting two sets of competing summit agendas: the one it planned and the one that geopolitical events—and Trump—have created. The task facing the French president will be to prevent these dueling agendas from overwhelming the broader purpose of the gathering while preserving what remains of G7 cohesion. That cohesion, as well as the G7’s usefulness as an organizational forum, has been challenged at other times over its fifty years of existence. It has survived many political transitions and still provides the primary platform for advanced economies to coordinate global policy. It should be preserved. Macron next week will seek to keep the flame alive as he passes the torch to the United States, which assumes the G7 presidency in 2027. – Macron’s Agenda Meets Trump’s at the G7 Summit | Council on Foreign Relations
(Mariel Ferragamo – Council on Foreign Relations/World Cup) The 2026 men’s World Cup is beset with a slew of travel restrictions affecting entry to the United States, which will host 78 out of 104 total matches. Fans from some countries are facing an outright ban on travel to the United States, while others will have to jump through multiple hoops to get inside the country. The challenges facing spectators who want to watch their home countries compete is indicating a lower turnout and a smaller economic return than FIFA, the global soccer body, and this year’s hosts initially boasted. Early reports from the tourism sector are already showing signs of lackluster attendance. “The truth is that even before the cup, many travelers had expressed reservations about travel to the United States,” CFR expert Ebenezer Obadare said. FIFA previously estimated the tournament would attract more than five million fans across the three countries, while the State Department more recently put that number at ten million visitors to the United States alone. Total expenditures (considering hosts, FIFA officials, investors, and fans) will likely top $13.9 billion, FIFA estimated. The organization also predicted [PDF] the tournament would bring in $40 billion in revenue and create more than eight hundred thousand jobs across the three cohosts. But as the first teams take to the field today, several stadiums are on track to have empty seats. The opening matches in the United States and Canada were not sold out on the official platform as of Monday, and across the opening group phase of the tournament, the resale portal still had 176,000 unsold tickets, according to the Financial Times—adding to concerns that the expected payout won’t fully materialize. – FIFA Promised a World Cup Economic Boom, But U.S. Stands May Be Emptier Than Usual | Council on Foreign Relations
(Peter Gautier – Atlantic Council/US, Drones) With over one million drones in the US, threats are rising rapidly to aviation, border security, military bases, critical infrastructure, and public events. Congress and the Trump administration have expanded counter-drone authorities and launched new initiatives, but stronger action is needed. The US should focus on better drone tracking, expanded law enforcement training, greater funding for counter-UAS systems, and improved interagency coordination. – Don’t wait for a disaster to develop strong US counter-drone capabilities – Atlantic Council
(Atlantic Council/War on Iran) The final bell of this bout may be near. The United States and Iran have traded blows in recent days, with the US launching two nights of strikes in southern Iran after Iran downed a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Iranian forces responded with attacks against Gulf countries and a US air base in Jordan. US President Donald Trump threatened further escalation this morning, but then reversed course this afternoon, calling off strikes and saying that all parties had “approved” a deal. What does this back-and-forth signal about the state of the war and the negotiations? – Is this the end of the Iran war? – Atlantic Council
Global news
(Dmytro Basmat – The Kyiv Independent/Russia, NATO) Russia will be prepared to “invade a NATO partner” by 2029, Lieutenant General Christian Freuding, the head of Germany’s army, told Politico in an interview published on June 11. Freuding’s comments are the latest in a series of increasingly warnings from Western leaders and defense officials about the threat emanating from Russia and Europe’s current lack of preparedness. “All 32 NATO partners agree that Russia might have the capability to invade a NATO partner country in 2029,” Freuding told Politico. “2029 is not a German timeline. It’s NATO-agreed intelligence,” further warning that an attack may occur sooner. – ‘It’s NATO-agreed intelligence’ — German army chief warns Russia will be prepared to attack NATO by 2029
(Volodymyr Ivanyshyn – The Kyiv Independent/Russia, NATO) Russia has expanded military infrastructure near its border with NATO members and is preparing for a potential war, a June 10 investigation by Danish public broadcaster DR and several counterparts revealed. Russia is expanding its military presence near its border with Finland, Norway, and the Baltic states, unnamed Nordic intelligence chiefs and top military officers told the outlet. – Russia has increased military buildup near NATO border, investigation reveals
(Nicholas Vinocur and Jacopo Barigazzi – Politico) The head of the EU’s diplomatic service has given a staunch defense of her institution as it fights off suggestions that it be shut down. In an email seen by POLITICO, Kaja Kallas, the bloc’s foreign policy chief, wrote to the 5,000-strong staff of the European External Action Service, insisting that it “added value” to the bloc. She was responding to a French government discussion paper that floated radical options for the EEAS that included bringing it completely under the control of the European Commission. “I would … stress how much added value we have provided to Europe as a team, especially at a moment of full-scale war raging in Europe,” Kallas said in her email. – Kallas defends EU’s foreign service after French paper questions its survival – POLITICO
(James Angelos and Nette Nöstlinger – Politico/Germany) In Friedrich Merz’s telling, it’s not just his chancellorship that’s on the line — but the future of the German republic. Merz and the leaders of his conservative-led government have vowed to agree on a series of urgent and long-delayed reforms on everything from the tax and pension systems to long-term care insurance in the coming weeks. The self-imposed deadline is intended to demonstrate that Germany’s ideologically divided coalition can come together to govern ahead of two elections set for September in states of the former East Germany, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is far ahead in polls. Both contests have taken outsized significance in Germany, where they’re widely seen not only as critical tests of the current government’s standing — but also of the resilience of German democracy 36 years after the country’s reunification. By the time voters go to polls in September, Merz says, his government needs to have shown that it’s capable of acting to restore economic growth and, more broadly, trust in the political mainstream. – Far-right surge puts Merz’s coalition on the clock to deliver – POLITICO
(Hanne Cokelaere – Politico/Europe, Migration) After years of political deadlock, false starts and dead ends, a major overhaul of EU migration policy kicks in on Friday. The reforms are the EU’s response to an upsurge in arrivals back in 2015, which revealed shortcomings in the bloc’s migration policies and cracks in its ability to coordinate policy. The aim is to increase control over who enters the EU and divide responsibilities between member countries — while boosting trust between those same countries. – The EU has new migration rules. What does that mean? – POLITICO
(Gregorio Sorgi – Politico/Europe, Budget) A group of wealthy northern EU countries has launched a revolt against a proposal for only minimal cuts to the bloc’s €2 trillion budget. The plan for a 2 percent (€32.8 billion) cut to the European Commission’s proposal for 2028 to 2034, put forward by the Cypriot government in its role at the six-month helm of the presidency of the Council of the EU, falls short of the demands by fiscally conservative countries, including Germany and Netherlands. “It is unaffordable, unbalanced, and with the wrong focus. The overall volume remains far too high at a time when fiscal space is limited across Europe and difficult choices are unavoidable,” Dutch Finance Minister Eelco Heinen wrote in a statement on Thursday after the Cypriot negotiating document — known as a “negobox” — was published. “For the Netherlands, this is a no-go box, ” he said. – We want bigger cuts to EU budget than planned, richer countries say – POLITICO
(Veronika Melkozerova – Politico/Russia, Ukraine) Ukraine wants an additional $20 billion from its allies to cement its temporary battlefield advantage over Russia, a senior Ukrainian defense official told POLITICO. “Everyone sees that Russia is burning, and we want it to burn even more, but we need financing to do it,” said the official, speaking on condition of being granted anonymity. The $20 billion ask will be made on June 18 at the next meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, also known as the Ramstein Format, where allies organize financial and military aid for Kyiv. – Ukraine to ask for $20B to make Russia ‘burn’ – POLITICO
(Dmytro Basmat – The Kyiv Independent/Russia, Ukraine) Ukraine’s military reportedly carried out drone attacks on various Russian regions overnight on June 12, striking multiple petrochemical plants as far as over 1,200 kilometers (620 miles) from the Russia-Ukraine border, Russian Telegram media channels reported. Ukrainian drones reportedly struck the Togliatti Kauchuk petrochemical plant in Russia’s Samara Oblast in the morning hours of June 12, residents reported, leading to a fire at the facility. Photos and videos posted to social media purports to show long-range drones over the city of Tolyatti ahead of the attack. – Russian petrochemical plants reportedly struck by Ukrainian drones hundreds of kilometers from front line
(Barak Ravid – Axios/War on Iran) The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding President Trump claims will soon be signed calls for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen immediately without tolls and for Iran to receive sanctions relief based on compliance, according to a diplomat from one of the mediating countries and a U.S. official. The MOU would extend the ceasefire for 60 days, including in Lebanon, during which time nuclear negotiations would be held. The text includes a framework for addressing Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, though any action on Iran’s nuclear program would depend on a second, more detailed accord. The diplomat from one of the mediating countries, who walked Axios through the latest text, said “the U.S. and Iran have agreed on the text of a deal,” but acknowledged the deal still needed final sign-off. – What’s in the Iran deal Trump says he’s ready to sign
(UN News/Hate Speech) Hate speech is a grave and growing threat to peace and security, Secretary-General António Guterres warned on Thursday, calling for urgent action to break a cycle that can lead to genocide and other atrocity crimes. Mr. Guterres was speaking at UN Headquarters in New York at the launch of the Muscat Plan of Action – an initiative that highlights the role of traditional and Indigenous leaders in promoting peace and strengthening social cohesion. Hate speech “divides communities, dehumanizes entire groups, and sets the stage for bloodshed,” he said. “It is also deliberate – and a core component in the playbook for virtually every genocide and atrocity crime.” – Hate speech spreading ‘faster than ever’, warns UN chief as global action plan is revealed | UN News
(UNNews/Afghanistan, Women) Gender equality agency UN Women is “gravely concerned” by the arrest of at least 30 women in Herat city last weekend in Afghanistan for allegedly violating dress requirements imposed by Taliban authorities. The women allegedly violated decrees which include a requirement to wear a burka or chador with a face mask and a ban on perfume, according to UN independent human rights experts on Thursday. The arrests come amid a growing human rights struggle for women in the country, with the de facto authorities – who returned to power on August 15, 2021 – placing increasing restrictions on women’s education, employment and other basic rights. – ‘Grave concern’ after dozens of women arrested in Afghanistan for dress violations | UN News
(UN News/Human Rights) The UN human rights office (OHCHR) has launched a Global Alliance for Human Rights, a broad coalition aimed at placing the issue at the heart of decision-making, when conflict levels have reached a record high amid deepening inequality and accelerating climate change. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk unveiled the initiative in Geneva, describing it as a direct response to what he called a world “in disarray.” Speaking to UN News, Mr. Türk said the Alliance was designed to channel the energy of people who want change. – ‘Human rights are part of our DNA’: UN launches global alliance to counter rising threats | UN News
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