Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 1, 2026

(Institute for the Study of War) The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces seized the entirety of Luhansk Oblast for the third time over the course of Russia’s full-scale invasion, even though Russian forces have controlled most of Luhansk Oblast since October 2022. The Kremlin’s aggrandized claims about the seizure of Luhansk Oblast are part of a wider coordinated information campaign that aims to create a false sense of urgency to force Ukraine to cede unoccupied parts of Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces conducted another prolonged strike series against Ukraine with a total of 700 drones launched in two waves on the night of March 31 to April 1 and during the day on April 1. Russia’s new tactic of prolonged nighttime and daytime strikes reflects aspects of the way Iran is currently launching drone and missile salvos at Israel and the Gulf. ISW has observed reports of seven Ukrainian drones crashing in Baltic and Finnish territory since March 23, possibly as a result of Russian electronic warfare (EW) efforts. Russian exports of non-energy resources are benefiting from the ongoing war in the Middle East. The Kremlin is reportedly turning to university students as part of its forced covert mobilization efforts. The European Union (EU) will transfer €1.4 billion in proceeds from frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole directions. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 1, 2026 | ISW