The Russian military command continues to signal its commitment to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory that posits that Russia can win a war of attrition against Ukraine.
ISW continues to assess that a Russian victory is not inevitable, however, and that Ukraine and the West can leverage several key Russian weaknesses to force Putin to change his calculus and engage in good-faith negotiations.
The Kremlin continues to demonstrate its commitment to its original war aims in Ukraine.
The Kremlin is also attempting to manipulate the Trump administration into normalizing US-Russian bilateral relations without concluding the war in Ukraine – contrary to Trump’s desired timeline of working on bilateral relations after concluding a peace in Ukraine.
The Kremlin appears to be conducting a coordinated information campaign threatening Finland.
Lithuanian authorities connected Russian military intelligence to several incidents of arson in Europe in late July 2024 that were likely part of Russia’s ongoing hybrid warfare campaign that aims to sow fear and discord within Europe.
Ukraine and Poland agreed on joint drone development and training mechanisms following the Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace on September 9 to 10.
The Kremlin will likely introduce a quota to systematically appoint hand-selected veterans of the war in Ukraine to positions in municipal, regional, and federal government in support of the Kremlin’s long-term campaign to militarize Russian society.
Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly extended Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov’s military service for five more years, demonstrating how Putin continues to retain an aging cadre of loyalists despite his stated efforts to raise a new, younger elite.
Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Velykomykhailivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 18, 2025 (Institute for the Study of War)
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