Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20, 2025 (Institute for the Study of War)

Kremlin insider statements continue to indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his strategy that Russian forces will be able to win a war of attrition against Ukraine and the West and that the West has thus far failed to convince Putin to reevaluate his strategy.
Putin may have allowed these Kremlin sources to share his logic with Bloomberg and likely seeks to leverage Bloomberg‘s article to exploit friction between European and US officials, to feed into the wider Russian narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable, and to create fear in Ukrainian society ahead of Winter 2025-2026.
Russian forces conducted one of the largest drone and missile strikes against Ukraine in recent weeks on the night of September 19 to 20.
Russia is intensifying its efforts to test NATO’s defensive capabilities and resolve by violating NATO members’ safety zones in the air domain.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the start of Ukraine’s managed weapons exports program.
Russian commanders continue to order Russian forces to execute Ukrainian civilians and commit acts of perfidy as part of an ongoing trend of Russian commanders systematizing deliberate war crimes among Russian units.
Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Lyman, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Velykomykhailivka.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20, 2025 | ISW

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