Arms Control
(Michael Albertson – Atlantic Council) Far from obsolete, arms control remains an important tool as the US manages nuclear competition. A new arms control treaty between the US and Russia makes sense—but its focus should be inspections and information sharing, not numerical limits. Agreements limiting chemical and biological weapons will be next to disappear unless the arms control community changes course quickly. – New START might be dead, but legally binding arms control isn’t – Atlantic Council
Europe – NATO – Russia
(Charlie Edwards – IISS) On 6 March 2026, the Swedish Coast Guard took control of the cargo vessel Caffa in Swedish territorial waters off Trelleborg in the Baltic Sea and launched an investigation into the vessel’s seaworthiness. The coastguard’s action followed swiftly on the heels of Belgium’s armed forces which, together with the French, intercepted and boarded the shadow-fleet tanker Ethera in the North Sea. Belgian prosecutors said the vessel was suspected of sailing under a false flag and carrying forged documents. The boarding followed a 26 January statement by Baltic and North Sea coastal states that raised concerns about the deterioration in maritime safety in the region, and warned about global-navigation-satellite-system interference, automatic-identification-system data manipulation, and the risks posed by sanctions-evasion shipping. Operation Blue Intruder (the Belgian operation to board the Ethera) suggests European NATO member states have decided to adopt a more assertive enforcement posture beyond the Baltic. This shift builds on earlier actions such as the interdiction of the Grinch by French forces in January 2026. Its subsequent detention and the penalty fine to release the vessel set a new precedent by a European NATO member state disrupting sanctions evasion. The Grinch, a crude-oil tanker owned by the Moscow-based Argo Tanker Group and flying under the Comoros flag, was boarded by French naval commandos in the Alboran Sea before being escorted to Marseille-Fos port area. As of early March 2026, the United States (supported by the United Kingdom) and at least eight European coastal states had boarded, detained or seized Russian-linked vessels. Belgium, Finland and France have seized or detained shadow-fleet tankers, while Germany, Italy, Latvia, Norway and Sweden have executed boardings or detentions of cargo and bulk vessels suspected of sabotage, espionage, or sanctions violations. These actions by European coastal states have, in some cases, forced the Kremlin to adapt by reflagging shadow-fleet tankers to the Russian registry to claim sovereign protection, while occasionally deploying military escorts. In late January 2026, the General Skobelev, a Russian military-linked product tanker, was escorted through the English Channel by a Russian corvette. The Kremlin’s aim does not seem to be to protect every shadow-fleet tanker with a military escort but to shape Europe’s perception of its intent to do so, and thereby to protect what it considers to be its most valuable vessels, and raise the political cost of interdiction. Even where enforcement is undertaken nationally and outside a formal NATO framework, the consequences for the Alliance are significant. The Kremlin’s signalling will be aiming to test political cohesion, amplify the threat of escalation, and deter further action by NATO member states in contested waters. – Europe’s coastal states tighten enforcement on Russia’s shadow fleet
Georgia – Iran
(Brian Cooper – The Jamestown Foundation) The ruling Georgian Dream government issued a controversial statement on March 2 about events in Iran, expressing condolences for Iranian losses and solidarity with Persian Gulf Arab states while avoiding explicit support for the United States or Israel, reflecting a policy shift away from traditional Western partners. Diplomatic tensions intensified after an unidentified Georgian official visited the Iranian embassy to offer condolences, prompting criticism from Israel and raising concerns about Tbilisi’s ties with Tehran amid growing Iranian influence and controversial diplomatic gestures. Georgia’s increasing engagement with Iran—through diplomatic visits, alleged sanctions circumvention, and the expansion of Iranian religious and educational networks—complicates its geopolitical balancing act. – Georgia’s Ties with Iran Shift Its Foreign Policy – Jamestown
Global Digital Governance
(Wakana Asano – CSIS) In the first article of this two-part series examining how emerging economies are shaping global digital governance, analysis of specific major economies – India, Brazil, Nigeria and South Africa – illustrated how emerging countries are creating their sovereign Digital Public Infrastructures (DPIs). This second article in the series examines two other dimensions of the approaches to digital governance taken by India, Brazil, Nigeria and South Africa: their country-first regulations regarding data, artificial intelligence (AI) and commerce; and the steps they have taken towards transnational cooperation. The international tech order is becoming increasingly disparate. Different systems for data, AI and commerce are being promoted by countries and regional organisations alike – from the European Union, the African Union (AU) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to initiatives led by China, Singapore and the United States. Emerging economies must navigate an increasingly varied landscape of digital regulations. This combination of existing and emerging digital-governance frameworks brings with it an escalating risk of fragmentation driven by different principles, domestic politics, and economic and diplomatic ties. Growing fragmentation also has implications for emerging economies in terms of prospective collaboration on digital governance. – Emerging economies and the future of global digital governance: data, AI and transnational cooperation
Iran and beyond
(IISS) The ferocious intensity and widening scope of the full-scale war pitting the United States and Israel against Iran is radiating across the Middle East. The two sides are racing to inflict as much damage on the other as possible, given their respective military constraints and goals. The US and Israel have announced maximalist objectives and retain significant military advantage, but the stated aims (regime change and capitulation) remain difficult to achieve. Unable to defend itself, Iran has chosen to impose a cost on its neighbours, regional economies and the global economy to force a de-escalation. The conflict is expanding as Iran enrols its partners and widens its target set, European countries deploy forces to protect their allies, and the US and Israel mobilise domestic Iranian actors. In this webinar, IISS experts examine the military dimensions of the war and how to think about the respective strategies of the warring sides; the political effects of the war; the regional fallout both in the Gulf region and in the Levant; and the prospects for further escalation or a diplomatic off-ramp. – War in the Middle East: Escalation and Prospects
(Clayton Seigle – CSIS) Global energy markets began the second week of the Mideast Gulf war with a historic price spike as energy exports from the region remained idle and fighting intensified among Iran, Israel, the United States, and Gulf nations. This Critical Questions examines the stakes for world energy markets and some of the proposed measures to address the looming oil and gas shortfall. – The Iran Conflict Is Sending Oil Prices Soaring—What Happens Next?
(The Soufan Center) Iran’s defense doctrine relies on a ‘mosaic defense’ strategy that it has developed over the past decades. The decentralization of Iran’s command-and-control has made it resilient to U.S. and Israeli decapitation strikes. Iran relies on irregular tactics to drag out the war, primarily through economic coercion and cost asymmetry. There are significant concerns among U.S. law enforcement authorities that an attack from “sleeper cells” could be conducted on American soil in response to ongoing hostilities. – Iran’s ‘Mosaic Defense’ Strategy: Decentralization as Resilience Factor – The Soufan Center
Nepal
(Joshua Kurlantzick – Council on Foreign Relations) As I have noted in many prior articles, despite the wave of Gen Z protests that have swept through Asia in recent years and carried over to other parts of the globe (from Togo to Madagascar to the Caribbean), in the past year most of the youth protests led to minimal results at the ballot box, at least in Asia. Since the beginning of the year, voters in Thailand chose a conservative, pro-military party to lead the new ruling coalition, while the progressive People’s Party, the party most aligned with the Gen Z demonstrators that rocked Bangkok several years ago, underperformed its predicted results. In Japan, recent elections resulted in a massive victory for the Liberal Democratic Party, the ultimate establishment party. And in February in Bangladesh, where in June and July 2024 student-led protests had ousted Sheikh Hasina and her increasingly authoritarian Awami League government, the leading Gen Z party won six seats in national elections. Meanwhile, the Awami League’s establishment counterpart, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, dominated voting and controls parliament. But last week in Nepal, Gen Z triumphed – big time. In September of last year, large, often Gen Z-led protests in Nepal, some of which turned violent, toppled the government, as anger boiled over about nepotism, corruption, a crackdown on social media sites and the deaths of protestors. Following that government collapse, an interim government was formed and eventually held elections last Thursday. Counting is not yet complete in a rugged and rural country, but the outcome seems clear. As the BBC notes: “Partial counting of votes in last week’s general election in Nepal shows the party of rapper and ex-Kathmandu mayor Balendra Shah on course to win a landslide majority in parliament. The Rastriya Swatantra Party’s [Shah’s party] win marks the first time in decades that a single party has garnered a majority in Nepal which has a two-system format that makes it difficult for any one party to win outright.” – In Nepal, Gen Z Gets a Victory – and the Country May Too | Council on Foreign Relations
Russia
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian media and commentators argue that U.S.–Israeli airstrikes alone are unlikely to defeat the Iranian regime, predicting that Tehran can outlast political resolve in Washington. Russian President Vladimir Putin has responded cautiously to the war, condemning the killing of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but otherwise staying largely silent to balance Russia’s partnership with Iran while avoiding confrontation with U.S. President Donald Trump. Russian analysts predict mixed consequences from the conflict in Iran. The Kremlin may see short-term gains from higher oil prices, but it is also facing disruptions to its sanction-bypassing trade networks and uncertainty about how the conflict could affect its war against Ukraine. – Russia Expects Iran to Endure U.S.–Israeli Strikes – Jamestown
Warfare
(Michael C. Horowitz, Lauren Kahn – Council on Foreign Relations) Operation Epic Fury and Iran’s response to ongoing U.S. and Israeli attacks represent clear evidence that we are now in the era of precise mass in war, the high-volume use of low-cost, increasingly autonomous systems with high-accuracy guidance. In other words, there are a lot more drones on battlefields today, but not the ones you remember from the global war on terrorism. This shows that the lessons learned from the war in Ukraine, which has now dragged on for more than four years, are shaping the behavior of the United States, Iran, and Israel. The world is seeing the spread of a new form of warfare. The United States is not the passenger it once was in this new format. The first wave of U.S. attacks as part of Operation Epic Fury marked the initial operational deployment of the LUCAS (low-cost unmanned combat attack system). Reverse-engineered from the Iranian Shahed-136 drone, the long-range, one-way attack loitering munition was sped through the Pentagon’s acquisition pipeline in just eighteen months, and it was only recently embedded in U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) in December 2025. The United States’ deployment of LUCAS illustrates that the Pentagon has internalized some of the lessons learned from the war in Ukraine. In the four years since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, the world has watched as the first modern conflict in Europe since World War II has reshaped the way we think about military capabilities. In the same way that the Gulf War came to be known as the first “space war”—given the sudden proliferation and prevalence of space-based capabilities, including satellite communications and GPS—so too are the Russia-Ukraine war and the conflict in Iran shaking out to be the first artificial intelligence wars, full-scale cyberwars, commercial space wars, and of course, drone wars. – The New Era of Drone Warfare Takes Root in Iran | Council on Foreign Relations
