Brandon Tran and Gerui Zhang write for The Jamestown Foundation
The purge of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission (CMC) likely stemmed from disagreements with Xi Jinping on People’s Liberation Army (PLA) force modernization and development, suggesting that the PLA may not be ready for a Taiwan contingency in 2027. Despite a loss in combat-tested leaders, Xi may still push the PLA to act in the medium term due to his advanced age and his desire to backfill key positions on the CMC, regardless of the PLA’s readiness. PLA gray zone activities around Taiwan will likely continue as they are seen as crucial “dress rehearsals” for a Taiwan contingency, notwithstanding leadership changes at the top. – After the Purge: Reassessing the Risk to Taiwan – Jamestown
