As a Strait of Hormuz Standoff Grows, Will Trump’s Fragile Iran Ceasefire Hold?

(Mariel Ferragamo, Diana Roy – Council on Foreign Relations) The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on the evening of April 7 after nearly six weeks of fighting that has disrupted global energy markets and spread to a large portion of the Middle East. U.S. President Donald Trump said on social media that he would “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran” on the condition that the country completely and immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But Iran said it had again closed the strait following continued Israeli attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon the day after the ceasefire was called. Trump’s announcement came a mere hour-and-a-half before an 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time deadline that he gave Iran to reopen the waterway—the choke point for nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supply. If Iran did not follow through, the president threatened that “a whole civilization will die tonight.” Earlier that day, the U.S. military carried out a fresh round of strikes on Kharg Island, a small island in the northern Persian Gulf that handles approximately 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports. In a Pentagon press conference on April 8, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Operation Epic Fury had resulted in a “historic and overwhelming victory” in Iran, having decimated its military and rendered the country “combat ineffective for years to come.” However, he added that U.S. military forces are “prepared to defend, prepared to go on offensive, [and] prepared to restart at a moment’s notice” to ensure Iran’s compliance with the ceasefire. Although negotiations for a more permanent agreement are scheduled for April 10 in Islamabad, Pakistan, some experts are skeptical the talks will lead to substantive, long-term change. “There has been no regime change in Iran, the current leadership is not any less radical than their predecessors, the Iranians still have the ability to menace their neighbors, and Iran has leverage over the Strait of Hormuz when it did not before the war began,” Steven A. Cook, Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies, told CFR. “I don’t see how negotiations will change this reality.” – As a Strait of Hormuz Standoff Grows, Will Trump’s Fragile Iran Ceasefire Hold? | Council on Foreign Relations