(Institute for the Study of War)
US Military Action Against Iran: US President Donald Trump stated on February 19 that he will likely decide on whether the United States will strike Iran within the next ten days.
Iranian-Russian Naval Cooperation: Iranian naval forces hosted an Iranian-Russian naval exercise on February 19, which Iran likely used to signal its solidarity with Russia and practice offensive and defensive maneuvers in and around the Strait of Hormuz in preparation for US military action against Iran.
Iranian Anti-Regime Protests: Iranians held the most protests on a single day since January 11 on February 19. There were five large protests and 14 other protests. ISW-CTP classifies protests as “large” when they are estimated to include at least a thousand protesters. These protests illustrate that the motivations driving the initial days of the protest movement have not abated despite the pause in protests in late January and early February 2026.
Hezbollah’s Participation in a US-Iran Conflict: Israeli and Lebanese officials appear to believe that there is a legitimate chance that Hezbollah may participate in any future conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Hezbollah Disarmament: Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem threatened that Hezbollah could retaliate and “defend” against Israel’s frequent airstrikes targeting its operatives in Lebanon during a speech on February 16. Hezbollah is almost certainly attempting to highlight the Lebanese government’s inaction against Israel to justify its position as the “defender” of Lebanon. Hezbollah has long employed this incorrect narrative about its role in Lebanese defense.
The Syrian Government’s Control of Suwayda Province: The Syrian government is likely undermining the governing authority in Suwayda Province and pressuring it militarily to eventually reintegrate Suwayda into the Syrian state either through negotiations or through a rapid military offensive that leverages internal fissures in the Suwayda governing authority.
US Forces in Syria: US officials told the Wall Street Journal on February 18 that all remaining US forces are currently withdrawing from Syria as part of a “conditions-based” withdrawal. The withdrawal would be contingent on Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham activity.
