Myanmar’s junta is planning wartime elections in December 2025 and January 2026. Externally and internally, perspectives on the polls vary dramatically. The difference in views are facilitated by numerous ambiguities, including in the design and likely outcomes of the polls. Well-established benchmarks from political science help clarify the limits of the exercise, what to expect if it proceeds, and implications for stakeholders. In short, the literature shows, among other things, that the elected parliament in Myanmar would fundamentally lack legitimacy and a national mandate. China and Thailand see the polls as a potential step towards normalising engagement; domestically, the military and aligned parties seek legitimation of their rule, while a small number of pro-democracy parties hope that dispersing power — at least on paper — provides a pathway out of political deadlock and instability. Most international and domestic actors, however, remain deeply critical.
Myanmar’s Wartime Polls: Managing Expectations (Kai Ostwald – FULCRUM)
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