From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: China-Hungary; CRINK; Europe-Ukraine; Georgia-Azerbaijan-Armenia; Global Order; Russia (LNG Sanctions Evasion); Russia-Ukraine; Syria; US; US-Venezuela
China – Hungary
(Joseph Bebel – The Jamestown Foundation) Beijing and Budapest have reportedly finalized the details of an extradition treaty that reflects Beijing’s growing involvement in Hungary’s internal security. The new treaty comes as the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has begun investing heavily in various sectors of the Hungarian economy. It builds on the presence of “illegal Chinese police stations” in Hungary and an agreement that allows PRC police to patrol jointly with Hungarian law enforcement. Beijing is implementing a strategy similar to that seen in the Balkans and elsewhere and will likely use the foothold in Hungary to monitor citizens abroad and hunt down dissidents. Beijing has used a global network of spies and political pressure to target and hunt down dissidents—especially those of the Uyghur and Tibetan diasporas—and represents the PRC’s willingness to violate international law and other countries’ domestic laws for political ends. – Extradition Treaty Signals Beijing’s Wider Designs in Hungary – Jamestown
CRINK
(Maria Snegovaya, Nicholas Fenton, and Tina Dolbaia – CSIS) China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (CRINK) face obstacles to economic collaboration such as geographic distance, sanctions, mutual mistrust, and self-sufficiency goals. Reliable data on CRINK’s economic and trade ties is limited due to lack of reported data from Iran and North Korea and the rise of informal and shadow trade since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Existing data reveals uneven patterns, although expanding bilateral agreements, strengthening energy ties, and increasing trade in dual-use technologies point to growing economic cooperation among the CRINK countries. CRINK also seeks to integrate their financial and payment systems to bypass Western sanctions by prioritizing national currencies over the U.S. dollar. The post-2022 China-Russia relationship drives most of the momentum, while Iran and North Korea exhibit expanding but considerably weaker integration with the rest of the group. China is nevertheless a cautious actor that hedges its bets in energy trade with Russia and Iran, avoids flagrant sanctions violations, and faces constraints from its own economic slowdown. – CRINK Economic Ties: Uneven Patterns of Collaboration
Europe – Ukraine
(Atlantic Council) “Nous sommes prêts,” French President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday. “We are ready.” Speaking after a meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing” in Paris, Macron announced that twenty-six European nations had agreed to participate in a postwar force by air, land, or sea to ensure Ukraine’s security and deter further Russian aggression after a peace agreement is reached between Kyiv and Moscow. What would fulfilling this commitment look like in practice? And how should the United States view this development amid its efforts to end the war? – Twenty-six European countries have committed to help defend Ukraine after the war. What’s next? – Atlantic Council
Georgia – Azerbaijan – Armenia
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) The recent peace declaration between Armenia and Azerbaijan on August 8—mediated by the United States—has stirred great interest in Georgia, as it signals an increased Western presence in the South Caucasus. The ruling Georgian Dream party has sought to convince the West that, despite its authoritarian policies and stronger ties with Russia and the People’s Republic of China, the West must nevertheless accept Georgia as it is; otherwise, Georgia will fully turn East. Renewed Western influence in the South Caucasus means Georgian Dream’s ability to engage in “geopolitical bargaining” with the West vis-à-vis the East is weakening, while the West is acquiring more tools to exert pressure on the Georgian Dream. – Consequences for Georgia After the Peace Declaration Between Azerbaijan and Armenia – Jamestown
Global Order
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) This week offered two starkly different versions of the global future. In Beijing, the twenty-fifth meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, followed by the spectacle of a massive military parade, was a startling display of authoritarian solidarity. It included the first joint public appearance of Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. It was nothing less than a bid to legitimize a new international order centered around Beijing and Moscow. In Paris, some thirty democratic leaders of a self-selected “coalition of the willing” convened to reinforce their support for Ukraine—assembling the pieces for a security guarantee that would safeguard Kyiv’s sovereignty and independence. The leaders represented not only European nations, but Japan, Australia, and Canada as well. Think of them as a counterweight to the “Axis of Upheaval,” defending the post-1945 rules-based international system. What both meetings had in common was that the United States was physically absent but very much present in what motivated each gathering. The meeting in Beijing was organized with the intention of replacing the global system that the United States has grown less interested in leading, while the one in Paris aimed to perpetuate that system, with less Washington and more Europe. – In Beijing and Paris, a tale of two global futures – Atlantic Council
Russia (LNG Sanctions Evasion)
(Olga Khakova – Atlantic Council) Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine injected new urgency into the Kremlin’s push to reduce dependence on European buyers, after Putin’s failed gamble to weaponize gas supplies did not coerce Europe into abandoning Ukraine. With limited alternatives for West Siberian gas, geography, geopolitics, and market size point squarely to China. Years of negotiations over the Russia–Mongolia–China Power of Siberia 2 pipeline culminated in a splashy memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed during Putin’s visit to China. Yet the obstacles to realizing what Gazprom’s Alexei Miller recently described as “the world’s biggest and most capital-intensive gas project” have only multiplied over the past three and a half years. This geopolitical theater, however, should not distract the United States and Europe from a far more urgent priority: curbing Russian evasion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) sanctions and placing additional sanctions on remaining projects and volumes. Every loophole leaks funds that sustain Russia’s daily atrocities in Ukraine. – China-Russia natural gas deal is a distraction – Atlantic Council
Russia – Ukraine
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian fatality estimates in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine vary widely, but analysis of open-source data suggests they exceed 175,000 between February 2022 and July 2025. Older Russian men and ethnic minorities are disproportionately dying in the war—many deaths come from regions such as Buryatia, Bashkiria, and Tatarstan, while Moscow and St. Petersburg contribute relatively fewer fatalities. Ahiska Turks are estimated to be overrepresented by approximately 800 percent in fatality data, while Cossack mobilization structures increase the proportion of losses in certain regions, showing how Russia’s war strains vulnerable and semi-organized groups. – Older Russian Men and Ethnic Minorities Disproportionately Dying in Kremlin’s War Against Ukraine – Jamestown
(Maksym Beznosiuk – The Jamestown Foundation) The Kremlin is systematically erasing Ukrainian identity in occupied regions to solidify long-term submission and control by banning Ukrainian in schools, rewriting history, and indoctrinating children. In the occupied territories, the Kremlin is linking Russian citizenship to access to healthcare, SIM cards, and basic services, coercing Ukrainians into seeking Russian passports and turning survival into a lever for loyalty. Forced mobilization of Ukrainians, including abducted children reaching adulthood, indicates how occupation policies feed directly into Russia’s war machine and amount to demographic warfare. – Kremlin Works to Erase Ukrainian Identity and Militarize Occupied Regions – Jamestown
Syria
(Atlantic Council) It’s been nearly nine months since Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad fled his country for Russia, ending his family’s decadeslong rule. Since taking power in a sweeping offensive last December, the new government led by former rebel leader Ahmad al-Sharaa has faced the immense challenges of rebuilding the country and managing tensions among the country’s disparate ethnic and religious groups in the wake of violence targeting Syria’s Druze and Alawite minorities. How much progress has Sharaa’s administration made in its aims to revive the economy, centralize the government, and ensure the country’s security? – Dispatches from Damascus: The state of Syria’s postwar transition nine months after Assad’s fall – Atlantic Council
US
(Scott R. Anderson, Fred Dews – Brookings) Washington, D.C., is unique because it has a different relationship with the federal government than do U.S. states, and that includes the laws governing the National Guard. The D.C. National Guard, unlike state Guards that report to the state governor, reports to the president of the United States. The president can call out state National Guards to combat insurrections, domestic violence, invasions, and natural disasters. But in California, President Trump federalized Guard troops under the “protective principle,” an inferred theory the executive branch has advanced for several decades. The federal government is obligated to protect U.S. states against invasion by other U.S. states. So what happens when one state governor sends their National Guard to another state without that governor’s permission? – What’s the president’s legal basis for sending National Guard troops to DC streets? | Brookings
US – Venezuela
(The Soufan Center) Earlier this week, the U.S. attacked a four-engine speedboat with members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua on board, killing eleven members of the group, which President Trump labeled as “narcoterrorists.”. The strike represents a radical departure from traditional U.S. counternarcotics operations, which are typically delegated to the U.S. Coast Guard and involve intercepting and boarding vessels to search and seize narcotics, instead of attacking these boats with airstrikes. Following the American military buildup in Latin American waters, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro deployed 4.5 million militiamen around Venezuela to protect the country from what Maduro has called “imperial aggression,” and has stated that the country is at “maximum preparedness” against U.S. hostility. Caracas continues to maintain close relations with a coterie of U.S. adversaries, including Iran and Russia, while also pursuing policies that have led to an exodus of Venezuelans out of the country, desperate to escape the failed state, which remains in an economic morass despite its vast oil wealth. – U.S. Strikes Venezuelan Narco-Terrorists as Tensions with Caracas Escalate – The Soufan Center
